It's Playoff Time...............................2014

The playoffs are here boys, you know what that means..................we check-in with "the key stat battles".

Here's my Power Ratings using the key stat battles which have a high correlation to winning NFL games and a high predictive value going forward.

This method is a bit heavy toward the passing game but does account for overall team balance.

It considers offense and defense equally. I uses end-of-the-season-stats, and looks at those stats in the conventional way............by how much a team out-gains it's opponents in each key stat battle.

It does account for injuries like Rodgers and different players becoming starters such as Foles in Philly.

And the number 1 ranked team is......................................................

 1. Seahawks +15.79

2. Eagles +13.96

3. Denver +10.53

4. 49ers +7.9

5. Bengals +6.53

6. Saints +6.62

7. Packers +5.5

8. Panthers +5.21

9. Chiefs +4.1

10. Chargers +2.99

11. Pats +2.5

12. Colts +.65 

Hey Colts fans, somebody had to come-in last.................................

Foles just finished with the 3rd best season in history in QBPR (passer rating), his ave per pass att is historic as well and he has a excellent int rate.

All things that have proven to have high correlations to victory and predictive value.

 This method is pretty damn good, IN 9 seasons it's 19-5 ATS with a 6 pt difference between my line and the closing line.

It's produced just 1 losing year at 1-2 ATS in 2008 picking twice against the Giants who rolled to the SB win as the worst statistical team ever.

To get a line, just subtract the ratings and add 3 points to the home team. These ratings won't change untill the SB.

WILD CARD GAME LINES.....................................

Chiefs  -.45 over Colts 

Eagles -10.34 over Saints

Bengals -6.54 over Chargers

Packers -.61 over 49ers

I'll be coming large on the Eagles in the wild card round, with a 7.84 diff with the actual line.

I'll wait it-out to see if this line drops........................................

If you mean strengh of schedule, I tried that but it does not seem as accurate as  using no strengh of schedule.

Remember, FO outsiders did some research into how  teams perform against teams with winning records and teams with losing records and found the best indicator deep in the playoffs is........................how teams perform against teams with losing records, not against teams with winning records.  

That's called guts and stomps, it can be googled and found if anyone is interested in reading it. 

[Quote: Originally Posted by VegasSB] [/Quote

And The Most Undervalued Team Is....................................................

1. Eagles +5.56, in other words, the Eagles play on the field is 5.56 points per game better than their point margin

2. Seahawks +4.16

And The Most Overvalued Team Is........................................................

12. Pats -4.13, the Pats play on the field is 4.16 worse then their point margin. which suggest they got some lucky breaks, more than usual.

11. KC -3.71

10. Colts -2.79

9. Panthers -2.6

8. Broncos - 2.41

7. Bengals -1.28

6. 9ers -.48

5. Saints -.26

4. Packers -.11

3. SD -.01

And The Largest Value Mismatch Is.....................................

Eagles over Saints by 5.82 value points

The usually reliable largest value mismatch which has a strong history of success in every sport I've used it, lost last season on the Redskins over Seahawks.

However, the Skins took a 14 pt lead into the 4th quarter with their best player RGIII playing on 2 tore  knee ligaments, and it was pretty obvious it had a huge affect on his play.

If that's what it took to beat the method, all is good. I'd expect a big bounce back this season..................................................

Eagles -2.5 over Saints --- 11 units to win 10 units .................best bet play

I have 4 different versions of Power Ratings. I'll post another Power Ratings which is my favorite.

This Power Rating measures team balance, rewards better defenses and offenses that don't turn the ball over.

It does not use end-of-the-year stats, It charts team stats game-by-game, finding the average per game.

It does not look at stats in the conventional way as to how much a team out-gains it's opp.

Instead, it uses ratio, the ratio a team out-gains it's opp.

For example, A team wins the ave per pass battle 10 yds to 5 yds, that's a ratio of 2-1.

Another team could win the battle 7 yds to 3.5 yds that would also be 2-1.

