NFL TODAY PLAYS (1/21)

NFL PLAYOFFS (YTD):. 5-4 ATS

Yesterday wasn't great, that over should have probably cashed but great game regardless.  Got cute with Ravens though I did really love that play and then got hit by the lone touchdown on a punt return.  So it goes, apologies to all.

On my phone posting so I won't have much of a write up.  Will be back for the later game.  

TAMPA BAY FH (+3.5)....HUGE PLAY:  Honestly my biggest play of the playoffs and in some time.  Quick reasoning, the Bucs have been really really good getting out fast when playing on the road.  I think he emotions in Detroit are touching but I have seen them come out of the gate flat at home on many occasions.  Didn't happen last week, but I think it happens this.  Look, I like the Lions to potentially win this game but I think Mayfield is in a zone and the defense, while a bit less ferocious on the road, has the tools to get it done.  Prefer siding with a FH play which have done well this year, but I just love this number and spot for the Bucs.

Ok hope everyone is having a great weekend, today will be great.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

Mayfield and the Buccs made me some $$ down the stretch, can't trust them in Detroit. Gluck but I think Goff has the better day today. 

@LAGameofInches

 Interesting, I am ALL over the Lions 1st Quarter for reasons cited below, but theoretically Tampa could still cover the 1st half......I think its risky though....

1st play:  I am all over the Detroit Lions -1/2 1st Quarter, -115 for 4 units:

Why: This season the top scoring Teams in the 1st Quarter are: 

#1 is Dallas, Detroit is #2 scoring 6.9 pts in the 1st quarter and averaging 10 points per 1st quarter their L 3 games.

# 3, SF, # 4 is Baltimore.  

Tampa is #26 averaging 2.9 points per 1st quarter and 3.3 L 3 games. 

With an amped up home crowd I see the Lions jumping on the Buccaneers early here, 3-0, 7-3, 7-0 all do the trick!  

BOL today!  

Not trying to talk you out of it as you must have a good reason but Detroit is ranked #4 in 1st half scoring at 15.1 pph while Tampa is #22nd at 9.9 pph.  

GL with your play, +3.5 is a bonus.....

I believe Detroit is 6-2 ats 1st half at home but TAMPA WAS 7-2 ATS 1ST HALF AWAY , the hook could help you out here  

GL

I like Tampa I think the whole “size of the game” hits the lions early. They haven’t been here before. Call it nerves perhaps. That’s definitely a part of it 

@LAGameofInches

 I think the Lions got rid of their nerves right along with the Rams last week, If anything they are really Hungry and can smell the Conference game against SF on the horizon in a game they will be blown out of the water. Todays game should be within the number

lllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll 

Liked the 1st qtr ions -1/2 (20 bucks)  good stuff here   

Team   1H     Opp
DET    15.1   10.3
TB      9.9     9.2

A simple offense vs defense gives us the following:

DET (15.1 + 9.2) = 24.3 / 2 = 12.1
TB (9.9 + 10.3) = 20.2 / 2 = 10.1

Result: DET -2.1

I can see a TB cover at +3.5

@DoYouMind69

Sure. They can win the game but I think first half is Bucs. I’ve been wrong plenty so maybe I’m seeing it with rose colored glasses. 

GL on your play @LAGameofInches 

Maybe that was true last week. 

Cant really use nerves in my opinion when its literally another playoff game at home for the lions.

@nmgolf57

 Good complete info! 

Incredible. So good. Happy to those who tailed. Very big win on my end personally. 

@LAGameofInches

 Bang!!! Thank you LA! 

lucked out fh 

Really great game. Wanted to post play sorry been delayed but then again might be better off if it doesn’t cash too. 
adding…

OVER 22.5 FH (KC/MIA):  See a similar game to last week but with less turnovers and that should mean a closer game with less points overall. I thin the total for the FH is a tad low and both these teams have been better in the first half or worse in the second.  

Will see everyone back next week at some point. As always, tail or fade, good luck to all…

BANG!  Nice 2-0 day today...clearly was a typo not Miami but that's what some drinks can do to the mind because I actually AM in Miami.  Anyways, really solid day, apologies for yesterday, will have more this upcoming week.  I guess Go Bills