All Forums | NFL Betting Forum

Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share

...

Participants:

Posts: 683

topperchris

Veteran

Joined: Aug, 2005

Posts: 1324

Posted: Nov. 23, 2012 - 4:15 PM ET #126

great job...detroit was the correct play...dallas wins a couple then always loses as a favorite

pcz

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 348

Posted: Nov. 23, 2012 - 4:36 PM ET #127

We had a nice week so far AFN! Have you had a chance to run the numbers for this week for all matches?

AFNfootballnerd

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 4050

Posted: Nov. 23, 2012 - 10:34 PM ET #128

have a lot of low line spreads but not gonna touch bad team match ups...match ups I like this week

Ravens -1 @ chargers

Niners -1 @ saints

falcons-1 @ bucs

packers+3 @ giants

Gonna run these games numbers as I love these low line spreads

AFNfootballnerd

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 4050

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 3:19 AM ET #129

Ran the numbers for Sundays plays...

Ravens 3.5% @ Chargers -10%

likening the offensive calculations...defense calculations are similar but program has ravens 12% ranked 1 in special teams...better offensive numbers and best special teams this week...like these numbers..
Pick Ravens -1

Niners 25% @ Saints 18%

slight edge niners on offense...but the difference in defense is huge...SF -15% NO 18%...so niners slight edge in offense and a dominating defense ill take niners
Pick niners -1

Falcons 3% @ Bucs 8%

slight edge Tampa offensively and they both have exact defensive percentages at 1%...no wonder this games a pickem...slight edge Tampa and playing at home...
Pick Bucs pickem

Packers 18% Giants 10%

slight edge on offense...defense numbers packers -12% giants -3%
Consistency numbers..packers ranked 13 giants ranked 31...so we have better numbers on both sides of the ball for packers and a inconsistent giants at home...
Pick Packers +3

NFL_Sharp

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2012

Posts: 179

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 3:36 AM ET #130

Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:

Ran the numbers for Sundays plays...

Ravens 3.5% @ Chargers -10%

likening the offensive calculations...defense calculations are similar but program has ravens 12% ranked 1 in special teams...better offensive numbers and best special teams this week...like these numbers..
Pick Ravens -1

Niners 25% @ Saints 18%

slight edge niners on offense...but the difference in defense is huge...SF -15% NO 18%...so niners slight edge in offense and a dominating defense ill take niners
Pick niners -1

Falcons 3% @ Bucs 8%

slight edge Tampa offensively and they both have exact defensive percentages at 1%...no wonder this games a pickem...slight edge Tampa and playing at home...
Pick Bucs pickem

Packers 18% Giants 10%

slight edge on offense...defense numbers packers -12% giants -3%
Consistency numbers..packers ranked 13 giants ranked 31...so we have better numbers on both sides of the ball for packers and a inconsistent giants at home...
Pick Packers +3

My system's projections for these four:

Bal 24 SD 20

SF 33 NO 30

Atl 17 TB 31

GB 19 NYG 17

I definitely agree on the first three and think the last in more or less a toss up (but I do lean GB). Best of luck this week.

salsaboy27

Rookie

Joined: Oct, 2006

Posts: 982

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 4:10 AM ET #131

I like the SF and TB assessment for they are clearly the hot team. However, NYG are coming off a bye and they are ready to play the big game in the second half of the season as they always do. No running game for the packers and I'll take the giants pass rush all day. SD is a good underdog at home...and they have beaten the ravens before last year on blow out. Ravens might be out for revenge but I think SD plays harder this game because as they always put a string of W's in late november and december. GL to all your plays though.

AFNfootballnerd

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 4050

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 4:11 AM ET #132

Quote Originally Posted by NFL_Sharp:

My system's projections for these four:

Bal 24 SD 20

SF 33 NO 30

Atl 17 TB 31

GB 19 NYG 17

I definitely agree on the first three and think the last in more or less a toss up (but I do lean GB). Best of luck this week.

Nice! As we both have similar projections...greenbay will be a tough game but I'm going with the consistency numbers...I rarely bet giants but like to fade them in favorite spots...appreciate sharing your system numbers

Ibchris81

Rookie

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 679

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 6:33 AM ET #133

This thread is a definently one to look at each Sunday. AFN and NFL are both great cappers and working together we will finish the season strong. Best of luck to all and lets kill the bookies this weekend.....

Gigimike99

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 8

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 7:57 AM ET #134

Nice job guys! Been on a roll! I appreciate your hard work.

middleman820

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2009

Posts: 1013

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 8:46 AM ET #135

Quote Originally Posted by salsaboy27:

I like the SF and TB assessment for they are clearly the hot team. However, NYG are coming off a bye and they are ready to play the big game in the second half of the season as they always do. No running game for the packers and I'll take the giants pass rush all day. SD is a good underdog at home...and they have beaten the ravens before last year on blow out. Ravens might be out for revenge but I think SD plays harder this game because as they always put a string of W's in late november and december. GL to all your plays though.

UNLESS YOU HAVE ANAL DATA TO SHARE YOUR ADVICE IS USELESS! WE ONLY USE DATA AND DO NOT CARE ABOUT YOUR FOOTBALL OPINIONS!!

cardifkill

Veteran

Joined: Jun, 2012

Posts: 2583

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 12:58 PM ET #136

AFN

pcz

Prospect

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 348

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 7:38 PM ET #137

Lets give it a shot. I like the first 3 plays. Went 4-0 and 2-0 on MNF with your offense vs. defense calculations and my other systems that I'm following.

Confident plays:
Bucs
SF
Balt

Pho_Hawk

Prospect

Joined: Oct, 2011

Posts: 39

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 8:33 PM ET #138

Thanks for posting and your time. GL tomorrow

Crashdavis565

MVP

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 15772

Posted: Nov. 24, 2012 - 9:56 PM ET #139

You can run your numbers all you want but you should also look at motivation.

Ravens are in a terrible spot playing a sandwich game between two games with Pitt.

They are the better team but that team does not always win on Sunday.

Just a thought

millerman2008

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 8

Posted: Nov. 25, 2012 - 1:43 AM ET #140

AFNfootballnerd Just wondering if you could run the numbers for the broncos against the chiefs. It's a 1PM game, and I would like to see what your model projects on that game.

AFNfootballnerd

Veteran

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 4050

Posted: Nov. 25, 2012 - 2:14 AM ET #141

Quote Originally Posted by millerman2008:

AFNfootballnerd Just wondering if you could run the numbers for the broncos against the chiefs. It's a 1PM game, and I would like to see what your model projects on that game.

Have Denver ranked 3rd in rankings vs KC ranked dead last at 32...

Offense- Denver 18% KC -30%

Defense- Denver -18% KC 11%

Line sitting at +10 as a double digit spread i personally would not touch this game....there are better games on the board to bet on...but given those numbers and a gun to my head ill take Denver ML....GL with your wager if u decide to play...

white12hino

Prospect

Joined: Nov, 2012

Posts: 77

Posted: Nov. 25, 2012 - 2:24 AM ET #142

Hey just saw your thread and looks interesting. BOL sunday!!!!

theilleffect

Prospect

Joined: Feb, 2011

Posts: 207

Posted: Nov. 25, 2012 - 2:37 AM ET #143

As I have mentioned earlier not being a huge fan of systems, but I have to hand it to you sir...this is GREAT!!! Keep up the awesome work AFN and I wish you the best on the remainder of the season. Was curious on what numbers you get when you run the CIN/OAK game...was wanting to see what the system projects for the inconsistency of OAK. If you have the time, do you mind running it please??? Thanks in advance.