Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring.
Last 4 games...
Texans - was more about defenses looking better than reality because of the weather challenges facing both offenses. Chargers - nothing to play for Dolphins - nothing to play for Jets - nothing to play
Only reasonable to think their numbers would increase during a stretch like this, nothing impressive about it at all.
It's actually quite disturbing that their season numbers aren't better considering the played the easiest schedule.
1
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring.
Last 4 games...
Texans - was more about defenses looking better than reality because of the weather challenges facing both offenses. Chargers - nothing to play for Dolphins - nothing to play for Jets - nothing to play
Only reasonable to think their numbers would increase during a stretch like this, nothing impressive about it at all.
It's actually quite disturbing that their season numbers aren't better considering the played the easiest schedule.
@SportsIntuition At what point are people going to throw the "pats played an easy schedule" argument in the trash? I mean at some point they won't cover, or even lose, and it may be this weekend. Who knows. But when and if that happens, is that when one says "haha, gotcha, the Patriots suck they played an easy schedule I knew it!" The Patriots are 13-5-1 ats this year. Fading them is bound to work at some point I reckon.
Sometimes you have to close your eyes and hold your breath and get under the sack ladies.
1
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@SportsIntuition At what point are people going to throw the "pats played an easy schedule" argument in the trash? I mean at some point they won't cover, or even lose, and it may be this weekend. Who knows. But when and if that happens, is that when one says "haha, gotcha, the Patriots suck they played an easy schedule I knew it!" The Patriots are 13-5-1 ats this year. Fading them is bound to work at some point I reckon.
Sometimes you have to close your eyes and hold your breath and get under the sack ladies.
And it's hard to ignore the "easy schedule" when they only played 2 teams (Bills twice) with winning schedules during the regular season and went 1-2 which included losing at home to the Steelers. This means that during the regular season they only won ONE GAME against a team with a winning record!
1
@undermysac
Just pointing to the facts.
And it's hard to ignore the "easy schedule" when they only played 2 teams (Bills twice) with winning schedules during the regular season and went 1-2 which included losing at home to the Steelers. This means that during the regular season they only won ONE GAME against a team with a winning record!
That's fair. The Broncos are much better than what the Patriots faced in the regular season. The Broncos went 4-3 vs teams above .500 in the regular season. 5-3 if you count the Bills win last week.
Although, do we not put any stock in the Patriots playoff wins vs the 11-6 Chargers, and the 13-5 Texans?
FWIW:
The Patriots and Broncos finished with the same exact record in the regular season(14-3).
Pythagorean wins had the Pats at 12.5 wins, 4.5 losses.
Pyth wins had the Broncos at 11 wins, 6 losses.
It's gonna be a really interesting game. So much riding on Stidham. We really don't know what we are going to see.
1
@SportsIntuition
That's fair. The Broncos are much better than what the Patriots faced in the regular season. The Broncos went 4-3 vs teams above .500 in the regular season. 5-3 if you count the Bills win last week.
Although, do we not put any stock in the Patriots playoff wins vs the 11-6 Chargers, and the 13-5 Texans?
FWIW:
The Patriots and Broncos finished with the same exact record in the regular season(14-3).
Pythagorean wins had the Pats at 12.5 wins, 4.5 losses.
Pyth wins had the Broncos at 11 wins, 6 losses.
It's gonna be a really interesting game. So much riding on Stidham. We really don't know what we are going to see.
@SportsIntuition That's fair. The Broncos are much better than what the Patriots faced in the regular season. The Broncos went 4-3 vs teams above .500 in the regular season. 5-3 if you count the Bills win last week. Although, do we not put any stock in the Patriots playoff wins vs the 11-6 Chargers, and the 13-5 Texans? FWIW: The Patriots and Broncos finished with the same exact record in the regular season(14-3). Pythagorean wins had the Pats at 12.5 wins, 4.5 losses. Pyth wins had the Broncos at 11 wins, 6 losses. It's gonna be a really interesting game. So much riding on Stidham. We really don't know what we are going to see.
We are going to see a QB that hasnt really played in a longtime, and wasn't very good when he did
1
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@SportsIntuition That's fair. The Broncos are much better than what the Patriots faced in the regular season. The Broncos went 4-3 vs teams above .500 in the regular season. 5-3 if you count the Bills win last week. Although, do we not put any stock in the Patriots playoff wins vs the 11-6 Chargers, and the 13-5 Texans? FWIW: The Patriots and Broncos finished with the same exact record in the regular season(14-3). Pythagorean wins had the Pats at 12.5 wins, 4.5 losses. Pyth wins had the Broncos at 11 wins, 6 losses. It's gonna be a really interesting game. So much riding on Stidham. We really don't know what we are going to see.
We are going to see a QB that hasnt really played in a longtime, and wasn't very good when he did
There’s a chance for the broncos in which Maye has been sacked close to 50 times this season in spite of playing 10 games against defenses in the bottom 12 in the entire NFL teams IF by some chance Denver can stop the run on first and second downs, and force a bunch of 3rd and longs then their pass rush could make the difference in the game and therefore keep it close. But on the other side of this if the Broncos give up a bunch of 6-7 yard runs on first down like they did against the Bills.. then Denver is definitely going to be doomed for an undesirable outcome.
