JAN 18/19

116-100   +1585

2U  HOU +8.5 -108

This is basically giving a lot of credit to the way HOU DEF has stepped up.  I do not think KC will have the firepower to get a two-TD lead and keep it.  The weakest part of HOU DEF is the RUN DEF.  However, the KC RUN unit is actually a negatively rated efficient unit.

KC still has Mahomes, of course.  But I think there is a chance that they come out a bit flat because of too much time off.  Mahomes and KC are still only 16-17 ATS with the advantage of rest.  KC did a great job this year winning within a one-score margin, 10 games; only 4 games were won by more than 8 points. (1-5 ATS this year when favored by 7 or more)

I did see these numbers as well. Mahomes/KC are 54-15 SU since Mahomes was named the starter in 2018, but they’re just 31-35-3 ATS.

So, there are some ATS trends that KC will have to buck with a ‘large’ spread like this.  I think that HOU will also have a tad of confidence from last week’s nice win.

I feel that if HOU gets the ball and scores first, or stops KC and then can score first — this is a solid chance for HOU to cover.

However, if KC happens to get the lead early and their DEF goes into lockdown mode on HOU/Stroud and their PASS game — they have a chance to take a big lead.

I say this with the caveat of Mixon actually having a nice game last week.  This, by far, is the weakest unit HOU has — they also have a negative RUN game, and KC RUN DEF is also their weakest unit.

So, there is some chance that the RUN game can actually help Stroud — whereas, it has not helped much at all this season.

2U WAS +10 -117

I think this will come down to how well Daniels plays.  I pointed out last week the awful record 1st-year QBs have in their 1st playoff game against an experienced QB when talking about Nix.  Daniels exceeded the expectations.

If he is able to get rid of the ball clean, he should do well.  If he opts to take off, he should have great success running against DET.

One issue will be how well Daniels handles the Red Zone DEF of DET.  If they can break through for TDs, instead of settling for FGs, early in the game, then I think they can keep it closer than 10 points.

I saw this, which is interesting to consider:

“Daniels also has a ridiculous 98.1 QBR against the blitz over the past 6 games, so it’s going to be extremely difficult for Detroit to rattle this budding superstar just by bringing extra pressure.”

“The trends aren’t kind to home teams in this situation either. Per Evan Abrams, home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are 33-42-1 against the spread (44%) since 2003. Additionally, they are 17-24-1 against the number (42%) as favorites of 7 or more points off a bye. Even against a team playing in its 2nd straight postseason road game, the team coming off the bye is still 15-22-1 ATS (41%).”

1U WAS U55.5 -107

DET DEF has improved and RZ DEF is great.  DET should mix it up enough to continue having their long drives.  This is a very key total number in the NFL, so it is worth taking a small chance if the game plays out the way I think it might.

2U LAR +6 -103

If Stafford can keep from making the same mistakes that Love did last week, I think they keep this close.  I feel that Stafford simply has more options and experience under pressure.  I think McVay will have both sides of his team ready.  If they can pressure Hurts into rushing his throws, he has not really looked that good.

But if PHL DEF takes over the game, like they did last week, I feel the LAR DEF has shown they can step up as well.  So, if it is a low-scoring game because of that, then it can be a close game.  This, coupled with the possibility that the gameplan might be a lot of Barkley to help Hurts, might slow the game down enough to keep it close.

But there is some concern that PHL and HURTS are due to have a breakout on OFF, and the LAR is due to play as they did earlier in the year.  I am betting on both units for LAR to be at their best and the PHL team relying on their DEF and running game and passing only when necessary.

1U LAR U44 -110

This is a play on the weather, especially the wind.  It looks right now that it will be borderline the MPH that will affect the total.

It also is a play on the much better play of both DEFs down the stretch.

.5U Hurts U205.5 Passing Yds -115

.5U Hurts O37.5 Rushing Yds -113

.5U Elliot O 6.5 Kicking PTs -149

2U BLT -1 -102

This will not be a rookie QB coming to BUF this weekend, but a QB having one of the best years ever.  However, does one good game in the playoffs mean that Jackson has overcome his playoff woes or not?  That will have to be shown.

This game is a matchup of two QBs with high expectations that need to show they can be elite in the playoffs and get to the Super Bowl — and win it.

