NFL Week 1. Here we go....

Vanzack,

Simply the best, year over year in the NFL.

A must read, very classy with posters as we don't always agree.

Looking forward to your extensive insights and donations to animal shelters is very inspiring.

I grew up with Boston Terriers 

I need to read this thread again, because I didnt see where you posted your weekly parlay. We both know they are the way to go for long term success!

Also, when you get a moment.....can you tell everyone why hedging is probably the best thing you can do to increase your ROI? 

Van

Thanks so much Van! As I wrote last season as my age increased, my level of concentration decreased, and I rely on your judgement for my NFL recreational gambling. It is still fun to look at the games, but hats off to you for sharing your expertise. 

GL this year Van...  GB my play of the week...  

@umgmu

 #76 & 

I’ve had 2 West Highland White terriers

woof woof

like the Giants and Jags 

Any lean on tonight's game ?

I like the points tonight !

Bol 

Have a year, Van 

Colts:  The line at +3 would make it a 1 unit play for me.  Not there yet.  You can run on the Texans, and if the Colts can do anything they can run. I think the line is an overreaction to the Texans outlook for this season - but I don't often bet on expectations - I bet on what numbers are telling me and in this game I have it as a PK.

Honestly, I am not sure how everyone has already forgotten the last 6 or 7 games of last season for both of these teams. If the Packers win against the Niners (which they should have), and go to the SB - what is the line on this game?

I have packers -2.5.  I dont like to bet potential.  Yes, the eagles on paper have potential.  But I will bet the team that has shown they are on the right trajectory, instead of the team who has lost their last 6 of 7 (most in embarrassing fashion).

 Cleveland O Line injuries and shifts (LINK).

Conklin will be on the left for the first time in 10 years.

GL

@vanzack

 GL this year, always learn something every year in your threads.

I doubt you are missing anything...

I just have the line at Saints -2.5.  These are two teams that will win 5 or 6 games each, gimme 4 points all day.

Thanks to everyone else for the kind words.  Great to see old online friends, and new ones as well.

One note about staking....

You should stake based on confidence.  Sounds obvious - but what isn't so obvious is that this weeks best bet might be next weeks worst bet - or vice versa.

I have a feeling that most put their whole "bankroll" in play in week 1.  In fact, I would assume this is something like 90%.  Be careful.  Long season.  Make sure you have bullets for the games that you love instead of like later in the season.

For me...  I have a model.  That model spits out about 20 predictors for upcoming games.  After the games are finished, part of my process is I backtest the predictors.  NOT RESULTS!  Predictors.  Results can have variance - but the predictors are what get you ahead long term.  

So when my predictors are tracking at a high percentage, my unit sizes go up (more confidence).  When my predictors are not tracking - my unit sizes go down.  Not based on winning or losing (although it often correlates) - based on tracking of predictors.  So you might see a losing week or two and then my units go up, or units go down.  Just know it has nothing to do with results - and everything to do with how I am tracking.

For those that card count at blackjack - this is a very similar concept - you could have a real count highly in your favor, so you bet max, and lose.  It happens.  But you want your money in on the high counts.  Results don't determine wager sizes, count does.

So for week 1 my "count" is at 0. Units are small.

Be careful out there.  This is week 1.

@vanzack

 Hey Van. You've probably mentioned it before, but what Is the best exchange iyo?

1. 4c (by far)
2. matchbook

Van we should talk card counting sometime. Im backed off from over 30 casinos, most in Vegas.

Wow. I know who to come to next time I need to go deep undercover.  I am sure you have some good disguises.

Try cruise ships.  They literally beg you to come (for free), and rarely back you off.  If they do back you off - it is minimal.  They accept ranging within reason (5-1), and you can get away with much bigger ranging until you cant.  It is pirating on the high seas.

That is.... If you cant stand to be on a germ infested cesspool of a jail cell with no way off passing off wedding caliber food as gourmet, and people pretending to have the time of their lives in pools designed for 30 that have 300 in them.

@Macwestie1

 Thanks Mac,

In the annals of Covers, you're one of the best too .

@vanzack

 I googled 4c sports exchange with no find.

@vanzack

 BOL this year man, will definitely be checking your thread on a weekly basis. Just curious, any lean on tonight’s game? 

 LINK

@vanzack

 Completely agree with being careful with week one. Bol this season 

Most places I just wait a while and go back. Ive never been backed off from the same place twice.

Ive heard that cruise ships don't have very good games. Never been on one myself, yet. Mostly multiple decks I think that pay 6 to 5 with questionable rules and dogshit penetration. If you know of any worthwhile games Im all ears.

8 decks, penetration varies wildly from dealer to dealer.  3/2 BJ (if you play 25 or higher).  You can find dealers that are deep penetration - and the great part is they are there all week.  You dont have to look very far to find them.  But then they rotate etc...  But overall - in the limited experience I have had (I literally cannot stand cruising) - it was +EV.