The method sees these 2 teams as equal even though 1 team won by 5 yds while the other team won by only 3.5 yds.

So the team with the better defense was rewarded.

Each stat battle carries different wieght based on correlation to winning and predictive value.

This method sees things that can not be seen by looking at end-of-the-year stats.

This method has never produced a losing record with a 6 pt difference between the closing line.

Pass heavy teams won't do well in this method, pass heavy teams don't win SB's.

Pass heavy teams have beaten this method at times, but it has also called big upsets over pass heavy teams like the Jets over the  Pats, Seattle over the Saints, 49ers over the Saints.

Some of these numbers will seem crazy, however it does work well ATS.

And The Best Team Is..............................................

1,. Seahawks +14.34

2. Eagles +11.04

3. 9ers +9.9

4. Panthers +8.79

5. Packers +6.52

6. KC +5.49

7. Bengals +5.34

8. Broncos + 3.63

9. SD +3.63

10. Pats +2.7

11. Saints +1.74

12. Colts +1.05

Poor ole Colts fans, Colts bring up the rear again.........................

Keep in mind, this is used to pick games against the spread not always telling us how good each team is.

Interesting the Eagles are so far ahead of the Saints using a method that rewards defense, you would never see that by looking at end-of-the-year stats. This method sees things that otherwise just can't be seen.

Well, we'll see if the method can keep it's never posting a losing ATS record in the playoffs  intact.

A 6 pt diff in the closing line gives us a play.................................

The Wild Card Lines...................................

Eagles -12.3 over Saints

KC -1.44 over Colts

Bengals -4.71 over SD

9ers -.38 over Packers

It's aaalllllllllllllllllll Eagles saturady night !!!!.....................................

Thanks for the kind words. I use this system only for ATS picks with a 6 pt. diff to closing line.

Not so sure the other favs in the system will win SU.

The first power rating I posted will ussually  finish with a winning  SU record with all favs posted throughout the playoffs.

Sometimes it can be strong SU records but not always, sometimes it's a game or 2 over .500.

Seahawks would be my fav by far, they are one of the most dominate teams in history.

I'll have alot on them next week.

Each Power Rating has it's own value ranking.....................

And according to this Power Rating the most overvalued team is....................................................

12. Broncos by 9.3 points..............that ranks right up there as the most overvalued team ever, with the 2007 Pats, another great passing team that set offensive records but failed to win the SB and went 0-3 ATS in the playoffs.

11. Saints -5.26

10.  Pats-3.93

9.  KC -3.06

8. Bengals - 2.45

7. Colts -2.4

6. Packers -.76

And The Most Undervalued Team is.......................................

1. Eagles +4.58

2. Seahawks +2.71

3. 9ers +1.54

4. SD +.58

5. Panthers +.55

And The Largest Value Mismatch is........................................

Eagles over Saints by 9.84 value pts.

Anyway you slice it, under both methods, using stats differently the Eagles are the play.

We'll track both methods seperately as they will have different plays throughout the playoffs.

Another best bet play on the Eagles for this method as well.

Best of Luck.............................. to everyone in this season's playoffs and enjoy all the great games to come....................................................

I see Bengals as a possible SB team, but I think they need to beat SD first, because they are playing on a high unsustainable level.

The best thing for Cincy would be to win a close game and not cover, this would be nice for next week, I think they'd beat the Pats SU.

But this SD game may be a bit harder than people think, I'm not taking any action but I'm very aware of how Cincy is playing on a unsustainable level.

GGGRRRRRRRR.................................Always nice to get off to a good start, but we''l battle back this week and I'm confident we'll do it.

The Cooper dropped pass on 3rd down was huge, he was wide open with alot of room to run.

Instead, the Eagles go 3 and out, punt and give the Saints good field position and they march down for a 20-7 lead.

Even with that the Eagles come back and take the lead, but that dropped pass and missing a 48 yd FG with the Saints having 1 FG just go inside the upright was to much for the Eagles to overcome.

