Omega 2016 NFL Week 3

kYes the moment you have all been waiting for :) ,,, the Magic Man is back with his special handicapping insight. The last two seasons, my official picks have been in the positive unit territory. My handicapping style is quality handicapping, as compared to fundamental handicapping, trend handicapping, and other types of technical handicapping. The quality handicapping style is to filter out probable weak performing games, and then use stats to bet for or bet against teams.

My first filter is to throw out games where the line is 7 or more. My betting decisions are based on number crunching, and at 7 or more points, I lose the edge with my calculations. This also puts less money at risk and lowers the handicapping analysis amount.

After filtering, here are the first selections on my possible card. I may still eliminate more games at a later time. Also, I have more calculations to do. I am pressed for time, so I will only be posting about point-per-play differential ( pppd ). For this post, this metric will be ranked from 1 ( highest ) to 32 ( lowest ).

This thread is about using performance metrics to help make betting decisions. If you disagree with my selections, post your reasons and make your case. After I do my analysis I and a selection fails, I was incorrect, as compared to being wrong.
Redskins ( - 4.5 )  Giants

The Redskins have a pppd of 30.
The Giants have a pppd of 10.
This is an initial temporary lean away from the Redskins.

Ravens  ( + 1 )   Jags

The Ravens have a pppd of 11.
The Jags have a pppd of 32.

A temporary lean away from the Jags. I prefer lean-for a team, but lean-away  are a useful and simple tool.

Raiders   ( - 1.5 )   Titans

The Raiders have a pppd of 24.
The Titans have a pppd of 22.

At the moment, I dont like either side. Both teams below a 20 ranking is a yellow flag for me. It is a long season, and this is a marathon, not a sprint. There may be other factors helping me make a betting decision, but for now this game is on my back burner.

Cards ( + 4 )  Bills

The Cards have a pppd of 1.
The Bills have a pppd of 12.

What I usually do is take the number and give it a grade. I would say the Cards have a genuine grade of A in terms of pppd. I would also add the Bills are probably in the average range of pppd. I have an initial lean for the Cards.

Broncos ( - 3 )  Bengals

The Broncos have a pppd of 4.
The Bengals have a pppd of 20.

I actually expected the Bengals to have a higher pppd, and the Bengals do have a much better record at home. i dont have a lean either way.

Rams ( -5.5 )  Bucs

The Rams have a pppd of 28.
The Bucs have a pppd of 31.
This is another game I put on my backburner, using the both teams below a ranking of 20 rule.

Jets ( - 3 ) Chiefs

The Jets have a pppd of 25.
The Chiefs have a pppd of 15.
I usually love betting on these teams in most cases. But something is amiss with both of them to give me an edge betting wise. I will need to further analyze this game.

Steelers ( + 3.5 )  Eagles

The Steelers have a pppd of 2.
The Eagles have a pppd of 3.

My first guess is the Eagles rookie qb comes down to Earth.

Chargers  ( - 2.5 )   Colts

The Chargers have a pppd of 5.
The Colts have a pppd of 24.
I do think the Chargers should have a lower pppd. The Colts look like they should have a genuine rank of pppd in the bottom tier, giving them a grade of D or F. This is an initial lean away from the Colts.

Falcons ( - 3 )  Saints

The Falcons have a pppd of 17.
The Saints have a pppd of 16.
This metric does not give me an edge either way.


 

As one of my experiments this season, I will be posting NFL power rankings based on the Covers Power Rankings and the ESPN Power Index. These are objective rankings as far as I can tell. I will also be grouping them by letter grades.

Group "A"
Cards, Panthers, Steelers, Pats, Packers, Browns ... just kidding Broncos

Group "B"
Vikings, Bengals, Chiefs, Seahawks, Texans, Jets

Group "C"
Chargers, Cowboys, Giants, Niners, Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Falcons

Group "D"
Raiders, Dolphins, Redskins, Saints, Bucs, Rams

Group "F"
Browns, Bears, Jags, Colts, Titans, Bills

My favorite types of games to bet are "B" teams versus "C" teams.
Both teams usually play in the performance range, and over emotion is not too much of a factor. i would like to have a A+,A, A-, B+, B, B-, etc setup, but for now I employing the KISS strategy.

Always a good read man. I like to see different and unique approaches to handicapping.

In the gambling world being incorrect and wrong are they same thing. Good luck.

I let Vegas and the people who handle the power rankings handle things like strength of schedule. That is where filtering games based on the line comes in handy. The situation ends up taking care of itself. Also, things start to settle after looking at the big picture. One of the things we handicappers have to quantify is how good or bad team x is overall. I was actually thinking about that this week specifically with the Giants and Eagles.

One of the key concepts of quality handicapping is to go with good teams and go against bad teams. For those people going DUH, look at how many gamblers take bad teams and the points and end up losing.

In addition, another key concept is maintaining a positive mental attitude. Being incorrect means I did the analysis. The very good handicappers fail 40 % of the time. Being wrong is taking a guess.

Now lets put some of these concepts into action. In the past, I usually didn't rely on power ratings for various reasons, but at their core, I respect the Covers and ESPN power rankings average.  This puts the Giants in Group "C", an average NFL team. So the lean can be for or against.

Next, let's examine the Redskins. With my PR setup, they have a grade of "D". I am an omega male and make an effort to set myself up for success. Betting on a below average team is not setting yourself up for success. And if you think the Redskins should have a grade of F, that is fine with me.

Here is some further analysis. My new favorite performance metric is point-per-play-difference. The Giants have a ranking of 10 ( Grade B ), and the Redskins have a ranking of 30 ( Grade F ). Another personal stat I examine is point quality, which has a scale from 1 to 10. The Giants have a point quality of 7.03. The Redskins have a point quality of 1.85.
My overall favorite personal stat is inertia , which is a ball control efficiency ratings. The team that controls the ball, controls the game, and controls the cover. :)  The Giants have an inertia of 3.30 ( Grade A ), and the Redskins have an inertia of 1.30 ( Grade F ).

Now there you have an objective analysis based on several factors.

Even though I have been doing this for a few seasons, I still have betting anxiety. So to deal with that situation, I start out with a small number of bets and small unit size.

Giants ( - 4.5 ) ( official pick )
The other selection on my card is Cards ( - 4 ). ( official pick )
The third game I am thinking  about is a lean on the Steelers ( - 3.5 ). I have not crunched all the numbers on the Steelers-Eagles game yet.

Btw @undersac, I do welcome your thoughts on Strength Of Schedule. I handicap it indirectly, and do find it reasonable to handicap it directly.

Ok here are the numbers breakdown on the Steelers Eagles game.
Steelers ( + 3.5 ) Eagles
The Steelers have a pppd rank of 2 ( Grade A ).
The Eagles have a pppd rank of 3 ( Grade A ).
The Steelers have a point quality of Grade A.
The Eagles have a point quality of Grade A.
The Steelers have an inertia of 2.41 ( Grade B ).
The Eagles have an inertia of 2.26 ( Grade B )
The rule with inertia is to take the higher team.
The Steelers have a tempo of ( - 2 ).
The Eagles have a tempo of ( + 7 ).
Tempo is my least reliable stat. A ( - 2 ) tempo is really not bad.

With it being so early in the season, I will skip this game, so the Steelers will have a HUGE blowout.

This is where being a lazy coward helps. I almost bet the Steelers
While I did get off to an 0-2 start, I will be back next week ready to roll.