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shivaseven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 460

Posted: Jan. 4, 2012 - 10:39 PM ET #26

Quote Originally Posted by theKCco_op:

Not my info but since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule are 27-9 straight up and 27-9 against the spread (75% winners)

SOS differential of 10 or more is 16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS (83% winners)

Teams with a better SOS that are underdogs are 10-5 SU, 13-2 ATS.

Cincy SOS #23 v Hou #32

Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 6-2 ATS and 7-1 ATS.

Both Detroit and Denver fit this with Det SOS #4 v NO SOS #31 and Den SOS #8 v Pit SOS #26

Wow, really love these stats and will use them in the future. One question - Where can I find SOS information on the web? Thanks in advance.

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shivaseven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 460

Posted: Jan. 4, 2012 - 10:46 PM ET #27

PTB thanks a lot for starting this thread and thanks to the other guys who have resisted having this degrade into a slanging match. Good Luck to everyone on the weekend.

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PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Jan. 4, 2012 - 10:56 PM ET #28

Quote Originally Posted by shivaseven:

Wow, really love these stats and will use them in the future. One question - Where can I find SOS information on the web? Thanks in advance.

I was wondering the same thing Shiva..............I see the SOS on ESPN under NFL playoff standings but the teams are not listed like KC has listed them numerical..............ESPN has the percentage for each team.............

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PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:27 AM ET #29

Some more trends:

Home favorites of 10 or more points in the wildcard round are 2-0 ATS since 2002.................Play on: Saints -10.5

Teams with a better SU record in the regular season are 8-14 ATS in the wildcard round since 2004...............Play on: Bengals +3, Lions +10.5, Giants -3, Broncos +8

Division champs in the wildcard round are 17-23 ATS since 2002................Play on: Falcons +3, Bengals +3, Lions +10.5, Steelers -8

^^^^^^^^^^^^the angles above conflict with each other giving both sides of a game. Only team I see that all the angles favor are the Bengals +3

Remember this: any team that played in the wildcard games are 6-0 ATS if they ended up in the super bowl past 6 times......................so if any of these wildcard teams end up in the big game, they have a great shot of covering..............

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shivaseven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 460

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:16 AM ET #30

PTB: Original article with complete logs on strength of schedule and wildcard outcomes can be found at Sports Memo.

ORIGINAL POST:

Not my info but since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule are 27-9 straight up and 27-9 against the spread (75% winners)

SOS differential of 10 or more is 16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS (83% winners)

Teams with a better SOS that are underdogs are 10-5 SU, 13-2 ATS.

Cincy SOS #23 v Hou #32

Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 6-2 ATS and 7-1 ATS.

Both Detroit and Denver fit this with Det SOS #4 v NO SOS #31 and Den SOS #8 v Pit SOS #26

Found a site that has teams adjusted strength of schedule which is basically a teams strength of schedule with two teams head to head washed out which means a teams own loss or victory in said matchup can't affect it's own S.O.S.

ADJUSTED S.O.S.

Very interesting - HOUSTON and N.O had the easiest strength of schedules this year in the NFL and DETROIT had the second toughest schedule.

[6] NYG .5250 vs [t 21] ATL .4875

[2] DET .5458 vs [t31] NO .4583

[t12] PITTS .5083 vs [7] DEN .5208

[t17] CIN .4598 vs [t31] HOUS .4583

LINKS:

https://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/1299408

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PTB: Original article with complete logs on strength of schedule and wildcard outcomes can be found at Sports Memo.

ORIGINAL POST:

Not my info but since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule are 27-9 straight up and 27-9 against the spread (75% winners)

SOS differential of 10 or more is 16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS (83% winners)

Teams with a better SOS that are underdogs are 10-5 SU, 13-2 ATS.

Cincy SOS #23 v Hou #32

Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 6-2 ATS and 7-1 ATS.

Both Detroit and Denver fit this with Det SOS #4 v NO SOS #31 and Den SOS #8 v Pit SOS #26

Found a site that has teams adjusted strength of schedule which is basically a teams strength of schedule with two teams head to head washed out which means a teams own loss or victory in said matchup can't affect it's own S.O.S.

ADJUSTED S.O.S.

Very interesting - HOUSTON and N.O had the easiest strength of schedules this year in the NFL and DETROIT had the second toughest schedule.

[6] NYG .5250 vs [t 21] ATL .4875

[2] DET .5458 vs [t31] NO .4583

[t12] PITTS .5083 vs [7] DEN .5208

[t17] CIN .4598 vs [t31] HOUS .4583

LINKS:

https://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/1299408

shivaseven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 460

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:18 AM ET #31

ADJUSTED S.O.S.

Very interesting - HOUSTON and N.O had the easiest strength of schedules this year in the NFL and DETROIT had the second toughest schedule.