It has been a while since the expectations for two QBs in the playoffs have been so high, and they have been matched against each other.  

BUF and Allen looked good against the best PASS DEF unit last week.  But the BLT whole DEF unit has really looked better late in the season and they are used to these types of games.

The weakest unit on the field should be the BLT RUN DEFENSE.  But they did a very good job against a decent run unit last week.  Even though PIT was obviously trying to establish the run.  I had the Allen over rushing attempts last week, and I think he simply has more options in the running game to make it work.

The other issue could be that the basic read-option plays that BLT was running so effectively last week may not be as effective against BUF.

So, the other mismatch should be the BLT PASS game against one of the worst PASS DEF units in the league, and certainly the worst one left in the playoffs.

So, if BUF concentrates on containing Henry, I think Jackson can take advantage of this through the air and possibly running himself.

A lot of this will depend on the weather.  If the game turns ugly because of this, that is a type of game BLT is very used to playing.

Good luck Raiders.  

@Raiders22

I feel that if HOU gets the ball and scores first, or stops KC and then can score first — this is a solid chance for HOU to cover.

However, if KC happens to get the lead early and their DEF goes into lockdown mode on HOU/Stroud and their PASS game — they have a chance to take a big lead.

Accurate assessment here   

One question though, how are you getting KC's run defense is a negatively rated efficiency unit?  DVOA has them 9th in the league (passing 17th) just behind the Bills

Nice input 22. GL 

@kcblitzkrieg

The Overall rating of efficient stats that make up the WAR is negative in their rushing game.

It is 28th at -.5

PE/Play is 28th -.017

EPA/A is 13th 0.00

Positive play% 10th 45.1%

YAC/att 32nd 2.2

BT&MT/A% 31st 8.9%

Hit at line% 7th 40%

Stuff% 8th 17.6%

Designed gap% 11th 70.7%

Blown Block% for Runs 13th 3.26%

BUT

Blown Block for Pass% is 1st 1.529%

Rushing WAR in 1-score game 27th -.4

Rushing WAR in 3rd/4th Q 26th -.2

It comes down to not having a solid RB — none of the 3 they use, Hunt, Steele, or Pacheco have been very good.

Some of the numbers that do look decent seem more to be coach-scheming and O-Line play than RB performance.  The coaching and designed plays look decent.  They are mixing the plays up well.  They are hitting the correct gaps.

The line is keeping them from getting stuffed.

But the RB numbers after contact and breaking and missing tackles are just not there.  Mahomes is the their most effective runner.  This is not uncommon with a mobile QB.  But Mahomes is doing it more than he should have to.

The issue is that they do not have the RBs that can take full advantage of the line play and the coaching mixture of play-calling.

But all they need is one to heir RBs to get hot and then ride him enough to allow Mahomes to do his thing.

@kcblitzkrieg

Their RUN DEF WAR is their weakest Unit on DEF.

They are 18th at .3

PS/Play is 20th at .309

EPA/A is 15th at -.03

But PASS DEF WAR is 14th at .9

PASS RUSH WAR is 10th at 1.3

So, I was saying that a way a team could take advantage of their DEF was to be able to run on them effectively.

I do not think HOU can do it though.  Because their running game has been bad.  BUT Mixon looked good last week.

So, it will be interesting to see how it plays out.

I keep telling everyone the swifty energy is weak this season. You have a chance. 

@Raiders22

 Guess which team D ranks #1 versus the run??? Hint, it ain't the Bills. 

@Buffalobob89074

 No sir.  Not for the year.  

But if you look at their last 5,6,7 game rolling average -- they have been very solid.

Top 1 or 2.  They look great against the run.

But for sure, this will be their final exam of the year against the run.

@Raiders22

 Understood, thanks.  

 Pacheco has always had poor vision and consistently leaves yards to be gained on the field.  He runs hard and that's about it.  When Hunt came back off his couch you could immediately see the difference but that didn't last long and he hit a wall after 4-5 games.  He's an upgrade over Pacheco in goal to go situations and Andy apparently feels the same as he has had the lead duty in those and other short yardage situations.  

@kcblitzkrieg

 Nice assessment 

@Raiders22

 Great write up. I was going to bet KC early in the week, but I’ve gathered enough information over the last two days to feel confident that Houston is the right side. I hate the fact that I’m backing CJ on the road in a cold weather game, but I have the line on the game between KC -3.5 and KC-6. I cant gather any information from anywhere including about a dozen power ratings that show KC being 8 points better than Houston.

