Posted:
#76
Quote Originally Posted by golfkat:
No wonder I have trouble beating sports. Thanks bodio.
No wonder I have trouble beating sports. Thanks bodio.
No problemo Golf!
good luck buddy
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*** Packers/Steelers SUPER BOWL Play + Detailed Analysis ***
Posted:
#77
Quote Originally Posted by Gold_Rush:
I find that most super bowls go over unless they set the line way to high like last year.. But here we have the Defense taking center stage which would say UNDER to the general public,, so I think it will go over this time.. I dont care too much if the line went down a half point, last year the line went up if I recall.
Thanks man you as well!!
I like the over for a few reasons, none really statistical or anything.
I find that most super bowls go over unless they set the line way to high like last year.. But here we have the Defense taking center stage which would say UNDER to the general public,, so I think it will go over this time.. I dont care too much if the line went down a half point, last year the line went up if I recall.
I feel like the NFL wants a ton of scoring and you are less likely to see a 56 yard TD bomb come back for holding.. they want points in this World Wide TV event.. They will let things go for the sake of ratings and action..You know what I mean?
2nd, these 2 QB's are really really good at avoiding pressure and making plays... Both have speedy WR's and can go down the field in a heartbeat and its on turf without wind and snow mud so if the QB's get loose, and from what i have seen - they will. Lots of passes in this game. Also they do not know each other like the bears and pack did.. 2 of the 3 Pack playoff games went over the #.
I think Rodgers will have a much better game than he had vs Chicago.. Steelers are unlikely to get blanked in 2nd H and amazingly (Thanks to the DEFENSE ) that game went over last week even though one team had 0 points in the 2nd H.
GL buddy 
Thanks, good luck to you too...
A few quick points:
#1: Turf and good weather doesn't just benefit the offense. It actually helps the defense a lot more. It's easier to play offense because you know where you're going. The defender has to 'shadow' the offensive player not knowing which way he's going. In bad weather with poor surface, it's a lot more difficult. In good conditions, defenders are able to use their athleticism much more effectively.
My point here is, be careful assuming that good conditions only help the offense. They help the defense just as much, if not more.
#2: the O/U in the last 6 Superbowls is 1-5...I know you mentioned that you feel it's because the line is too high, but what makes you think that 45 isn't too high for this game? In any case, Colts and Saints did not have defenses the caliber of these two. Different teams, different game, hopefully the same outcome (UNDER)
good luck bud
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Posted:
#78
Quote Originally Posted by Crusher13:
These are just some of my VERY SAME sentiments. THIS game IS going over the total!
These are just some of my VERY SAME sentiments. THIS game IS going over the total!
We shall see 
If it does, oh well. It will be just 1 loss. Remember, don't go crazy betting more than you do normally. It's just ANOTHER game.
It's not more important than the college bball game you're betting on today, or the NBA game you're placing a wager on tomorrow, or that all-important 'best movie of the year' bet you're going to make during Oscars. JUST ANOTHER GAME guys. Don't lose your ass off. Keep your bankroll intact and enjoy it!
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Posted:
#80
Jumping Sweet Jesus, BODIO...just another insanely ridiculous, killer write-up. Whether they agree with you or not, major appreciation has to be given to ya!
I do agree with you and will be waiting on the number to move up north of 45 and hit the UNDER. Also, taking a small SB teaser with GB +3.5 and under 51/52?
Thanks again for your time and efforts and Good luck to all.
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Posted:
#81
Quote Originally Posted by Jmoe_1014:
if joe public is playing the over....Why is the line going down so much?....if it is right that the sharps are going under....is it enough to outweigh the over?...and is under still the play in your opinion?
if joe public is playing the over....Why is the line going down so much?....if it is right that the sharps are going under....is it enough to outweigh the over?...and is under still the play in your opinion?
My analysis of the UNDER had nothing to do with the line moves. The RLM is a 'bonus' but that's not why I feel that the UNDER is the play.
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Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by evilelvis:
Jumping Sweet Jesus, BODIO...just another insanely ridiculous, killer write-up. Whether they agree with you or not, major appreciation has to be given to ya!
I do agree with you and will be waiting on the number to move up north of 45 and hit the UNDER. Also, taking a small SB teaser with GB +3.5 and under 51/52?
Thanks again for your time and efforts and Good luck to all.
No problemo Evil. Glad you enjoyed it.
My hopes of this # reaching 47 by game-time won't happen, but I still see it going up over 45. Definitely agree with your strategy of waiting till next week.
Good luck buddy!
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Posted:
#84
just my 2 cents I'd throw in...........I like the over myself and at 44.5 is good enough for me because I reckon the team that settles in better will be the Steelers having the experience which is absolutely priceless in this game and they will score 1st and probably get a turnover too add extra points on the board early but the Packers will settle and play chase up football from the start so the over will likely hit and we seen that the Steelers can play fast high scoring tempo if needed.
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Posted:
#89
Quote Originally Posted by Geelong:
just my 2 cents I'd throw in...........I like the over myself and at 44.5 is good enough for me because I reckon the team that settles in better will be the Steelers having the experience which is absolutely priceless in this game and they will score 1st and probably get a turnover too add extra points on the board early but the Packers will settle and play chase up football from the start so the over will likely hit and we seen that the Steelers can play fast high scoring tempo if needed.
just my 2 cents I'd throw in...........I like the over myself and at 44.5 is good enough for me because I reckon the team that settles in better will be the Steelers having the experience which is absolutely priceless in this game and they will score 1st and probably get a turnover too add extra points on the board early but the Packers will settle and play chase up football from the start so the over will likely hit and we seen that the Steelers can play fast high scoring tempo if needed.
Good luck brutha.
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