NFL WEEK 16 ....................2025

Claw,

Thank You for your terrific analysis.

Great info, thanks for posting .........

Yes luck based. It has been proven over and over again over history.

Close 1 score games are not repeatable long term...............

Good stuff. Big difference  is being a dog , favorites are almost 50%.

I saw on you tube Chargers are a public play as well and a dog here ..............

Looking at zona VS Falcons, according to football reference SOS, Zona is +4, 2cd toughest schedule in the league next to Titans +4.1.

Falcons are 0, not surprising since Zona plays in best division with 2 strong teams and another very good team and Falcons play in one of weakest divisions.

Zona does have the worst margin of victory of the 2 teams  but when we factor in SOS Zona comes out the better team and should be favored at home.

Unless there are some injuries with key players that could explain Zona being a 3 pt dog at home.

I didn't look into  that. Was only looking at the line being kind of silly to me anyway.

Appreciate the kind words...............

Week 16 results ---  2-3-1, lost 1.4 units

And I lost both my teams Lions and Zona. Not plays though. Just posting my thoughts.

Lions crazy with 6 TO"S. That is insane.

Vikes QB 3rd stringer Max B. Had a ridiculous ave gain per pass attempt of .1 yards.

PR II actually had Lions should of won by 2.41 pts. So those 6 TO's were not quite enough to over-ride a .1 ave per pass plus the other parts of the game but mainly that .1 ave gain per pass.

This season I have noticed many back-up QB's have been putting up some pathetic ave per pass attempt numbers.

And low total yards gained to go along with those very low ave per pass which does make sense.

I don't  ever recall seeing anything like this in the past. And it's not just back-ups, some starters have done the same to a point I have noticed this and don't  recall seeing anything like it in other years.

I'm  wondering if defenses are catching up to this offensive passing era.

Anyone have anything on this you may have seen on websites ?

And QBPR has had the highest correlation to winning games and the highest prediction value looking forward but this year I've  been noticing teams winning the QBPR don't seem to be winning the games at the same rate.

Something is going on, I suspected this for awhile now.

Maybe this helps explain a team like the Bears continuing to win despite the QB and passing game.

Probally not cause there is always that 1 or 2 teams each year that is the exception.

I'll  have to look into this more for sure.

I feel like the difference is the wider gap between competitive teams and awful teams. Sort of like the gap between rich and poor in the United States.