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Over the last two weeks, I’ve got this thing back on track. Sorry that I’ve been unable to post write-ups the last two weeks. Those that know me away from here know I had to attend to more important matters. But, back to football! These are my top 5 contest plays, including my GOY.
Arizona +3.5
I could probably copy-and-paste this write-up from weeks past against New Orleans. Under Payton, NO is terrible as a home fave: 2-9 ATS. The last three seasons they are 1-5 as a HF over 3.5 pts. Meanwhile, AZ is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year and 2-0 as a road dog between 3’ – 7 pts. NO is also coming off a short week and a big division win off their number 1 rival. How big a rival is it? Well, NO is 1-7 ATS at home after playing the Falcons. This is very similar to the Den/Hou game. My power ratings have these teams as even with the difference being the home field. But in this case we are getting more value with a team that plays well on the road vs a team that is a money-maker to fade at home.
Jacksonville +3.5
I could probably copy-and-paste this write-up as well – considering I’ve been backing the Jags this year on the road (5-1 ATS) and fading NO at home. All my power ratings have Jax as the better team with Pitts HF advantage making them a slight fave or the game a pick ‘em. The Jags, however, have played the tougher schedule and been a money-maker on the road. Pitt has done well at home going 5-2 ATS but I think the difference is in the caliber of opponent. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS this year when playing a team with a winning record (3-0 in the 2nd half of the season) while Pitt is 2-2 on the season and 0-2 in the 2nd half of the season. Gonna back my money making road warriors again, the Jags +3.5.
New England –21
Hmmmm…. Well, this was my game of the year and I usually don’t over-react to injuries or weather and I am debating how much I am going to allow it effect my wager amount on Sunday. But I am still firing with both barrels on New England. Everyone knows that Jets coach Mangini was the whistle-blower that cost coach B $50k, the team more in dollars and draft picks. Worse, the Pats have to hear about how their current chase for history is blemished and deserves a Barry Bonds-esq asterisk. Not only is this line historic, so are my power ratings for this game. One has set the line at NE –30. Even the trends and angles favor New England. In December games, NE is 10-1 ATS as faves off a DD win and Coach Bill is 8-0 off a non-division win now playing a sub-.500 team. Meanwhile the Jets have not fared well against NE , even before they were juggernauts, going 2-9-1 over the last twelve. I wish a blizzard and 23 mph winds weren’t forecasted but I’m sticking with this play as there is now way Belichick is going to call off the dogs. In fact, I’m gonna embrace the line dip as added value.
Indianapolis –10 –120
When it gets this late in the season it gets tricky as some games can take on an almost pre-season quality as teams with play-off berths begin resting key players. Fortunately this week quality teams have a lot to play for – including the Indianapolis Colts. My lines have Indy as a two TD favorite. Indeed they come in with the #4 offense and #2 defense lined up against the 23rd and 24th, respectively. Indy is of course coming off an impressive road win against Baltimore whereas Oakland failed to show up last week in Green Bay. When Indy gets on these rolls they are hard to stop. This year after they’ve won 2 or more straight games they are 6-2 ATS the next game. Meanwhile, even though Oakland has a first year coach they are falling into old patterns. Oakland is 0-9 ATS the last 4 weeks of the season over the last three campaigns and has started December off 0-1. But it isn’t as if they have been stellar at home in the previous months. The Raiders are 1-5 ATS this year at home! Indy is also 8-4 as a DD fave where Oakland is 2-6. Nothing, and I mean nothing points towards Oakland in this game while Indy has much motivation to put a way a team and the game out of reach early (ala like last week vs the Ravens) to hopefully pull key players to prevent a senseless injury.
NY Giants –4.5
I had the Giants last week on the road against the Eagles and in that write-up I said the match-up was between two teams going in opposite directions and the wrong team was favored. Of course the Giants won outright. I can’t say the same thing about this game but despite last week’s win the Redskins have been inconsistent – often times finding ways to lose than win. The book has the right team favored this week but not by enough. I thing the G-men should be at least a 7 point favorite. The fact is we may be getting some value with the Redskins primetime cover last week. The Giants beat this team earlier in the year and have done a good job beating teams that they should as they are 6-2 ATS vs teams with a losing record. The Giants have been good down the stretch as well. They are 7-4 ATS in December the last three years and 2-0 so far this year. They are 2-0 off a game vs a division rival and over the last few years they are 10-1 ATS in December off a SU dog win. They are also 6-1 vs an under .500 division opponent off a SUATS win. Historically, Washington has stepped up late in the season as well (6-2 the last four weeks of the season) and is 1-0 TY but I don’t see it this week. Washington has been too inconsistent to back in my opinion and the Giants keep finding ways to win late – and cover, while Washington has done the opposite (again see Bills and Eagles games). Take the Giants minus the points.
Comments welcome and as always good luck to everyone... no matter your side!
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