[6] NYG .5250 vs [t 21] ATL .4875

[2] DET .5458 vs [t31] NO .4583

[t12] PITTS .5083 vs [7] DEN .5208

[t17] CIN .4598 vs [t31] HOUS .4583

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The-iLLuminati

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 1044

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:57 AM ET #32

Atlanta and new york are going to shoot it out i dont see it going under , denver cant throw the ball an sure as hell aint going to run it against pittsburgs defense. These trends are so irrelevent when it comes to betting esp. In playoff football..it misleads you to make poor decisons those stats are completly pointless and you know that. Why waste time explaining usless information ? You should actually be discussing te reality of whats going on..not a how to bet book your reading .

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Lucan

Veteran

Joined: Apr, 2010

Posts: 1645

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 3:58 AM ET #33

Good Information ............

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shivaseven

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 460

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 5:13 AM ET #34

Quote Originally Posted by The-iLLuminati:

Atlanta and new york are going to shoot it out i dont see it going under , denver cant throw the ball an sure as hell aint going to run it against pittsburgs defense. These trends are so irrelevent when it comes to betting esp. In playoff football..it misleads you to make poor decisons those stats are completly pointless and you know that. Why waste time explaining usless information ? You should actually be discussing te reality of whats going on..not a how to bet book your reading .

I'm not reading a how to bet book. I'm just providing you with information I found on the net. I didn't even say I was going to bet these games. I think some of this information is relevant.

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bikemcr

Rookie

Joined: Jun, 2011

Posts: 861

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 6:04 AM ET #35

Quote Originally Posted by The-iLLuminati:

Atlanta and new york are going to shoot it out i dont see it going under , denver cant throw the ball an sure as hell aint going to run it against pittsburgs defense. These trends are so irrelevent when it comes to betting esp. In playoff football..it misleads you to make poor decisons those stats are completly pointless and you know that. Why waste time explaining usless information ? You should actually be discussing te reality of whats going on..not a how to bet book your reading .

I agree .

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phillysystem

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2008

Posts: 90

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 7:21 AM ET #36

Quote Originally Posted by dawgballz:

Right now i m leaning towards

BENGALS +3

DENVER +9

SAINTS - 11

GIANTS -3, really feel like Giants are looking strong right now with receivers - nicks, manningham, and victor cruz, with running backs -bradshaw and jabobs, and with the great pass rush of jean pierre, kiwanuka, and umeniora - they are just healthy and playing great football - ATLANTA good but giants with a better defense win and cover 21-17

hold up, did u say NYG had a better D? Seriously? their Secondary is Swiss Cheese Bro! Cowboys just didnt exploit it but just about everyone else did! Ny has a great front 4. thats it! if Atl can handle the pass rush they Cruise! and i dont mean Victor either!

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paydirtpro

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2009

Posts: 115

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 9:28 AM ET #37

That's a head full of stats man ! " I LOVE IT " Great work PTB i bet your 8th grade math teacher never knew you had it in you ! lol.Thanks for the info buddy and GL.

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heatformer

Veteran

Joined: Oct, 2009

Posts: 2714

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 10:26 AM ET #38

Great info thx

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rangershomer

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 261

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 10:45 AM ET #39

Quote Originally Posted by The-iLLuminati:

Atlanta and new york are going to shoot it out i dont see it going under , denver cant throw the ball an sure as hell aint going to run it against pittsburgs defense. These trends are so irrelevent when it comes to betting esp. In playoff football..it misleads you to make poor decisons those stats are completly pointless and you know that. Why waste time explaining usless information ? You should actually be discussing te reality of whats going on..not a how to bet book your reading .

Right. So many of these contradict. BTW make sure you check the weather before you drop much on the over in NY. Could be windy.

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Bodogjoe

Rookie

Joined: Apr, 2007

Posts: 926

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:02 PM ET #40

hey PT GOOD LUCK I LIKE PTS WITH BENGALS THOUGH.

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WilliamMunny

Veteran

Joined: Feb, 2005

Posts: 4241

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 12:25 PM ET #41

NO are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

NO are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.

NO are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.

NO are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NO are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC.

Just Sayin

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theclaw

All-Star

Joined: May, 2008

Posts: 12079

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 1:47 PM ET #42

Awesome stuff Prime.

I'll add this to your excellent thread.....................................................

In the past 14 seasons, 9 times a wild card team made the SB and they are 9-0 ATS and 6-3 SU in the big game, including Packers last season.

Is there a wild card team lurking out there.......................................

And only once did both no.1 seeds make the SB, 2009-2010, Saints and Colts.

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Press_IT

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2012

Posts: 70

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:03 PM ET #43

Love your leans man. I have Cin +3 locked in and looking at the over in New Orleans and New Orleans -11.