Playoffs to Date --- 0-1 ATS, lost 11 units

Andrew Luck the incredible come-back machine....................................

Wow, Luck has been incredible his 1st 2 years with come-back wins, and he seems to do it with teams that are not that great.

Although this makes for great stories it seldom makes for SB Champs.

According to both power ratings the Colts were out-played and should of lost by 9.59 pts and 10.85 pts.

Teams who's play on the field is 8.5 pts or  worse then the final score are 18-35 ATS the following week this season.

The Colts could have been a nice fade but the Pats are coming off the same thing in their final regular season game. Something I'll be watching closely for the conference final  game.

Of the many teams from the wild card round to make and win the SB since the current trend began in 1997, just 1 TEAM, 1999 Titans who pulled off  the music city miracle have been out-played in the wild card game and gone on to the SB.

Does not bode well for the Colts.

That magical Team from the Wild Card Round............................................

The prevailing trend in todays NFL playoffs has been the hot team from the wild card round making and winning the SB.

Using common denominators of such teams, last season I warned about the Ravens who had that magical look....................................

Last season I called-out the Ravens prior to the conference final VS Pats, not sure if it's possible to do it this early, but the team that's  beginning to get that magical look is ........................... the Super Chargers

Chargers won the QBPR by a whopping 51.8 pts. While the remaining 3 winners aallll were out-played in the key indicator.

Last season Flacco was the highest rated playoff QB, it's Rivers after 1st round.

According to the 2 sets of power ratings the Chargers out-played the Bengals and should of won by 24.75 pts and 25.59 pts.

The Chargers are playing 7.75 pts and 8.59 pts better than the final score of the game.

Teams playing 8.5 better than the final score are 30-24 ATS the following week this season.

Playoffs to Date --- 0-1 ATS, lost 11 units

Divisional game lines.................................................

Seattle -12.71 over Saints

Denver -10.54 over SD

Pats -4.85 over Colts

Panthers -.31 over 9ers

Interesting, had you gotten the best available lines, my lines went 3-1 in all games with leans, only losing the largest diff on Eagles.

But my lines lost every game SU, I expect that to bounce back this week.

No plays this week at this point, doesn't look like we'll get to a 6 pt diff in any game unless we see a big line movement which isn't likly.

Playoffs to Date --- 0-1 ATS, lost 11 units...............

We'll look to bounce back this week...............................

Divisional Round Game Lines.......................................

Seattle -15.6 over Saints

Denver -3 over SD

Pats -4.65 over Colts

Panthers -1.89 over 9ers

2 plays this week with a 6 pt diff at this point, Seattle and SD.

I'll look to get SD +10 and Seattle -7, if the lines move before game time to be less than a 6 pt diff I'll buy the other side back.

The Monster that is the Seattle Seahawks.........................

The Seahawks are one of the most dominate teams in NFL history in the most important stat which has the highest correlation to victory and the highest predictive value going forward.

QBPR (QUARTERBACK PASSER RATING)........................ the team that wins this battle wins roughly 80% of all games.

Seahawks are no.1 this season with a QBPR differential of 38.97.

The 10th best team in the SB era beginning in 1966 was 40.9.

The Seahawks rank 9th since 1978 the start of the current 16 game schedule and the beginning of the passing era when the league changed the rules to open-up the passing game to improve scoring.

Of the previous top 13 teams all of which finished 36.3 or better, 10 went to the SB (76.9%).

2 teams played each other in the SB, of the remaing 11 teams, 7 won the SB (63.6%).

Of the 10 teams that made the SB, since 2 played each other, so of the remaing 8 teams which made the SB, 7 won the SB, the only losing team which made the SB was 2007 Pats who lost on a miracle helmet catch.

These top 13 teams went 11-2 (84.6%)  and 9-3-1 ATS in their opening playoff games, with all 11 teams winning by double digits with the ave win by just over 19 pts per game.

Don't sleep on this oppurtunity to back a monster this postseason.............................................................