@NutinButtLove
Doesn't Maye also lead the NFL in fumbles? I think i heard that last week.
DEN still has to score though Don't they?. Patriots havs a top 10 defense, and one of the best run defenses in the league. Which means the broncos are going have to throw. So who’s to say Stidham doesn’t start throwing INTs to match Maye’s fumbles?
When I win Money it's my money and NOT house money
1
@justliketoplay
There’s a chance for the broncos in which Maye has been sacked close to 50 times this season in spite of playing 10 games against defenses in the bottom 12 in the entire NFL teams IF by some chance Denver can stop the run on first and second downs, and force a bunch of 3rd and longs then their pass rush could make the difference in the game and therefore keep it close. But on the other side of this if the Broncos give up a bunch of 6-7 yard runs on first down like they did against the Bills.. then Denver is definitely going to be doomed for an undesirable outcome.
@NutinButtLove
Doesn't Maye also lead the NFL in fumbles? I think i heard that last week.
DEN still has to score though Don't they?. Patriots havs a top 10 defense, and one of the best run defenses in the league. Which means the broncos are going have to throw. So who’s to say Stidham doesn’t start throwing INTs to match Maye’s fumbles?
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: @SportsIntuition That's fair. The Broncos are much better than what the Patriots faced in the regular season. The Broncos went 4-3 vs teams above .500 in the regular season. 5-3 if you count the Bills win last week. Although, do we not put any stock in the Patriots playoff wins vs the 11-6 Chargers, and the 13-5 Texans? FWIW: The Patriots and Broncos finished with the same exact record in the regular season(14-3). Pythagorean wins had the Pats at 12.5 wins, 4.5 losses. Pyth wins had the Broncos at 11 wins, 6 losses. It's gonna be a really interesting game. So much riding on Stidham. We really don't know what we are going to see. We are going to see a QB that hasnt really played in a longtime, and wasn't very good when he did
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: @SportsIntuition That's fair. The Broncos are much better than what the Patriots faced in the regular season. The Broncos went 4-3 vs teams above .500 in the regular season. 5-3 if you count the Bills win last week. Although, do we not put any stock in the Patriots playoff wins vs the 11-6 Chargers, and the 13-5 Texans? FWIW: The Patriots and Broncos finished with the same exact record in the regular season(14-3). Pythagorean wins had the Pats at 12.5 wins, 4.5 losses. Pyth wins had the Broncos at 11 wins, 6 losses. It's gonna be a really interesting game. So much riding on Stidham. We really don't know what we are going to see. We are going to see a QB that hasnt really played in a longtime, and wasn't very good when he did
Those Broncos pass catchers will be very happy receiving Stidhams soft feathered passes instead of Bo's zingers..go back and watch Stidham in preseason...Broncos offense was much much better than when Bo played Sadly
HC Sean Payton is smart....he won't even use all he's got which I'm sure he's saving for The Big Game on February 8th.. Stidham can light it up if need be....Watch....
Just listen to HC Sean Payton..Stidham with our defense, WILL be ready....
1
Those Broncos pass catchers will be very happy receiving Stidhams soft feathered passes instead of Bo's zingers..go back and watch Stidham in preseason...Broncos offense was much much better than when Bo played Sadly
HC Sean Payton is smart....he won't even use all he's got which I'm sure he's saving for The Big Game on February 8th.. Stidham can light it up if need be....Watch....
Just listen to HC Sean Payton..Stidham with our defense, WILL be ready....
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring. Last 4 games... Texans - was more about defenses looking better than reality because of the weather challenges facing both offenses.Chargers - nothing to play forDolphins - nothing to play forJets - nothing to playOnly reasonable to think their numbers would increase during a stretch like this, nothing impressive about it at all.It's actually quite disturbing that their season numbers aren't better considering the played the easiest schedule.
Chargers - nothing to play for? Are you drunk or high? It was a playoff game!
0
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac: Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring. Last 4 games... Texans - was more about defenses looking better than reality because of the weather challenges facing both offenses.Chargers - nothing to play forDolphins - nothing to play forJets - nothing to playOnly reasonable to think their numbers would increase during a stretch like this, nothing impressive about it at all.It's actually quite disturbing that their season numbers aren't better considering the played the easiest schedule.
Chargers - nothing to play for? Are you drunk or high? It was a playoff game!
The Broncos gave up 30 to Josh Allen. The Patriots beat up on the two worse offensive lines in the league. The game is won in the trenches. Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud are not bad QBs. They did not play well (CJ played abysmal) but everyone should take a look at their O-line play.
0
@justliketoplay
The Broncos gave up 30 to Josh Allen. The Patriots beat up on the two worse offensive lines in the league. The game is won in the trenches. Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud are not bad QBs. They did not play well (CJ played abysmal) but everyone should take a look at their O-line play.
