mTbaKer's Week 15 Monday Night Special- Homer Style

49ers -3 (+103) to win 50 units

Here we go, finally a good primetime game.  I really like the Niners in this one.  The public realizes the Niners are good team, but they don’t think that they are as good as the vaunted and veteran Steelers.  The Niners looked mediocre on primetime a couple weeks back against the Ravens on primetime.  The thing is that in that game they were on 4 days rest travelling on the road.  Now the Niners get a lot of time to prepare for a quality Steelers on extra rest after playing on a Thursday the previous week.  Pitt is playing for the division and 1^st seed in the AFC, but the Niners are also playing for the first-round bye and badly want to use this as a statement game that they should be mentioned along with the cream of the crop in the league.

On defense the Niners have the best run D in the game.  The Steelers are a decent running team, but have struggled far more this season in picking up yards on the ground.  They are ranked 15^th in running and I think they got no chance at running against the Niners who did well even without Willis in the lineup last week, so nothing should change here.  Big Ben is tough as nails and is a hell of a QB, however he questionable although I do expect him to play.   One of Big Ben’s biggest strengths is eluding the pass rush and making plays on the run.  Unfortunately, his ankle’s gonna limit his elusiveness.  With the Niners holding down Mendenhall, Big Ben is going to have to operate out of a lot of 3^rd and longs.  The Niners have a solid pass D and a good pass rush led by Aldon Smith.  They will be able to pressure Ben in 3^rd and longs against that banged up Steelers O-Line.

On offense the Niners have improved a ton compared to last year.  Smith has been solid in big games this year against the Giants, and other road contests.  I think he can make the throws necessary to win them this big game.  The Niners have a lot of fast deep threats in Ginn Jr., Crabtree, and Williams who can stretch the field and will keep the Pitt’s physical corners in Taylor and Gay from crowding the line in bump and run the way they did so effectively when shutting down the Pats over a month ago.  Much has been made of Frank Gore’s limited carries.  Last week he only got 10 carries, but he finally started getting back some production of old gaining a whopping 7.2 yards per carry.  I think the Niners have been smart with Gore this year, but I think today they are going to really depend on Gore in a big game like this and I think he’s gonna have the energy to get yards against a tough Pitt D.  The Steelers will be without one of their best pass rushers in James Harrison so I think Smith will have more time in the pocket.

Many people are worrying about Smith making mistakes when the ball’s in his hands, but I’m not.  Smith has been great at limiting turnovers this year and especially in the Ravens game where he was under duress the whole game, he never threw the errant interception and stupid play that he would do in the past.  THE NINERS ARE THE BEST IN THE LEAGUE IN TURNOVER DIFFERENTIAL AT +21, WHILE THE STEELERS ARE A HORRIFIC -7.  I think that’s going to play a big part in this game with San Fran’s opportunistic defense.

The Niners have played many talented teams in the Giants, Lions, Eagles, Cowboys, and Ravens and have not looked out of place.  The Steelers have struggled against elite competition by losing to the Texans and Ravens twice.  GO NINERS!

GL

gl mtbaker, we are seeing eye to on this one...on the niners for a dime...lets get this one.

The 49ers are a team that has already peaked. they lose this game because they have no red zone offense.

nice man let's hope them dimes come our way today

so much has been made of their red zone failures that I think tonight would be an ideal time to end those problems- anyways the Niners have a stingy red zone D and I think they are ready to take a big step tonight

I don't think they are regressing they were in a tough spot on short rest against Balty but you know if you take a penalty away that nullified a Ginn TD that game things could change- glad they called it though cause I had Balty that game.  The loss against Zona was merely them playing a hungry divisional home dog and the Niners got sloppy after blowing a nie double-digit lead.

Tonight I think they take it to Pitt.

Quote Originally Posted by TomE:

Nice write up. Completely agree.
The turnover differential is something I think is a big deal too.

BOL!

Ya when I watched Smith lose to Balty I was impressed that he hung in the pocket and didn't mess up and make mistakes the way he used to under pressure- tonight I think a fresh Gore is gonna gain some yards and give Smith shorter yardage situations and a banged up Big Ben on the run is gonna lead to some Niner picks

Quote Originally Posted by Derrrty19:

Always appreciate the insight from you.

On the other side, but BOL man.

Thanks man, appreciate the kind words.  Should be a good game, and by the way I definitely lean your way on the Over.

Ya I think so too, I think the Niners redeem themselves here and I don't see them going 1-3 in their last 4 as they match up nicely with Pitty

go get em mane

glad to hear that buddy hope they come through for us!

Quote Originally Posted by BigNiner:

Hope they continue to make us proud

That game was actually beautiful for me cause I have Jags Season Win Total Under 6 for a big play- glad to hear that you liek the Niners as well