@vanzack
Serious question, at least as it relates to me and my family. I have about $110,000 in savings collecting 4% to 5% interest. I am, by nature, a risk averse person (gambling is just a hobby:), but I feel that this money is just going to be eaten up by inflation. What is a relatively safe investment option where I can I can get more than 4-5%? Thanks.
I must ask, why are you even here? like logging into this degenerate gambling forum? assuming you held your $13 Bitcoins, you’re in far better shape than most of the world.
What keeps you coming back here and posting picks? Doesn’t add up. This place is a cesspool. Is capping NFL more of a hobby and challenge you enjoy? seems like it. Great trade btw.
Everyone has a different definition of safe. Truly safe by modern definition is the 4% FDIC high interest savings account that you are in.
But if your time horizon is more than say at least five years, there has never been a historic five year period in the S&P to lose money. It averages about 12% per year.
I'm not a financial advisor, and this is not financial advice, but you might want to look in to an index fund with low or no MGMT fees.
I am here because I like it, and want to be here. Pretty simple.
Thanks. Much appreciated. I’ll look into it.
i have deep respect, Van. I've been following your stuff for quite a while, and you've help me change the way I look at games. I do have a question, though, and again I ask respectfully. When it became clear that this season was going in a very different direction than most seasons (ie the books were getting killed by grandma's parlays), was there a chance for you to pivot and go with the market for a while?
That was quite a moose to not cover 5.5 last night. Rough one man.
I actually owned 10 bitcoin at around $10 a piece many years ago. I read an article about it in an online magazine and thought it sounded cool. I wish i had forgot about it, but my brain remembered when i needed drug money a couple years later. Ah what could have been. Congrats on your investment and holding all this time. Even if I had kept it a lot longer I dont see any scenario where i kept holding any longer than $10k/coin
Great question.
I clearly have zigged when I should have zagged, and zagged when I should have zigged. But telling the future is tough business, and one of the most difficult tasks is separating out trends with causation from variance. I always talk about correlation with or without causation - and this is just another example. Are we seeing favs win and cover because this is the new NFL, or is it just a blip?
I dont know the answer, I have not been good this season at identifying the answer - but to be fair it is an answer that really only comes with time.
The best answer might be to stop altogether - which I have done a form of by greatly reducing unit sizes - but obviously in retrospect would have been better to shut it down completely.
It is not too late! I realize you will be buying at 100k instead of 10 bucks - but there are fundamental reasons why it will continue to go up.
I wasnt kidding when I said that it is disingenuous for me to advise anyone to sports bet when they can just buy BTC. It is advice I wish I took myself this NFL season. I would have doubled my bankroll instead of losing.
Keep taking the dogs , road favs will not continue at this pace. The worst thing to do is flip flop. As a crypto player you should warn people after this rally hopefully 2 years you will get a massive 70% pullback if you’re long no worries but this is common in btc. We may see 500k before this who knows
I am not a crypto player, I am a BTC hodler.
I do not think the 4 year cycle will repeat this time around. I think we are in new territory with business and nation state interest. The dominoes will quickly fall in the new year - and it could skyrocket with no pullback.
The governmental interest in owning BTC will continue to keep it moving up most likely. I play options and I'm not happy I missed the huge move in Tesla. So obvious now with Musks governmental involvement
@Yanasaur
Extremely Evil older brother resents my hobbies Has Profited over 300k on the aforementioned Stock since Friday enabling him to interject himself into my Life that HE knows better for me..
I just want to be left alone AND enjoy my Life and extremely small circle I've created for myself..
GL OP ..only have my Broncos OVER 9' WIN wager AND, more importantly, Team Sack Crown up 4 over Texans..
@vanzack
Are we seeing favs win and cover because this is the new NFL, or is it just a blip? ... This may or may not be the new NFL but favs winning and covering is not the right question to ask, imo.
But telling the future is tough business, and one of the most difficult tasks is separating out trends with causation from variance. I always talk about correlation with or without causation - and this is just another example. ... (#1) Is there a correlation with causation regarding pressure rates, sack rates, and hurry rates and picking the winner ATS? (#2) If the answer is yes, then the next question is ... can you still identify the team that should win the pressure rate battle? (#3) If the answer is yes, is the team that wins that pressure rate battle covering the spread? Obviously, if you answer no to question #3 then there's no correlation with causation regarding your highly regarded predictor (pressure rates, sack rates, and hurry rates) and winning result/picking team ATS.
I don't know all the important metrics that go into your process or predictor model but why not revisit the big ones first, make sure they're rock solid. No need to wait for father time to give you the answer 3 years from now after you've been bludgeoned another 120 units. I applaud you for reducing your units but maybe you can consider reducing even more for the time being until you get this little situation sorted out. I recommend having some skin in the game instead of shutting it down. I equate this to paper trading stocks ... it has its limitations ... you don't truly learn how to trade until you have money on the line. You'll never learn from your mistakes until you make them with your hard-earned dollars. Same concept here. I wish you the best, I hope I don't sound like some know it all prick, just hoping you turn it around. Good luck.
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