NFL Playoff Championship Games.......

I look at "buying points" in football a little differently than most.  When I decide I want to bet on a side in a game, I look at all possible wagers and lines with that side and evaluate which is the best bet for the prices available.  Sportsbettors often only consider a line and not the price - they want to win that bet and disregard the price they have to pay for it - to their longterm detriment.  Every bet has a line and a price, and each is just as important as the other.  For instance...

If I like Houston over GB, there will be a lot of standard options:

1.  Houston -3 -110 (Book A)
2.  Houston -3.5 +108 (Book B)
3.  Houston -2.5 -125 (Book C)
4.  Houston ML -138 (Book D)

The total O/U on this game is 39.

In those 4 examples, you arent officially "buying points", but in reality you are doing the same thing - increasing or decreasing the price as a line moves up or down. The key is being able to evaluate which of those 4 options is the best VALUE.  The simple answer is option 4.

The more complicated answer is how to get there.  Generally, I apply a 22 cent fair price to buy or sell off of the 3 in the NFL, and every other half point is generally worth about 7.5 cents.  But I vary off of these numbers depending on the total O/U of the game.  If the total is average (say 39), then I would use the numbers above.  If the total is 55, then the fair value becomes lower for those half points, and if the total is 32 it becomes higher.  My thinking is that a half point is worth more to me in a game that is expected to only have 32 points than a game that is expected to have 55 points.

So in the example above, I can recalculate all of the lines to -3, and assign a price so that I can compare apples to apples and see the best value:

1.  Houston -3 -110 (Book A)
2.  Houston -3 -114 (originally -3.5 +108, +22 cents for going to -3)
3.  Houtson -3 -103 (originally -2.5 -125, -22 cents for going to -3)
4.  Houston -3 +114 (orignally EV -138, -7.5 for 1st point, 34.5 for going to -3)

So now it is clear to see that with these options, Option 4 is the best price, Option 3 is next, then option 1 and 2.

I always bet the line / price combination that has the best value.  A lot of sportsbetters dont care about longterm, they want to win a bet TODAY and so they overpay to buy points.  But longterm, this is a losing proposition.  Selling points is often much better than buying points for longterm expected value, but it reduces your chances of winning that bet today, so most sportsbettors wouldnt consider it.  This is a major difference between "recreational" and "professional or profit minded" sports gamblers.

Generally, I would never buy points and pay 10 cents to get a half of a point.  This is because I value half points at about 7.5 cents.

I never bet basketball, so cant really comment on the value of buying there - but I am sure it is the same drill - you have to pay a premium to do it so it is probably not a good idea.

I know this is a little longwinded, and didnt answer your questions one by one - but I hope you can use this - I tried to explain it in as simple of terms as possible and keep it as short as possible - its just that I look at this concept differently than most so if I were to answer "do you buy points the traditional way" the simple answer would be no - but I do often buy or sell non-traditionally because the price determines how I bet.

The Jets defense is nowhere, I mean nowhere near as good as the 99 Bucs defense.  Or at that fact any Bucs defense from 99-01.  Warren Sapp?  Brooks? Lynch?  Who do the Jets have that can compare to those three. 

you're not too bright, are you?

Darrelle Revis is quickly cementing a name as the single best defensive back to ever play the game... nobody has ever had the all around game that he has...

Vanzack, I am curious to hear your thoughts on the Indy-NY game.  Do you think it is fair to compare this week's matchup to week 16s?  In that game the Jets offense really struggled to move the ball in the first half, and I am not sure the Colts had all their defensive starters in the game.

I really think this game is an enigma.  If you watched the Jets in the first 3 quarters at San Diego there is no way you could back them today, but if you watched the 4th quarter its a whole different story.

What is making you lean towards the Jets?

Deion Sanders did it for a bunch of years....

Before you call him the best to ever play - let him do it for several years....

Deion Sanders did it for a bunch of years....

Before you call him the best to ever play - let him do it for several years....

1.  Vikings +4 (2 units).
2.  Vikings +170ish ML (1 unit)
3.  Jets +7.5 (2 units)

I think the vikings present a matchup problem for the Saints.

I also think the points are just too much in what should be a defensive game in Indy.