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Please don't waste even a penny on SF ML. That is just foolish. If anything donate it to a homeless shelter or buy a stranger a coffee. Seattle may be looking ahead alittle, but it has nothing to do with Arizona. IMO arizona won't win another game this season. Seattle is going to make the next three games practice games to work out any last kinks before playoffs. They are peaking at a perfect time and next week should also have max unger back at Center.  just my opinions. And yes, I put my money were my mouth is. See you all tomorrow and good luck to all.

BOL...LC what do you think about Houston???

gl LC keepem in green

bol cap

I took the Skins and Vikings myself...Good Luck LC 

LC,

Out of 15 weeks of posting, this week definitely needed write-ups, if not lengthy ones and nary a write-up is found outside of an abbreviated response regarding the Niners.

So we will start by looking at the games in red:

Chiefs -10 (2x)

Redskins +7 -125 (2x)

Dolphins +8 (3x)

Vikings +8 (4x)

49ers +10 / +365 (3x) (1x)

Dolphins +16 / Vikings +14.5 (2x)

Chargers +11 / 49ers +17.5 (2x)

As we've learned on this site, we make our money off dogs and you have several. But these dogs may leave you out in the cold holding the bookie's slippers in your mouth.

Let's start with the Dolphins +8 (3x) :

I'm almost certain you were on the Fins in Week 1. Good pick.

This one? Without justification or a backdoor you want to barrel through, I'm not so certain.

You were getting +3.5 in week one in Miami, the Pats were overrated to start the season (as always), divisional game, Gronk's first game back from injury etc.

Also, the heat played a major role in that game as Game 1 in Miami in the beginning of September is blazing summer weather, probably in the low 90's had the Pats gassed early who were also not at full game speed given it was week 1.

The Dolphins won outright, if not impressively.

Now we come to Week 15.

Pats are in a groove, at home, have revenge and where you could be getting closer to 10, you are only getting 8.

Gronk is now in a groove, the whole team is in a groove having won 9 of 10 and the Pats just won a very impressive game (and cover) in SD going away.

And now you like the 8 for 3 units.

Are you expecting the Fins to win this game? Very tough spot for the Fins to win this one as the Pats continue to seek the #1 seed so no laydown here. So we only look to a cover with a line that is a bit short, lacking the full value it should have.

Let's also remember this: Where are the quality wins for the Dolphins? Let's look at the better teams they played and the results:

KC, Green Bay, Detroit, Baltimore - All losses SU and ATS.

Good covers: Denver (L straight up) and SD (W) and NE (W)

And the latest Jets cover was due to a mutiny. If the Jets don't run the ball 100 times, they put more than 13 points on the board and likely win, sending Miami into a 4 loss in 5 tailspin...not a team that is attractive this week.

I see more bad than good and now one of the good wins this year is lost as that team has a revenge spot.

We need some detailed explanation on this one.

Okay, now that ones out of the way, onto the Vikings +8 (4x).

This is a team that easily could have lost to the Jets (AT HOME) last week, one of the biggest laydown (and worst) teams in league.

Jets spotted them 7 points before you could blink and still had the ball in OT to win. Vikings get a miracle push on a 87 yard TD (depending on the line) where the Jets pulled all their guys up front to pressure Teddy. If his receiver doesn't break a tackle, the Vikes are punting in OT on their own 15.

So their performance against the Jets was not encouraging.

The week before that?

Played the Panthers AT HOME. The game was 21-3 before you could blink as two blocked punts resulted in TD's.

Another TD came on an ultra-short punt by Carolina.

While you don't want to penalize the Vikings for that, you don't come away from that game saying, "impressive win" when you are outgained 348-210.

So the Vikes have had two home games against two of the worst teams in the league. They put one away early with blocked punts for TD's and escaped with their life against the bottom of the barrel Jets.

Before that, a nice cover late with a backdoor vs. Green Bay and a loss....outright to the atrocious Bears.

Now after three home games, Teddy B is back on the road against an elite defense.

Do you think the Vikes will win this outright? If not, again, if you are not hoping for a backdoor I don't know if 8 will be enough.

It's not that many points vs. the Lions going away who can shut you down.

Moving on to the Redskins +7 -125 (2x)

Again, we need some thoughts here. It looks like Gruden would start McCoy in a wheelchair over RG3, a total debacle of a QB situation, coaching situation and franchise in general.

Are the Giants laying down here? They didn't against the Jags with nothing to play for. They didn't against the Titans with nothing to play for. Now they come back to MetLife and we expect them to be unmotivated? They've scored 60 points against 2 teams in two weeks. If they are not unmotivated, what do the Redskins have to cover this number on the road against a team that will not, and hasn't laid down?

