Tonight is a 2 part story. The first part is those that got down
at 6.5, 2nd is obviously everyone else left with the 7.5. It is two entirely separate situations now that the
books have made the move...Lets "dumb" the situation down...Books
knew when they put up 6.5, the public was going to be (1) down on the Giants
coming off 2 losses and (2) high on the Saints off two wins and a bye. I was a
little wide eyed myself when I saw the 6.5 and not a 7 at the open. In my
opinion, books didn't want balance, they wanted Saints money. They could have
put up a safe 7, but clearly wanted to take a side.... They got what they
wanted...didn't take 1/2 a day before the books got filled with Saints $. The
next move, zip right by 7 (some straight to 7.5, 8 or 8.5.) Real
fast to the higher numbers, to eliminate teasing the Saints through a pick. So
teaser players (especially off-shore ties lose shacks) using the Saints would
at best get -1.5, -2 or -2.5. If you notice, a lot of books have the
juice way off on the 8's and 8.5's (to lock in high "tease from"
numbers), spread players will adjust to the correct line....So let's talk about
what to do. My math & my head say the take NY +7.5... Although the
Saints look like a team that could blow the Giants out based on current form...it's
long term form that means the most...(1) The
Giants have played below average the last few games. So we know they need to
win and refocus...under Coughlin, this is the best time to play the Giants...He
is particularly good at having his teams bounce back off bad losses when going
into big games. (2) To use
a horse racing analogy... the Saints are stepping up in class tonight... True
the Saints only lost 2 games since October.... but look at who they faced...
only 1 team in that span ranks in the NFL top 20 (the Falcons, who took them to
OT.) They played Carolina, Colts, Bucs twice, Jags and Rams... certainly
weren't running against any Grade 1 Stakes company. (3) The Giants on the other hand have
been running in a different circuit. There last 3 included the
Patriots, @ 49ers and Eagles Div. revenge. All those games came down to the 4th
qtr and the Giants were competitive in every contest. They didn't lose bu more
then 7 in any of those games. (4) Taking
into consideration #2 and #3... we note that I have San Fran and New England
ranked 2 & 3 in my NFL power ratings compares to New Orleans which I have
at 7. Seems logical that if the Giants beat or lost by no more then 7 to
stronger teams, that getting 7.5 would be of great value.(5) The Giants defense is going to be much tougher on the
Saints then anything they have seen lately even without Boley. Keys To
The Game - The Giants will have to reshuffle the O-line for this game
(due to injury) I think its a good thing since the running game struggled the
last two games. In reality, if the Giants block up front they will be in very
good shape. The Saints
rank 19 defending the run (121.5), but they’ve allowed an NFL-worst
5.2 yards a carry. So for a battering ram like Jacobs, it could mean big runs
if he can get to the second level. If the Giants can run picking up big chunks,
it keeps Breeze and Sproules off the field....The Saints have big Offensive
stats, but remember, 63 against the Colts and 30 against Carolina make the
numbers make things seem better then they really are. I am not blaming the
Saints for there schedule, but it is a reality that there stats are
inflated more then other teams because of the fact. The Bye Week - I like teams coming off
the bye in the NFL, if they are working... However... I do not like teams that
have the Thanksgiving week Bye (players traveling back home to family and
sitting around all day eating and being lazy. Basically anything but
playing or thinking about football. A good bye week is
when players get a coupe days off then go back to practice. The
Giants did actually come into practice the Day after Thanksgiving ended. They
were motivated by the embarrassing loss to the Eagles. Fact,
the Giants came in and work by choice (not forced by coaches) over the holiday.
They promised to come out intense from the opening snap. I look for the
Giants to be game tonight, they will be ready, and I think the Saints will take
some time to get back to game speed after the Holiday. The Giants are going to
be the toughest and most physical team they faced since October. Giants +7.5.
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