Jarrett Stidham has appeared in 20 games, making four starts, and holds a 1–3 record as a starter. While he is praised for having an aggressive vertical passing streak, his play has been criticized for lacking qualities that Bo Nix possesses, including effective sack avoidance including running the ball, poise under pressure, ball security, and consistency.
Those qualities led Denver to rely heavily on Bo Nix. With Stidham now leading the offense, the Broncos must adjust their approach to better suit his skill set by leaning into vertical passing concepts, quarterback screens, increased check-downs, and a stronger running emphasis to limit his weaknesses....
AND the Patriots are fully aware of all of this.
The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
0
Jarrett Stidham has appeared in 20 games, making four starts, and holds a 1–3 record as a starter. While he is praised for having an aggressive vertical passing streak, his play has been criticized for lacking qualities that Bo Nix possesses, including effective sack avoidance including running the ball, poise under pressure, ball security, and consistency.
Those qualities led Denver to rely heavily on Bo Nix. With Stidham now leading the offense, the Broncos must adjust their approach to better suit his skill set by leaning into vertical passing concepts, quarterback screens, increased check-downs, and a stronger running emphasis to limit his weaknesses....
No, C.J. Stroud played very poorly in that game. The Texans likely would have won if the backup quarterback had played. I was very high on Stroud going into that matchup, but that performance raised serious concerns about his mental approach. He did not appear mentally composed.
The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
0
@Ih8coldweather
No, C.J. Stroud played very poorly in that game. The Texans likely would have won if the backup quarterback had played. I was very high on Stroud going into that matchup, but that performance raised serious concerns about his mental approach. He did not appear mentally composed.
If the NFL really is a “No Fix League,” then the Patriots are the right side—but believing that might also land you in the “No Fund League.”
Trusting a known bad quarterback in a conference championship game is scary. This isn’t like taking Carson Beck over Fernando Mendoza in a college title game. By comparison, grabbing Miami +7.5 against Indiana was actually a steal.
The first and greatest victory is to conquer self
0
If the NFL really is a “No Fix League,” then the Patriots are the right side—but believing that might also land you in the “No Fund League.”
Trusting a known bad quarterback in a conference championship game is scary. This isn’t like taking Carson Beck over Fernando Mendoza in a college title game. By comparison, grabbing Miami +7.5 against Indiana was actually a steal.
Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring.
Excellent post! Very informative and convincing. The Pats have been crushing teams. They've won 9 games by more than 8 points. Denver is 12-1 in one score games. A lot of luck going on there.. The Broncos could easily have 2 or 3 more losses. NE is the better team, even with Nix.
The Patriots have outgained their opponents 15 games in a row!
I don't care about road favs being 0-9 in conf championship games. How many of those QBs were making their first start with a team in a conference championship game? Pats roll.
Good luck sac
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
Has anyone noticed that the Patriots down the stretch have vastly improved their defensive play? 3rd in epa per play, 4th in dropback epa, and 7th in rush epa in their last 4 games? In terms of road defense, the Pats have allowed 19.5 ppg this year, 4th best in the league. Only the Broncos, Texans and Seahawks have allowed less otr. It's gonna be a tough task for a QB who hasn't played in forever. If Sean Payton deploys the run early and often(as he should), the Pats in their last 3 games have allowed 2.9 yards per rush in their last 3 games. Nose tackle Khyris Tonga and LB Robert Spillane are healthy and playing again. They make a difference. To make matters worse, the Pats have allowed 4.9 yards per pass, and a 22.1% redzone scoring percentage over this span. For the strength of schedule argument, one that's followed the Pats all year long, last week's matchup vs the Texans was the #32 sos vs the #1 sos. The Broncos sos is #25. The spread is probably 1.5 to 2 points to high in this game. So I get it, there's value on the Broncos here. I just couldn't back them unless I truly believed that they could win the game outright, and I have a hard time seeing it right now. Especially when the biggest question mark in the game rests upon the QB position. Someone could probably talk me into the under. Vrabel vs Payton in this kind of game screams low scoring.
Excellent post! Very informative and convincing. The Pats have been crushing teams. They've won 9 games by more than 8 points. Denver is 12-1 in one score games. A lot of luck going on there.. The Broncos could easily have 2 or 3 more losses. NE is the better team, even with Nix.
The Patriots have outgained their opponents 15 games in a row!
I don't care about road favs being 0-9 in conf championship games. How many of those QBs were making their first start with a team in a conference championship game? Pats roll.
Jarret Stidham will be just fine the game is and will be decided on the field no matter what the narratives are negatively said about him here . . . . Next (QB) man up mentality we’ll see this will be a team effort game not based on just the back up QB only
What do you call an Eternal Optimist? An accordion player with a beeper!
0
@BiaSaigon
Jarret Stidham will be just fine the game is and will be decided on the field no matter what the narratives are negatively said about him here . . . . Next (QB) man up mentality we’ll see this will be a team effort game not based on just the back up QB only
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.