Can you explain, if you get a chance what WAR is again? And why you value it so much personally? I recall you bringing up these numbers multiple times in previous conversations.

@brn2loslive2win

Let me preface this by saying if you like KC, it is very, very hard to go wrong with them. 

They have Mahomes.   

As, I always say the NFL is now more offensive-driven, and, therefore, QB is the most important thing to consider — and it is not really close.

Certain QBs are hard to bet against, and you better have a great reason to bet against them; you, likely, need multiple reasons. 

Brady, Burrow, Rodgers, Montana, or any other all-time great that is also good ATS is hard to go against.  56% or better, etc. 

Mahomes is 13-5 ATS in the playoffs as well.  That is outrageously phenomenal.  

Mahomes is worth more to the spread than any other player.  Maybe a tad over 7.5 points.  Likely, a half-point better than Jackson or Allen.  

Mahomes was also worth more to the spread than any other QB/backup combo before this year.  Now, with Wentz, it is not as stark, but it is still huge. 

That coach/QB combo is very, very driven, and want to win 3 SBs in a row.  

So, if you like KC at all — it should be hard to dissuade you from them. 

I just have to look at them as winning close games this year and maybe being slow out of the gate after the bye (and 2 weeks off for starters) and the weather and HOU motivated after last week.  

If it looks like they have the game ‘wrapped up, I could see Reid easing up — knowing how tough the game next week will be.

BUT IF you like KC — you can almost ‘blindly’ bet them and be fine.

WAR is Wins Above Replacement.

I am not sure how detailed an answer you want.  So this is basic, but still longer than it needs to be.

It comes from baseball.  It is a ‘sabermetric’ way of using numbers from various statistics and analyzing them to compile one unique number to evaluate players.

You can use this form of analytics to get an overall idea of the value a player has to his team versus a ‘replacement-level’ player.

This has been done in other areas and sports now, including the NFL.  It is also done for segments of a team (DEF/OFF, etc.) or as an overall team number, or for individual players.

The basic idea is to clean up the data and to use data that truly matters more.

In the old days, standard statistics from box scores were used.  Now it can be demonstrated that it is more effective to use more pertinent numbers.

In other words, it may be more valuable to see a team that has gained more yards in critical situations, as opposed to just gaining more yards because you are playing a weak team and running up the score.

So, now with better analysis and computers, you can ascertain certain numbers that matter more than the ‘normal’ numbers in a game.

WAR will be a scaled version of Points Above Replacement that is based on the scoring environment. 

PAR will be the difference between the player’s Points Above Average and the PAA of a replacement-level player at the same position in the same facet of the game.

PAA will take in various factors like: The total of a player’s EPA responsibility on passes using the Total Points system that distributes credit among all players on the field for a given play. For passers, this includes accounting for offensive line play, sacks, off-target passes, dropped passes, and dropped interceptions.  For other positions, it would be various other statistics.

When you have this final number for a team, it will give you somewhat of a comparison for a starting point.

You can look at different unit matchups, like Passing Offense versus Passing Defense.

You can parse out the numbers to be situational to see how teams/players perform in tight games, pressure situations, later in games, etc.

This is a great year to point out the intricacies of looking at this.

I wrote about this elsewhere and I think I posted it on Covers as well, in part.

The MVP race should basically be down to a few players late in the season.  You could have some arguments for Barkley or Henry and maybe a defensive guy or two.

But it was always going to come down to the QBs — and just 3-5 of those.

I think Jackson should win.  At the time I wrote it, Allen looked to win.  I would not have a big problem with it.

There was a case to be made for Goff.

However, I think Burrow was by far the most efficient QB and was doing it with no O-Line and no running game — and was amazing.

I could also make the case for Mahomes because he was doing it with no running game and teams knew he had to throw to beat them — and he did it and very efficiently.

It just gives you a different perspective on how players/teams are really performing versus perception.  Or just having big numbers against weaker teams or piling on late in the game.

I use three different models.  

One I use looks at the efficiency matchups of teams.  You can also look at the last several games and have a ‘weighted-average’ as the season progresses.