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Qncyk1

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2011

Posts: 1239

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:03 PM ET #44

[Quote: Originally Posted by shivaseven]

PTB: Original article with complete logs on strength of schedule and wildcard outcomes can be found at Sports Memo.

ORIGINAL POST:

Not my info but since 2002, teams with a higher Strength of Schedule are 27-9 straight up and 27-9 against the spread (75% winners)

SOS differential of 10 or more is 16-2 SU, 15-3 ATS (83% winners)

Teams with a better SOS that are underdogs are 10-5 SU, 13-2 ATS.

Cincy SOS #23 v Hou #32

Underdogs with a SOS rating of 10 or better went 6-2 ATS and 7-1 ATS.

Both Detroit and Denver fit this with Det SOS #4 v NO SOS #31 and Den SOS #8 v Pit SOS #26

Found a site that has teams adjusted strength of schedule which is basically a teams strength of schedule with two teams head to head washed out which means a teams own loss or victory in said matchup can't affect it's own S.O.S.

ADJUSTED S.O.S.

Very interesting - HOUSTON and N.O had the easiest strength of schedules this year in the NFL and DETROIT had the second toughest schedule.

[6] NYG .5250 vs [t 21] ATL .4875

[2] DET .5458 vs [t31] NO .4583

[t12] PITTS .5083 vs [7] DEN .5208

[t17] CIN .4598 vs [t31] HOUS .4583

LINKS:

https://www.fannation.com/blogs/post/1299408

thanks for the sos update on the cin/houston game. leaning houston as they dominated game(stats) in regular season meeting at cin even w/4 to.

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PGram13

Banned

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 14861

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:33 PM ET #45

Good luck in the playoffs PTB! Im looking at NO and quite frankly love them and maybe over? Bu for sure the side. Ill buy down to 9.5 though! Happy New Year my friend, 2012 will be a good one!!

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dg84

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2002

Posts: 1672

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:34 PM ET #46

Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Awesome stuff Prime.

I'll add this to your excellent thread.....................................................

In the past 14 seasons, 9 times a wild card team made the SB and they are 9-0 ATS and 6-3 SU in the big game, including Packers last season.

Is there a wild card team lurking out there.......................................

And only once did both no.1 seeds make the SB, 2009-2010, Saints and Colts.

Actually only 6 wildcards have made the SB over the past 19 years since the 92 Bills got blown out by the Cowboys. Good point though, because 5 have won straight up with the only loser being Tennessee covering in 99 when they came a half yard away from forcing OT & possibly winning SU too.

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dg84

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2002

Posts: 1672

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:36 PM ET #47

Sorry, it would be the past 14 years since the last team since Buffalo in 92 was Denver in 97.

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theKCco_op

Banned

Joined: Nov, 2011

Posts: 351

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 2:50 PM ET #48

Quote Originally Posted by PrimeTimeBoys:

I was wondering the same thing Shiva..............I see the SOS on ESPN under NFL playoff standings but the teams are not listed like KC has listed them numerical..............ESPN has the percentage for each team.............

The guys at sportsmemo had this info on a blog, not sure who was the original author. You can pull up Saragins NFL ratings here. Notice the strength of schedule rankings in the middle column.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm

Footballoutsiders also has some good info on adjusted team rankings/strength of schedules.

Something I'd like to point out is the teams record vs. Top 10 opponents. It is the column directly to the right of SOS.

Lions are 0-5 vs Top 10 teams and Broncos 0-2.

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PrimeTimeBoys

Banned

Joined: Sep, 2007

Posts: 13343

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 4:10 PM ET #49

Quote Originally Posted by theKCco_op:

The guys at sportsmemo had this info on a blog, not sure who was the original author. You can pull up Saragins NFL ratings here. Notice the strength of schedule rankings in the middle column.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl11.htm

Footballoutsiders also has some good info on adjusted team rankings/strength of schedules.

Something I'd like to point out is the teams record vs. Top 10 opponents. It is the column directly to the right of SOS.

Lions are 0-5 vs Top 10 teams and Broncos 0-2.

Thanks man.........got a feeling one of these teams will win SU this weekend..................

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WinsNow999

Captain

Joined: Feb, 2007

Posts: 8093

Posted: Jan. 5, 2012 - 5:41 PM ET #50

Great Stuff here Prime

...Don't have to jump around and try to look for more datas and real trends...We all can get them from here!!

Base on these trends and comments are here --I am leaning to these following teams this weekend:

Houston -3.....Houston has won last three meeting with Cincinnati.
New Orleans -10.5 ...N.O has won last three meeting with Detroit by DD each time.
Atlanta +3 ....NYG has won last three meeting with Atl. but only by single digit each time.
Denver +8 .....Denver has won two out of three over Pitts .

GL

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NFL WILDCARD WEEKEND TRENDS--STATS--SYSTEMS