**NFC/AFC Championship System Picks**

MJ: Fair point about Cincy. They were very solid before Hall got hurt. I will point out that while the Niners won, they also only scored 13 points. Meanwhile, the Giants offense is miles better than the Bengals'. I talked about Pitt. Cleveland is barely average and not applicable to this conversation. Seattle was decent, but they relied on big plays to be even that. Without them, they were worse than average. 

interesting read:

The Giants certainly have been impressive over their last 4 games but the Saints were riding a 9 game straight up and spread winning streak coming into San Francisco last week and most often the teams that are considered to be the “hot” teams are the worst bets you can make in the playoffs. The Giants’ 37-20 victory at Green Bay last week was impressive but any good team that could manage to be positive in turnovers against the Packers would be expected to win given that the Pack were out-gained for the season and lived on turnovers. San Francisco could also easily lose this game if they’re negative in turnovers but that’s not likely to be the case and the Giants are in a very negative technical spot in this game.

Teams that scored 35 points or more in the divisional round of the playoffs are just 1-10 ATS on the road in the conference championship game and teams that won despite allowing 19 points or more are just 2-17 ATS on the road in the championship game when not getting more than 9 points. The Niners, meanwhile, apply to a 37-8 ATS playoff situation and a 54-18-3 ATS playoff situation that combine to go 14-2 ATS when both apply to the same game (2-0 ATS in the conference championship). San Francisco also applies to a 13-0 ATS conference championship game angle and the Niners are 8-0-1 ATS at home this season with the spread push being a 3 point overtime loss as a 3 point dog (so they covered in that game in regulation). With the technical analysis that strong I’m just looking for the line to be fair and in this case it is.

As I mentioned last week, the Niners’ offense is much better with Adam Snyder starting at right guard than it was in the 4 games that he didn’t start (weeks 1 through 3 and week 12) and San Francisco averaged 6.1 yards per play last week against the Saints, so they’re certainly capable of moving the ball when they need to. I rate San Francisco as average offensively from a yards per play perspective but they’re actually better than average because they run a system that protects the ball (Alex Smith threw only 5 interceptions all season and they have just 1 game in which they committed more than 1 turnover). The Giants’ defense is only 0.1 yards per play better than average for the season but they are clearly better than that now. I decided to use only the 8 games in which all of their defensive linemen were healthy, as they are now, and New York is 0.5 yppl better than average in those 8 games. My math model projects 325 yards at 5.0 yppl for the 49ers in this game.

The Giants’ offense is very good, averaging 6.2 yppl against teams that would combine to allow 5.6 yppl to an average attack, but San Francisco’s defense is 0.5 yppl better than average for the season and that unit did a good job of limiting the Saints to just 5.85 yppl in last week’s win (an average defense would allow 6.5 yppl at home to the Saints). My math model projects 341 yards at 5.6 yppl for the Giants in this game.

New York is clearly better from a yards per play perspective, but the Niners have superior special teams (2 points better than the Giants) and my math model projects a 0.9 turnover advantage for the Niners in this game. That’s much less than their +1.9 average turnover margin but overall the math favors San Francisco by 3 points based on the projected statistics and special teams. A compensated points model would favor San Francisco by 6 ½ points at home without any adjustments, but adjustments need to be made for the difference in actual turnover margins of the two teams (+1.33 in favor of SF) from the projected turnover margin of +0.9 and I also have dock San Francisco for the fact that special teams performance tends to regress towards the mean (they still have a 2 point edge, but that’s less than the difference in season special teams ratings for these two teams). The adjusted points model favors the Niners by 2 ½ points, so the fair line is between 2 ½ and 3 points and that’s where the line is. With the technical analysis so strongly in favor of the Niners,

Smitty, excellent effort and analysis

but, if gambling 101 gives 3 points to the home team then the favorite in this game is actually the GIANTS. Also, a muddy field favors receivers as they know where their going and the defense is actually who reacts/cuts/etc. If the Giants run go routes and get Bradshaw out of the backfield (considering the field is muddy as hell that is) it could be huge for the Giants.

Also, that game last week against the Saints was freakin amazing. If they have the energy to put forth that same effort their winning the freakin super bowl.

This game is going to rock...I think the difference is the kicking game...Lawrence Tynes will miss crucial attempts and it may cause coughlin to have to go for 4th down plays any coach would not normally do, lending favor to the Niners.

Perfect game for a teaser Niners +4 Under 48.5...GL

Added:

49ers -2.5 2U 

Sorry that's....