Is this a bad spot for the Patriots?

2nd road game in 3 weeks.

Jags, 2nd home game in 3 weeks.

A bit of travel for the Pats going to Seattle, now to Duval County.

If memory serves true, the Patriots always had a tough time playing in Miami early in the year where the heat and humidity would take a toll. Ofcourse the Dolphins played that card well, making the road team stay on the sun side of the sidelines, and the Dolphins always wear white in these games. Making the road team wear their dark uni's.

What's the weather going to be in Jacksonville on Sunday?

The Patriots had a particularly tough time against the Seahawks defense, one of, if not thee best defense in the nfl. Specifically Mike McDonald's cover 6 vs Drake Maye "could" be the young Qb's kryptonite. He ran a bunch of it in the SB, then again in week 1. For those who don't know what cover 6 is, it's simply a split coverage. Cover 4 on one side of the field, and cover 2 on the other. McDonald disguises it well.

Has the league taken notice? It's a copycat league. I still need to watch the game vs Pitt to see what coverages they ran vs Maye. He was 14/22 for 208 yards, no td's, 1 int, and sacked 3 times. Worse yet, only 6 first downs via the pass, and 4 of 12 on 3rd down. That's b2b poor performances after an amazing 2025 season where I could argue that he played the QB position better than anyone last year.

The Jags are the #5 defense in the league according to dvoa. Another tough defense for the Patriots to face 3 weeks in a row.

Seattle #2 per dvoa. Pitt #1 believe it or not.

The Patriots handled the Steelers last week. Especially with the final score. But it was more of the Steelers inept offense than their defensive effort.

Elijah Ponder had a scoop fumble recovery for a td in that game. Arod could not get away from any pass rush. The Patriots offense scored 13 points.

The Steelers boast the #31 ranked offense in the nfl. The Jags are #5. A stark contrast, and much better QB mobility. Trevor and company will surely want to bounce back after a less than desirable effort in the elevation of Denver last week.

The Jaguars seem to have a straight road to winning their division as everyone in the afc south is winless. 

The Patriots need to keep lockstep with the Bills if they want a chance at the afc north.

What do you guys think?

I think yea, if I had to play it I'd go Jags. I had them as a 3.5 pt fav so at 2.5 it looks good. Big regression year for the Pats

Last year the Patriots went 2-0 ATS before Buffalo. The Pats play Buffalo on 4 October. Here are those games LY under Vrabel. Both games at home.

28 Sep Carolina 42-13  W  SU and ATS  -5.5

1 Dec  NYG  33-15  W  SU and ATS  -7

@sundance

 Those were ass whoopings. But the Panthers and Giants were god awful last year.

I saw 1/2 of PITT game Sunday and I concur…Pitt offense lacks explosiveness… QB had little time in pocket… there no playmakers …  fading Pitt is a good idea.. New Englandvwas just above avg. 

Great research... I see Jags with the edge especially with BUFF on deck for NE... in those previous 2 games mentioned before facing BUFF, NE was favored against teams struggling late in the year. 

Only concern -- does it look too easy? Line might be low based on public perception of Patriots.

BOL in Week 3! 

I agree sac. A huge step up in class for the Pats playing Jacksonville this Sunday with Buffalo on deck.

@undermysac

 Love your breakdowns man  

Considering the break down and all the issues Patriots have had so far AJ brown going down..right guard Mike Onwenu breaking his ankle and having Bills on deck.. definitely Jags or nothing for me.. I just can’t trust Trevor Lawrence in the rain.. it’s haunted me..which team turns the ball over less.. wouldn’t be surprised if the line goes up another .5

Good Luck this week 

I will be doing all I can to get a good +3.5 number.  

For now I have a good O45 -105.

This is a stay away game for me. I keep going back & forth between these two teams.

Drake Maye will have to step up his game...I do believe he is capable of doing so. I'm with Raider that if I can get the 3' for -112 I kinda like'm, nothing easy here though. 

Don't get me wrong, the stuff you posted proves that the Pats haven't looked ahead to Buffalo in the past, and most likely won't be come Sunday. It's only week 3, I think that every team is taking it one week at a time currently. 

As far as the # goes, 3 is as fair as it can get here imo.

The Jags are for the most part 1.5 pts better than the Pats. HFA isn't what it used to be(old school 3 points). Today the books give somewhere from 1 to 1.5 points. Jeff Sagarin currently gives 2.03 points for home field, the highest you'll see anywhere.

@ChOmP

 Thanks for the post. The Jaguars are definitely healthier than the Patriots right now.

https://www.si.com/nfl/patriots/onsi/patriots-get-several-major-injury-updates-heading-into-week-3

Since the playoffs last year, the Patriots offense has averaged 13.83 ppg. This is a 6 game span, including the SB.

Since the Jaguars bye week in 2025, their offense at home has averaged 34.83 ppg. This is a 6 game span.

Their lowest points scored was 24 against the Bills in the wild card game.

@undermysac

 I agree w/ this completely. Jags comfortably IMO. Just not sure Maye can avoid the big turnover, either. 

@undermysac

 I don't think the 2nd road game in two weeks is relevant in this case, since the 1st road game was 2 and a half weeks ago. I noticed that all 4 teams that played on Wednesday or Thursday in Week 1 all won handily in Week 2. And the 2 teams that played on Monday in Week 1 went 1-1 ATS in Week 2 on a short week. 

3rd game of the season is a bad spot?

Imo it sounds like you are trying to talk yourself into a bet on the jags and reaching in several areas. I try to catch myself when i do that. End of the day the pats have been money on the road as a dog with vrabel/maye. Trevor is just as likely to have a bad day throwing picks. You won't see +3.5 and you should probably still be taking +3 here. 

@papsmear

 Not at all.

Everything I wrote are all real things that came to mind.

Fwiw, last year I made more $ off of the Pats than any other team. I'm seeing some problems for them this week.

In a week to week league when it comes to public perception, a team off a loss is favored, a team off a convincing win is a dog. That was my starting point in looking into this game.

I guess you won't be looking for any bad spots for any team, on the entire card.

You'll save yourself  some time I suppose 

Does anyone have a trend for Super Bowl losers the following season on the road as dogs and favs?

Over the last 15 years, the Patriots are 7-12 su, and 6-13 ats playing in the state of Florida