Posted:
#51
ill be following you on every pick this year 
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Interesting take on how to bet NFL
this is ridiculous
Posted:
#54
Decided to separate 65% trend plays and personal program % plays to keep a better track record
2-0 (65% trend plays) 
+4000
+40001-0 (program% plays) +1000
+1000NFL total = +5000
+5000Bears @ Cowboys - Cowboys (65% chance to win)
Pick Bears +7
The Cowboys are my team but I gotta fade my boys and go with the system...public all over Cowboys after bears horrible performance Monday night. Gruden repeated over and over bears defense redzone bend but don't break. Prescott has not thrown a redzone touchdown yet. I can see Cowboys struggling at the redzone putting up field goals. Another great value play at +7 like the Browns game last week. Way to much points for a public team favored to win by only 65%
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Posted:
#55
NFL Week 3
Texans @ Patriots - Patriots (74% chance to win)
Pick- Patriots pk $1000 (program% play)
Program has patriots to win by 74% and they are at a pickem? Even Vegas are lost on the line opening the pats as dogs. Indication that Vegas had no clue on what the line should be with jimmys injury. Line stood out to me because I compared the same exact percentages of other games this week.
Lions @ Packers - Packers (74% chance to win) Packers -8
Redskins @ Giants - Giants (74% chance to win) Giants -4.5
Patriots 74% chance at a pickem?
Vegas razor sharp on packers and Giants lines
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Posted:
#57
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
NFL Week 3
NFL Week 3
Texans @ Patriots - Patriots (74% chance to win)
Pick- Patriots pk $1000 (program% play)
Program has patriots to win by 74% and they are at a pickem? Even Vegas are lost on the line opening the pats as dogs. Indication that Vegas had no clue on what the line should be with jimmys injury. Line stood out to me because I compared the same exact percentages of other games this week.
Lions @ Packers - Packers (74% chance to win) Packers -8
Redskins @ Giants - Giants (74% chance to win) Giants -4.5
Patriots 74% chance at a pickem?
Vegas razor sharp on packers and Giants lines
I'm not sure how you're getting Patriots as 74% chance of winning with a 3rd string QB
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Posted:
#58
Quote Originally Posted by Debo71:
I'm not sure how you're getting Patriots as 74% chance of winning with a 3rd string QB
I input the stats of an average QB in the NFL as I can only logically assume the 3rd string QB will play average. The input of average NFL average QB play combined with team stats equates to patriots winning by 74%. Obviously if Brady was starting the percentage would be higher at around +80% and above because Brady at QB would be at above NFL average baseline. In that case Vegas would have a sharp line but clearly that's not the situation with this matchup.
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Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by AFNfootballnerd:
A personal program I created when I first joined covers a few years ago. It's a program that compiles teams pure stats only or should I say a statistical model. I then input the data to both teams that are matched to play against each other. The model takes into account 140 data points to compute the probability outcome of that matchup.
I wanted to create the program because all other program models on the net predict the score of the game. For example, Bing program had final score Ravens 31 Browns 17. Bing a MICROSOFT model....way to pick the score there 
. System has nothing to do with wagering percentages from the Internet. I found a trend that any team that lands on 65% to win the game I simply fade that team. My theory based off this trend is that stats wise the 65% team is slightly better but in the NFL it's literally any given Sunday...so you have a team you wager on a 35% chance to straight up win. Now if you take into account the spread the chance is even better if your getting points. The NFL 65% is considered 55% given how anything can change so fast such as a fumble interception etc...so technically it's a 45% chance but my model system does overvalue a lot of data points that I'm too lazy to change
. System has nothing to do with wagering percentages from the Internet. I found a trend that any team that lands on 65% to win the game I simply fade that team. My theory based off this trend is that stats wise the 65% team is slightly better but in the NFL it's literally any given Sunday...so you have a team you wager on a 35% chance to straight up win. Now if you take into account the spread the chance is even better if your getting points. The NFL 65% is considered 55% given how anything can change so fast such as a fumble interception etc...so technically it's a 45% chance but my model system does overvalue a lot of data points that I'm too lazy to changeI'm intrigue by your system plays. So since it's a personal program you created, it's not made available to the public, it's not like we can goto a website and look at which team has a 65% chance to win the game.
People started getting all confused and mentioned websites like Vegas Insider, started talking about consensus etc.
Will tail you on the Bears play - let's see what happens...
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Posted:
#65
Quote Originally Posted by BallingLikeNE:
AFNfootballnerd will you be posting yours plays in this thread the rest of the season? Anytime the 65% rule kicks in?
AFNfootballnerd will you be posting yours plays in this thread the rest of the season? Anytime the 65% rule kicks in?
If so, how far advance do you usually post? Mid week?
Yes...the thread was created to post the 65% trend which is very selective of course throughout the season. I started adding personal program plays such as the Eagles and patriots to not confuse for tracking purposes. The personal program plays are plays that stand out through analyzing the percentages such as the Eagles earlier and the patriots this Thursday. In short its my main tool for capping
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