It's Playoff Time...............................2014

Seahawks -8 over Saints --- 11 units to win 10 units.............Best Bet Play

Could of had Seahawks -7 (-130), decided to pass on that and wait it out and now got -8. Doubt if it'll matter, I see a 14 to 17 point win.

Good Luck this week and enjoy all the great games. 

Last week shows the importance of getting the best available lines.

I'm a big believer in buying half a point to key numbers like 3,7,10.

The problem is, when using the closing line sometimes the line can move against me and I can't get the best line.

This got me last year in the NFC Championship game when I got 9ers -4 and pushed instead of winning.

To solve the problem I planned a stratergy as I mentioned above, to get the best line then buy back the other side if the closing line moves to less than a 6 point difference.

Would of worked out just beautiful. The Charger line did drop to less than 6 points, I would of bought Denver down to 7 from 7.5 and pushed and won had I stuck to my planned stratergy.

I was back and forth all week which way I wanted to play this.

Then the line on Seattle began to move my choice was made for me.

Because I was thinking to hard about this I forgot all about the value mismatch plays. SD was a huge value mismatch over Denver by 9.88 pts, and Seattle was large as well 7.97 over Saints.

My plan throughout the season was to do a post on Denver being the most overvalued team ever seen by the method, well actually tied with 2007 Pats who were almost an identical type team.

And the 2007 Pats went 0-3 ATS in playoffs, which I think is the only team to play in  the SB and not  cover the spread in any  game throughout the postseason , will Denver do the same ?

Those 2 teams are by far the most overvalued teams ever seen, I talked quite a bit about this at the beginning of the season in regards to Denver being so overvalued.

And overvalued teams over -5 have never won a SB yet , Saints at -5.26 already being eliminated.

I doubt if Denver gets it done this season.

Using this method I kind-of developed a theory on P. Manning's poor playoff record.

Manning consistently brings the most overvalued teams into the postseason using the 2cd power ratings posted which rewards team balance.

Is it possible that because P. Manning is so good the coach tries to build the team to much around 1 player instead of having more balance ?

There's a lot of evidence to support this. Of the Pats 5 SB teams, the 2004 team with Correy Dillion was the most dominate in the postseason. That team is the only Pats SB team which ran the ball more than 50% of plays coming into the playoffs.  When the Pats took the ball out of Brady's hands they won by larger margins in the postseason.  That team set some playoff records for length of scoring drives or some such thing.

Look at last weeks Colts game a 21 pt win. In 2007 with Randy Moss, Welker and many weapons Brady could not win by over 20 pts in any playoff game with one of the greatest passing offenses ever.

The SB winning 2006 Colts in the AFC Championship game after trailing the Pats 21-3 at half ,  later in the game Marvin Harrison said in the huddle when Colts got inside the 10 yd line, "let's run the ball ", and run the ball they did to get the TD and go on and win the game.

Maybe P. Manning is to good for his own good ?

Last week shows the importance of getting the best available lines.

I'm a big believer in buying half a point to key numbers like 3,7,10.

The problem is, when using the closing line sometimes the line can move against me and I can't get the best line.

This got me last year in the NFC Championship game when I got 9ers -4 and pushed instead of winning.

To solve the problem I planned a stratergy as I mentioned above, to get the best line then buy back the other side if the closing line moves to less than a 6 point difference.

Would of worked out just beautiful. The Charger line did drop to less than 6 points, I would of bought Denver down to 7 from 7.5 and pushed and won had I stuck to my planned stratergy.

I was back and forth all week which way I wanted to play this.

Then the line on Seattle began to move my choice was made for me.

Because I was thinking to hard about this I forgot all about the value mismatch plays. SD was a huge value mismatch over Denver by 9.88 pts, and Seattle was large as well 7.97 over Saints.

My plan throughout the season was to do a post on Denver being the most overvalued team ever seen by the method, well actually tied with 2007 Pats who were almost an identical type team.

And the 2007 Pats went 0-3 ATS in playoffs, which I think is the only team to play in  the SB and not  cover the spread in any  game throughout the postseason , will Denver do the same ?

