Week 1 leans in order I like em...no props yet as they aren't out at my book
Leans
Ten/no under 41.0 @1.95...2 underrated defenses. Neither team scared to run the ball. Kamara keeps clock running in screen game too...don't love that its in a dome
Cin/cle under 47.5 @1.92 ....this #1 if burrow doesn't play...cle should pound the run with chubb and cle defense fairly underrated
Tenn +3.0 @1.99...thinking titans will try to control the clock with henry...don't see saints blowing them out so +3.0 is nice
These lines all moved away from what I liked or what I saw in preseason
Mia/lac over 49.5....now at 51.0...overs are risky early in season...offenses need time to gel...especially where starters barely see any preseason game reps
Pitt +3.5....now at +2.5...really like this if u can get +3.0 at good odds (1.90 or better)
Sf/pit under 41.0....Pickett and Purdy scare me here could see a 23-20 game or higher
Kinda like buf/nyj under 47.0 but both QBs scary....
Kinda like LV +3.5....oddsmakers expecting a different broncos team this season. Hard to flip the switch week 1...don't like that jacobs didn't attend training camp...Hopefully he ready to go...kinda trust Jimmy G here for some reason...
Waiting on 4-6 props....I have 3 circled that I really like. Just waiting to see if I get a favorable line.
More leans
Baker under 235.5 passing yards...just missed this at 237.5...big number for the ole boy
Purdy under 236.5 passing yards....49ers should go run heavy ...worried about a short pass to deebo for a big gainer ....steelers secondary decent
Ridder under 197.5 passing yards....missed 200.5...high number for the 2nd year QB in a run-heavy O....worried about big screen or pass to Bijan
Geno under 247.5 pass yards....big number for geno...but the rams suck
Dobbins over 59.5 rush yards...missed 57.5....worried about split load and Lamar stealing carries
Chubb over 76.5 rush yards....missed 73.5....cle should pound run to keep ball away from burrow
Chase over 6.5 receptions...his boy burrow starting at QB
couple more leans....gotta narrow these down over next day or 2
Stroud under 197.5 pass yards....fade of the rookie vs a tough baltimore D/secondary....might be my fave prop on the board
A.richardson under 192.5 pass yards.....fade another rookie....jags secondary nothing amazing and they could build a huge lead which will force indy to pass more....heard richardson accuracy was terrible in camp....he will look to run when pressure comes
Tannehill under 219.5 pass yards....expecting titans to lean heavy on the run game....saints D/secondary good
D.jones under 211.5 pass yards....dallas d legit, good secondary...only worry is a long screen to saquon or dallas gets big lead and force giants to throw the ball
Waddle over 4.5 receptions....only worry is if tua targets hill heavy and doesnt look waddle way much...bolts secondary is decent too
@dubz4dummyz
what up dubz.
when do we hit the first o3.5 total FG prop?
we need an indoor game, consistent kickers.
Carolina/Atlanta looks like a possibility.
Jags/Colts.,,,,,,,Bucs/Vikes,,,,,,,Titans/Saints
I wrote Oilers at first instead of Titans and then corrected it. Should have left it. I was just watching old film from the early 90s Oiler teams before they went to Tenn. Haywood Jeffires, Drew Hill, Ernest Givins, Curtis Duncan, Lorenzo White, Warren Moon.,,,,,,,,,,the Jack Pardee/Kevin Gilbride years. Good stuff.
@JDD
whats crackin JD
balt/pitt week 5 barring weather
dont mind car/atl this week but slightly worried about lack of RZ stops and ability of ridder/bryce to move the ball
gotta get back into my kicker stats lol
LV/Den 2 good kickers? thin air up in denver
SF/Pitt could have a lot of RZ stops
always gotta check weather though
1 locked in
Stroud under 197.5 pass yards @1.87 0.5 to win 0.435
Fading the rookie
Weather calling for 77% rain...this should favor the run game which will take away from the pass game
Both teams are fairly run heavy even without the potential of rain
Tough matchup vs ravens secondary/defense
Texans should pound the run
Only worry is if ravens get huge lead and Texans go pass heavy
Like him in the 150-180 range
GL all
Debating quarter unit play on mia/lac over 50.5
Also like hou/balt under 43.0 but not sure if ill pull trigger
Really liking waddle too. May lock that in
I overlooked Humphrey being out for my stroud play.....hes the ravens lockdown corner....see if the rookie can crack 200+ pass yards
0-1 -0.5 units
stroud goes over in garbage time...exactly what i was worried about....lamar under 219.5 was the smarter play based on how i thought ravens could build a big lead and sit on it....also texans got the ball at both 2-minute drills, which are usually pass-heavy drives....
leans 9-5 so far
Week 2 leans...in order I like em
Sf/lar under 45.0...divisional game...worried 49ers score 27+
Nyj/dal under 39.0....slightly worried if Dallas blows them out...hard to see both teams over 20 points
Was/den under 39.0...hard to see both teams over 20 points
No/car under 40.0....divisional game....hard to see both over 20 points
Lv +9.0 ...ton of points....Jimmy g good game manager
Cle/pit under 39.0....divisional game...browns like to run the ball
Tenn +3.0....worried about them keeping up with chargers offence
Balt+3.5...divisional game
Week 2Prop leans...not in order
Ridder under 190.5 pass...atl run 1st offense...worried if GB gets big lead
Z.wilson under 175.5 pass...Dallas D elite
Jacobs over 68.5 rush yards...already juiced to 1.80...should get 16+ carries unless bills blow them out...slightly worried about blowout
Henry over 79.5 rush yards....should get 16+ carries unless chargers blow them out....slightly worried about blowout
D.jones over 35.5 rush yards.....the guy loves to run....just worried he won't vs arizona...wish it was in the 20s
Waiting on 3-5 receptions props....3 I really like depending on numbers I get
fuser
more leans
k.allen over 6.5 receptions....herbert fave target...liked this better when williams was doubtful....titans secondary trash
diggs over 6.5 receptions...allens fave target....dont love that peters is covering him but that should fire diggs up
chase over 6.5 receptions...crazy career numbers vs ravens....dont like that it juiced heavy already and burrow not 100%
adams over 6.5 receptions....worried how jimmy g distributes the ball....if bills get big lead this should hit as raiders will go pass heavy....19 of jimmys targets went to adams and meyers
hill over 6.5 receptions....belichick might have a plan to make miami attack elsewhere
1 locked in
Diggs over 6.5 receptions @1.95 0.5 to win 0.475
10 catches on 13 targets last week against a top 3 corner (sauce gardner) last week
bills should be pass heavy offence again this year
peters likes to talk which should get diggs going, should fire him up and make him play better
debating going full unit here.....good matchup vs a weaker raiders secondary
looking for 3-4 catches a half
like him in the 6-9 reception range
GL all
looking at jacobs over 70.5 rush, henry over 85.5 rush and z.wilson under 180.5 pass
also looking at sf/lar under 46.0 and debating raiders +9.0....
not sure if raiders +9.0 or jacobs over 70.5 is the better bet....if raiders cover 9.0 jacobs should fly over 70....unless bills get massive lead and raiders go pass heavy and get a backdoor cover late
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