More explanation, more write-ups, more responses or this is 9 shaky units (13 if you count the +4 units on Kap and no one knows what QB will show up today) on dogs which are usually good bets but can get you in big trouble when you put too much confidence in them. 

Dogs like to bark but today with bloated units and no explanation, if you are not careful, you may be left out in the cold with a damp newspaper. 

scal don't post this stuff on another man's thread come on. 

Dolphins -

One of the best plays against you can make is on an eastern time zone team that just played out west, while opponent played out east. To make things better, pats actually flew to sd right after the loss against gb and were in the PST all week. I also like that this is do or die for Miami. All in moment here. They lose this game they are pretty much done in the playoff race, I'm expecting a close game. Plus New England hasn't been able to blowout Miami in recent matchups, why would it start now? I also like that miami is a good team who was basically shut out in the second half last game. Now they get to play a team they know better than anyone else in the league. I don't like the spot my pats are in this Sunday and I definitely don't expect a blowout win for them. 24-20 either way

Also no I don't think sf has pressure, they did last few weeks. Harbaugh is on the way out already. They lose here it means nothing big deal they were supposed to lose. I don't see seattle blowing out a good team playing loose

Here's the problem with alot of Scal's write-ups, they are opinion based, just Scal's opinion on how to use the info which he often uses it backwards .

BOL LC!

Vikings -

Certain home teams going for a third straight home win are good fades. Lions don't have a great coach to excel them in this spot. Vikings playing better off two wins and a 3 point loss to packers. Too many points for a divisional matchup. Last time these two faced off vikings lost by 14 but it was one of the first division games bridge water has played in. He has a few more games under his belt now and they should play a lot better.

Redskins I like the spot they are in as they've been getting humiliated last few weeks and now play a divisional team that blew them out earlier in the year. Revenge for them while the Giants still have too many holes on defense to be laying a touchdown

Traditionally, lines are adjusted 3 pts to a neutral field and then 3 pts for home resulting in a 6 pt swing.

This is a long-standing principle of line setting.

We are assessing 8 here.

I obviously implied 14 weeks have passed since week 1 (and shouldn't have to even imply such a thing since it is so obvious).

So the standard adjustment all things being equal should be 9.5 and 10 for even greater home field advantages.

Then you compare the standard adjustment to the current line given all that has transpired.

I addressed all that has transpired by analyzing quality wins and covers over the course of the year and their performance in the Jets game and the fact the Dolphins would be in a tailspin if they didn't get that last-second win vs. the Jets. Oh, and there was even more than that in the write-up. In fact, I have gone as far as to justify every single point in a spread of NBA write-ups, so you need not address me about lines and their value.

So the 9.5/10 is actually far more reasonable than 8. That explains a lot doesn't it? If not, I can't help ya.

Scal is nothing better than an behind wipe

 

Vikings have not 'played better' off a 3 pt cover against the Packers.

I detailed this in the write-up.

The cover against the Packers came on a 5 yard TD with 3:23 left. That is called a 'backdoor' cover and not something you should depend on over the long-term (or put a lot of units on).

The Panthers grossly outgained them and their miscues (not the Vikes great play) ended that game before it began.

As a matter of fact, the Panthers outgaining them in the box score in a loss is something you've used to justify a side against an opponent (which would go against your pick of the Vikings) and the Panthers did just that.

Take away an 87 yard breakdown in coverage, the Jets also outgained the Vikings (and even at that the total yards were 410-411). So even at home, the Vikings struggled against the lowly Jets and could have easily lost save a missed tackle.

In my view, their past 2-0-1 ATS could easily be 1-2 ATS so the suddenly hot Vikes are colder than a Thanksgiving turkey.

You see differently because of a black box 'certain teams' trend which again, can be microanalyzed to apply to any team you want when you take out other 'certain' teams which make it a less valuable trend.

Giants-

May have holes in the defense but their offense is clicking with 60 pts in 2 weeks and they are not laying down. And the Redskins D is bad as well which you have to factor in. It's offense? A total crapshoot with a gimpy QB and speaking of coaches (if you want to mention the Lions coach as a detriment to them) this is a coach on the hottest of hot seats for what he has done with that team (very little if nothing). Not enough there for me to support the Skins in any way.

 

Scal, the scrubs don't like conversation (lots of words = reading/thinking). They prefer to baaah like the sheep they are and follow.  

Say whatever you will, SF is NOT a good team any longer. 

Pitt is the play fellas....