Those 2 teams are by far the most overvalued teams ever seen, I talked quite a bit about this at the beginning of the season in regards to Denver being so overvalued.

And overvalued teams over -5 have never won a SB yet , Saints at -5.26 already being eliminated.

I doubt if Denver gets it done this season.

Using this method I kind-of developed a theory on P. Manning's poor playoff record.

Manning consistently brings the most overvalued teams into the postseason using the 2cd power ratings posted which rewards team balance.

Is it possible that because P. Manning is so good the coach tries to build the team to much around 1 player instead of having more balance ?

There's a lot of evidence to support this. Of the Pats 5 SB teams, the 2004 team with Correy Dillion was the most dominate in the postseason. That team is the only Pats SB team which ran the ball more than 50% of plays coming into the playoffs.  When the Pats took the ball out of Brady's hands they won by larger margins in the postseason.  That team set some playoff records for length of scoring drives or some such thing.

Look at last weeks Colts game a 21 pt win. In 2007 with Randy Moss, Welker and many weapons Brady could not win by over 20 pts in any playoff game with one of the greatest passing offenses ever.

The SB winning 2006 Colts in the AFC Championship game after trailing the Pats 21-3 at half ,  later in the game Marvin Harrison said in the huddle when Colts got inside the 10 yd line, "let's run the ball ", and run the ball they did to get the TD and go on and win the game.

Maybe P. Manning is to good for his own good ?

Oh Boy the ole dreaded double post.

What I meant by Charger line dropping to less than 6 pts, was the difference between my line and actual line was less than 6 pts needed for a play.

We needed the closing line to be 9 or better in the majority of books.

However we should of still had a Chargers play based on the large value mismatch between Chargers and Broncos which I forgot about.

On to this weeks Championship games...........................

Using the 1st power ratings post my lines are......................0-1 ATS, lost 11 units

This power ratings had no plays last week. Lost with Eagles in wild card round.

Seattle -10.89 over 9ers

Denver -11.03 over Pats

Value mismatches.............................

Seattle +4.64

Denver +1.72

We have a play on Seattle as long as the line stays below -4.5.

We have a play on Denver as long as the line stays -5 or below at the majority of books.

Seattle looks like a definite play, Denver will depend on the late action.

2cd Power Ratings posted ......................................0-1-1 ATS, lost 11 units

Record of games posted but we easily were on the right sides last week as I pointed out above.

Seattle -7.44 over 9ers

Denver -3.93 over Pats

Value Mismatches.............................

Seattle +1.17

Pats +5.37

Any mismatch over 5 has proven a winning play over the years. This favors the Pats as I've already mentioned about Denver being the most overvalued team ever.

This is the 1st time I've seen a power rating and value mismatch take different teams, assuming the closing line  is -5 or below.

I would lean to go with the line, it has a better record long term.

Let's take a look at common denominators of SB Champs and teams to get to the SB.

One of the most important which will tell the tales of this years Championship games is.....................total yards differential.

Teams that win SB's outgain their opponents by at least 35 yards or more bare minimum.

Teams under +15 need not apply this late in the postseason.

Now, this does not apply to surprise teams like Ravens, Gaints and others who played weak in the regular season and just upped their games in the playoffs.

Teams who've played strong in the regular season need to be strong in this stat to advance beyond this week.

Seattle +65.75

9ers +6.8

Denver +101.31

Pats +11.44

I would look for both Seattle and Denver to advance to the SB.

Common Denominators of teams from the wild card round............................

Teams coming out of the wild card round and making and/or  winning SB's have 1 thing in common, they all expect 99 Titans,  vastly improved their passing effeincy differentials in the playoffs.

Do the 9ers stack-up ?

QBPR......................

VS GB --- 75.3-97.8 = -22.5,  9ers outplayed by a good amount

VS Panthers --- 87.8-79.9= 7.9, 9ers barely outplayed panthers

average per game --- (-7.3) 9ers outplayed in this key wild card indicator

Ave per pass att.........................................