Another model does not use the efficiency statistics but more standard and situational numbers.

All of this will only give you a starting point.  

The games still get played on the field and not the stat sheets.

But the point is that the box score will not be totally reflective of how the game played out every time.  But over a season they will average out to be more telling.

For example, I had the KC game at -3.5 and -5. 

So, using those as starting points I will decide how many standard deviations away from the line I am.  Then I will scale it according to the positive EV I see at various numbers.

Usually if I am 2-3 points away from the line, that is good for me.  I ‘think’ I see an edge there.

But with the NFL, you get a very limited amount of games to realize your perceived ‘edge’.

MLB and NHL, you have a lot more time to make up for variance.

That is the reason analytics has not done as well in the NFL as it has in MLB, for example.

You will have a lot of situations in MLB show up where you can make decisions of when to bring in a new pitcher for these reasons and be wrong.  But if you are right enough over the course of a season you will be fine.

In the NFL, you are going to only have so many 4th and 3s that you are supposed to go for it but do not get it.  These decisions can make a coach look bad, lose games and get the coach fired;  even though the ‘analytics’ say go for it.  Owners and fans do not care about that.

So, these things are better in other sports, but can used for a good starting point in the NFL to begin looking at a game and a matchup.

A key thing is to keep in mind is that coaches know what their weaknesses are and what their opponents weaknesses are.  These are not secret — everyone knows them.

The good coaches will work on what they did poorly previously because they know the opponent will be scheming against that weakness.

So, these numbers cannot take into account the intangibles of a great scheming coach like Reid.  He has an awesome record after a bye.

It cannot take into account the intangibles of a Mahomes, that has an extraordinary will to win.

The game is still played on the field.  But every advantage to bet can be used.  Numbers are just one of the things to be used.

@Raiders22

 Great response and I appreciate it. Some of you guys on here are brilliant with the advanced metrics and I’m doing my best to learn as much as possible. This is the reason I continue to surf around covers. You and the guys like yourself are like gold to me. Thank you again. 

Is there any specific place that you go to to find WAR, PAR, etc.?

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes, it is interesting stuff if you are numbers guy and use them.  But if you do not, then you just continue to do what works for you.  I think it can only help or add to examining matchups.

I subscribe to a couple of sites that compile these.  But there are some good free ones.  I would just search for: advanced metrics, analytics, dvoa, etc.

Plenty of good sites will pop up that are free.  PFF has some, but I think you have to pay to get some of them. 

https://www.pff.com

https://rbsdm.com/stats/

https://nflsavant.com

These are a couple of random ones that you can play around and see if it is something you are interested in.

There may be some free ones that give you all that you would like.

But, again, the much smaller sample size in the NFL compared to MLB or NHL makes it hard to say if it is worth incorporating it, if what you are already doing is working.

PFF is very good.  I do not use them.  But look at them and see if you are interested.  Here is their explanation about their WAR ratings:

https://www.pff.com/war

If you are only interested in certain statistics you can do your own and be fine if you just plug it into a computer or have someone do it.

For example, two of the most important raw statistics are First Downs and Net Yards/Pass.  One that does not matter as much, or is negatively correlated, is Rushing Attempts.

But I would play around with it and see if it helps and if you are interested before buying anything.  

For sure, it is not for everyone.

Good luck 22

Gl r

Agree on hou, see a 24-19 type game..backdoor should be there at worst for Hou unless Stroud plays like garbage 

Agree on skins, you are betting in daniels  performance

Not sure if weather helps or hurts rams....if eagles corners struggle to cover due to footing the rams should probably win outright as stafford can sling it ....conversely the snow probably helps OL the  most and the eagles have the best OL in the league..so does saquon goe off for 150+ again and the eagles dominate TOP and win the game...plus with weather so many random plays can effect the outcome.. players slipping, fumbles, drops, muffed punts, harder FG conditions,  etc...

Bal/buf a toss up for me, lean ravens since they have better ground game but Lamar a known choke artist...still think it comes down to which QB has the more dangerous scrambles or which QB converts most 1st downs with their legs

Sadly those numbers are inflated by the last 3 games vs ne twice and nyj  ..both terrible run teams

Ind, sf, and even LAR had success running ball

Detroit abandoned the run cause bills were smoking them

@dubz4dummyz

 Nice points.

G/L to you as well