This isn't a bet on the offenses failing; it's a sophisticated play on the conditions and philosophy of this specific game. The public sees the marquee quarterbacks and is betting on a shootout. The sharp play is on the environment, the pace, and the schematic chess match.
This total is too high for a game that will be dictated by two dominant, clock-draining principles. The Packers operate at the slowest, most methodical pace in the entire league, and the Eagles employ a run-centric, ground-control offense that is happy to bleed the clock for thirty-five minutes. There is no "hurry-up" impulse in this game.
Furthermore, you have two elite defensive units matching up perfectly. The Packers' defense is a top-tier unit built to stop the run and, more importantly, is statistically elite at preventing the deep pass. They will force the Eagles into long, methodical drives. On the other side, the Eagles' defense plays a "bend-don't-break" style, content to give up yards between the twenties—which keeps the clock running—before suffocating teams in the red zone and forcing field goals.
Add in the classic Lambeau November conditions—cold, swirling winds, and a "feels like" temperature that numbs fingers and makes the ball hard as a rock—and you have the perfect script. This won't be a game of explosive plays; it will be a gritty, fourth-quarter battle of field position where every drive is earned, and every point is contested. This is a classic field-goal-fest masquerading as a primetime shootout.
10
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
EAGLES/PACKERS "UNDER" 44 (-110)
This isn't a bet on the offenses failing; it's a sophisticated play on the conditions and philosophy of this specific game. The public sees the marquee quarterbacks and is betting on a shootout. The sharp play is on the environment, the pace, and the schematic chess match.
This total is too high for a game that will be dictated by two dominant, clock-draining principles. The Packers operate at the slowest, most methodical pace in the entire league, and the Eagles employ a run-centric, ground-control offense that is happy to bleed the clock for thirty-five minutes. There is no "hurry-up" impulse in this game.
Furthermore, you have two elite defensive units matching up perfectly. The Packers' defense is a top-tier unit built to stop the run and, more importantly, is statistically elite at preventing the deep pass. They will force the Eagles into long, methodical drives. On the other side, the Eagles' defense plays a "bend-don't-break" style, content to give up yards between the twenties—which keeps the clock running—before suffocating teams in the red zone and forcing field goals.
Add in the classic Lambeau November conditions—cold, swirling winds, and a "feels like" temperature that numbs fingers and makes the ball hard as a rock—and you have the perfect script. This won't be a game of explosive plays; it will be a gritty, fourth-quarter battle of field position where every drive is earned, and every point is contested. This is a classic field-goal-fest masquerading as a primetime shootout.
I agree with the play and the majority of what you said. Except the Packers D is not built to stop the run. They are better overall with Parsons as a unit no doubt about it. But the loss of Kenny Clark has hurt their run defense.
i went with a teaser of GB+7 and under 52.
Good luck and thank you for all you do. Keep it up!
1
I agree with the play and the majority of what you said. Except the Packers D is not built to stop the run. They are better overall with Parsons as a unit no doubt about it. But the loss of Kenny Clark has hurt their run defense.
i went with a teaser of GB+7 and under 52.
Good luck and thank you for all you do. Keep it up!
I did take this into account, Eagles Offense is sustainable in the Red Zone, but I am calculating both these teams play a very conservative grind it out game. Minimizing mistakes and turn-overs but trading field position all night to the tune of a score of 17-20 either way.
2
@PackerBacker04
I did take this into account, Eagles Offense is sustainable in the Red Zone, but I am calculating both these teams play a very conservative grind it out game. Minimizing mistakes and turn-overs but trading field position all night to the tune of a score of 17-20 either way.
It is hard to ignore how well both these two teams are coached. And they have Great QB's. I give the better Defense and lean to GB, the Eagles have owned them as of late. If I had to put my best guess and knowledge forward, I would take Green Bay to edge this but it is too close to a coin flip for me to wager anything on this but this TOTAL I love
1
@jpot34
It is hard to ignore how well both these two teams are coached. And they have Great QB's. I give the better Defense and lean to GB, the Eagles have owned them as of late. If I had to put my best guess and knowledge forward, I would take Green Bay to edge this but it is too close to a coin flip for me to wager anything on this but this TOTAL I love
Line lord great write ups and analysis win or lose. Hey what total would you have set just out of curiosity? I hate unders but always feel there is understated value in them because overs are more appealing.
1
Line lord great write ups and analysis win or lose. Hey what total would you have set just out of curiosity? I hate unders but always feel there is understated value in them because overs are more appealing.
Great call. Green Bay Offense is a freaking mess, Either Lafluer has zero trust in Love or Lafluer has got to go. You can't keep running the ball into a 9 man FRONT every first and second down. The offense is so predictable and has zero flow to it. We all Know Hurts can't throw the ball down field. The Rams and Seattle look like the teams in the NFC.
0
@LineLord
Great call. Green Bay Offense is a freaking mess, Either Lafluer has zero trust in Love or Lafluer has got to go. You can't keep running the ball into a 9 man FRONT every first and second down. The offense is so predictable and has zero flow to it. We all Know Hurts can't throw the ball down field. The Rams and Seattle look like the teams in the NFC.
Anything near 31-34 would have been my total. This is playing out as predicted. Totals Over or Under are just a way of seeing value to make money on any given bet. I don't get juiced on the excitement of the game but rather enjoy breaking down the match-up and seeing what the odds makers don't. Beating their algorithms and Public perception on any given game is what gets me lit up. I love the challenge of truly dissecting a game.
5
@MatthewJL46
Anything near 31-34 would have been my total. This is playing out as predicted. Totals Over or Under are just a way of seeing value to make money on any given bet. I don't get juiced on the excitement of the game but rather enjoy breaking down the match-up and seeing what the odds makers don't. Beating their algorithms and Public perception on any given game is what gets me lit up. I love the challenge of truly dissecting a game.
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