VS GB --- 6.5-5.2 = 1.3, 9ers nice job there

VS Panthers --- 6.1-7.7 = (-1.6), 9ers outplayed again.

Ave per week --- (-.15) outplayed on ave over both playoff games

Ole man history says there's nothing SUPER about this niner team.

Why does everyone love the 9ers this week ?

For one they are defending conference  champs and combinding that with being the hottest team coming into the playoffs and the championship games everybody and their brother is jumping on the bandwagon.

I looked back to 2006 and the team winning the most games coming into the playoffs had not posted a winning spread record in any of those season in the playoffs.

There's no evidence that being hot helps teams, but I suspect people feel very good about their plays backing such teams, even if they lose they will still feel they made a great play when there's no evidence to support it.

I look at every SB winner back to 2005, which was the start of the wild cards teams winning  most SB's  not just getting there which previously began in 1997.

4 of the 8 SB winners, 50% did not play all that well  coming into the playoffs.

2005 Pitt was 4-0, 2008 Pitt was 5-1, 2010 GB was only 2-0 if you want to call that hot, not sure it is. And 2-2 last 4 and scored just 10 points in the final game which they needed to win in order to even make the playoffs. 2011 Gaints were 3-1 but 3-4 last 7.

2012 Ravens were at best 1-1, and 1-4 over last 5 games. 2007 Gaints were 1-1 at best, 1-2, 2-2 , 3-2 and 3-3, hardly setting the world on fire. 2006 Colts , 1-1, 2-1, 2-2, 2-3, again not exactly world beators. 2009 Saints 0-3 coming into playoffs, 2-3 last 5 with those 2 wins by just 3 points a piece.

Here's the problem with how people look at and use info.

Because for a team from the wild card round to win the SB they need to win 4 straight games, well, after winning 4 straight  people look they were hot in the playoffs.

But that's looking at it AFTER THE FACT, NOT BEFORE.

No one could of predicted the Ravens last year by looking at how hot they were BEFORE the playoffs, even after the 1st and 2cd games they were not all that hot.

Best case senerio you could give the Ravens after wild card round was they were 2-1. Is that hot ? After beating Denver they were 3-1, is that really hot ?

It's only after beating the Pats and 9ers one could begin to say wow, they were hot 4-1 then 5-1, but that's to late, it's after the fact.

Look at how the 2012 Ravens, 2007 Gaints, 2006 Colts and 2009 Saints came into the playoffs, who's that resemble ?..........................................Seattle................................of coarse.

And that's 50% of the SB last 8 years, there's no evidence that hot teams are the right play, I fell good about backing your hot team 9ers fans but I'll call for a double digit win today for the Seahawks..............................Seattle by 14. 

Seattle -3 (-125) over 9ers --- 12.5 units to win 10 units

Won't be a back-door cover this week boys.

Pats have made the playoffs 10 times with Brady at QB.

They are 10-13-1 ATS.

They produced 3 winning ATS records and 5 losing ATS records in the playoffs with 2 years being 1-1 ATS.

Their best ATS record came in their 1st playoffs in 2001 season, 2-0-1 ATS.

As an SB winning  experienced team they produced just 2 winning ATS records in the next 9 times they made the playoffs to 5 losing records.

As a 3 time SB champ, they made the playoffs 7 times and produced just 1 winning ATS record to 4 losing records.

The Pats are the only SB winner to produce a losing spread record in their playoff run to winning the SB in 2003 season going 1-2 ATS,  since the 16 game schedule began in 1978.

The Pats are also I think the only team to play in  the SB and fail to cover every game in the postseason.

WOW, this team is definitely not a covering machine in the postseason. 

Denver -5 (-105) over Pats --- 5.25  units to win 5 units

I'll side with the over

Seahawks up next...................................

I'd side again with the over

Ole Man History roared his head in the championship games as the reliable indicators pointed one in the right direction.

Hottest team.............gone

Weak total yards teams................gone

Team that did not play  well down the stretch...............thriving

SUPER BOWL...............MY LINE..............................

