You might look at the Niners right now and think they are completely depleted. The injuries are piling up and it feels like every week another starter goes down. Brock Purdy is out with turf toe and will not play against the Rams. Receivers Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and Jordan Watkins are all unavailable. George Kittle is still on injured reserve. Brandon Aiyuk is also out. Nick Bosa is lost for the year with a torn ACL. On paper that looks like a disaster and it raises real questions about whether the training staff and even the head coach have failed this roster.
Even with all that the defense still has teeth. Through three games the 49ers defense ranks number six in DVOA. Last season they finished thirteenth overall in the same metric. They are allowing about one hundred and sixty five passing yards per game which puts them near the very top of the league in that category. Against the run they have given up four hundred sixty two yards on one hundred and sixteen attempts which is about four yards per carry. In terms of total yards allowed they are giving up just over three hundred seventeen yards per game which puts them seventh in the NFL. The pass rush is not the same without Bosa but they have adjusted with more blitzes and heavier safety usage to cover the gaps. It is still a group that forces mistakes and creates tough situations for quarterbacks.
Fred Warner remains the heartbeat of this team. He is an all world linebacker who controls the entire defense with his communication and his playmaking. He is the one calling out changes before the snap and cleaning up mistakes when things break down. And then there is Deommodore Lenoir. His name has been misspelled and overlooked plenty of times but his play is speaking loudly now. He has steadily improved every season since being drafted and he has developed into a reliable outside corner. He is extremely underrated and this could be the year he finally makes his first Pro Bowl.
Even with the offense gutted the Niners are not going to roll over. Christian McCaffrey will be leaned on heavily to carry the ball and keep the chains moving. Kyle Shanahan will scheme short passes just to give the quarterback something easy and keep the defense honest. The Rams have dangerous receivers and Matthew Stafford still has the ability to make big throws but this is not going to be easy against a secondary anchored by Lenoir and supported by smart safety rotations.
The bottom line is that even if the Niners are running on fumes this is still a defense that refuses to quit. I do not see the Rams putting up more than four touchdowns in this matchup.
Play: Rams Team Total Under 28.5 (-148) (DraftKings)
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