Using the 1st power ratings posted.......................

Seattle 15.79   VS   Denver 10.53

Seattle -5.26

This power rating is 19-5 ATS over 9 seasons and 2-1 ATS this season with a 6 pt diff with the closing line.

Not sure the record in SB's but will post some past SB's with the ratings and lines in next couple of days.

Value mismatch .................Seattle +4.16   VS   Denver -2.41

Seattle by 6.57, Seattle is much better than the final scores in their games would suggest while Denver is not as good as the final scores in their games.

The 6.57 is the largest value mismatch of any game this playoffs using this power ratings.

 Eagles by 5.86 over Saints was the largest until now. Seattle by 4.64 over 9ers and by 4.42 over Saints were the top 3.

PLAYOFF ONLY LINE................................

Seattle 5.97   VS    Denver 2.94

Seattle - 3.03

Value mismatch................Seattle -1.04   VS   Denver -5.56

Seattle by 4.42

Playoff only line since 1997 is 12-3-1 ATS, including my call last year on the Ravens -8.8 over 9ers.

Playoff only line is 9-3 ATS with a 6 point difference to closing line.

Seattle has played better in both the regular season and the playoffs then Denver has in this power rating which is more pass heavy.

Denver is overvalued in both the regular season and playoffs, meaning they are not as good as their margin of victory would suggest.

Seattle has played easily the 2 better opponents in the playoffs..............Saints and 9ers ave power rating of 7.26...............compared to Denver's opponents, Chargers and Pats ave of 2.75.

Seattle played 13.23 above their opponents power rating , Denver just 5.69 above their opponents.

That'd be a 7.54 difference.

No doubt about who the better team is...........................it's Seattle.

Regular season strength of schedule................Seattle opponents averaged a -.69 power rating.

Denver's opp -1.53.

Seattle again played the slightly better opponents, adjusting for this Seattle -6.1 over Denver.

I don't really use strength of schedule but like to look at it, it verifies everything about Seattle being the better team.

SEATTLE +3 (-130) over DENVER --- 13 units to win 10 units.

Looking at the 2cd set of Power Ratings posted................................

Seattle 14.34

Denver 3.63

Seattle - 10.71

This power rating rewards overall-team  balance, better defense and teams that don't turn the ball over and Seattle wins in a landslide.

VALUE RATING.............................

Seattle +2.71

Denver -9.3

Seattle +12.01

Denver ranks as the most over-value team right with the 2007 Pats this method has seen by far and This is  the largest value mismatch I've ever seen.

This method tells us that Denver is no-where near as good as the final scores of their games while Seattle's play-on-the-field is far better then the final scores of the games would suggest.

And this is a big reason we're seeing sooooo many Denver backers.

The previous largest value mismatches in this years playoffs...............SD +9.88 over Denver........ Eagles +9.84 over Saints........... Seattle +7.97 over Saints

Looking at playoff only power rating ...................................

Seattle 7.35

Denver 3.12

Seattle -4.23, based on each teams play throughout the playoffs only.

Seattle's playoff opponents.........................

Saints 1.74

9ers 9.9

AVERAGE ..............5.82

Denver's playoff opponents..................

SD 3.63

Pats 2.7

AVERAGE .......................3.17

Seattle played better against better teams.

VALUE RATINGS PLAYOFFS ONLY ..........................

Seattle +.34

Denver -1.8

Seattle by 2.21

Anyway you want to slice it folks, IT'S AALLLLLLL SEAHAWKS ON SUPER BOWL SUNDAY !!!

Seattle ranks 9th best in the single most important stat in football with the highest correlation to victory and the highest prediction value going forward QBPR Differential since 1978.

10 of the previous 13 teams made the SB, now becomes 11 of 14.

Of the 10 teams to make the SB, 2 teams, 84  Dolphins and 9ers played each other making 8 other teams of which 7 won the SB. 

We can also add , about 70% of teams winning the SB finish +6 in Turnovers or better.............advantage Seattle.

Of the 55 teams in history to average 30 points or better just 14 have won the SB.