Info regarding the Bears

None of the Bears starting linebackers have practiced this week. Check reports today.

Prop players take a look at the Steeler's RB offers.

The total sits at 45.5 

Weather will be beautiful, 46 at kickoff, high of 49. Minimal wind 4 to 6mph

@undermysac

 Think Pittsburgh is better off with Rudolph or an injured Rodgers?

good tip 

Bears CB Jaylon Johnson had a full practice and may return

steelers TE Darnell Washington is 25+ receiving yds +107 @DK 

https://www.instagram.com/p/DRSzrkTAGEn/?igsh=ZncxYW95eGNudGU2

Oh wow, all 3 of them officially ruled out now...Pitt indeed. I already picked Pitt in my spread pickem contest. Could even become a play. At the least Pitt RB over rush yds could be good. I want to see a line for Gainwell though bc of Warren coming off injury. I worry how much action he'll actually get. A low line on Gainwell I think would be the best way to attack it. 

Nice find 

No clue really. Aaron Rodgers hasn't exactly lit the world on fire. He's 12th in qbr, 17th in comp %, 19th in NYPP at 6.0 yards. 23rd in adjusted epa per play.

I'm questioning if he can even take a snap from under center with his left wrist being broke. The left hand is the bottom hand on the snap for a right handed QB, and that hand takes the brunt of the force on the center to qb exchange. If he plays will they use more shotgun?

Ball security could even be an issue on hand offs to the right. You can't give the RB the ball with your right hand on runs to the right.

In a game where you really want to exploit the Bears backup LB's, maybe Mason Rudolph would be a safer option in that regard. I suspect that the Bears will be using a lot of Nickel out of pure necessity. CJ Garner Johnson is a DB that likes to play close to the line of scrimmage. He's been known to assume that hybrid safety/LB role in the past.

The poster above who suggested the TE prop, I'll be fully on board with that if Rodgers does start. He's been throwing in that 4 to 8 yard zone a lot all year long. He's 31st out of 33 qb's in Air Yards this year averaging 6.1 per pass.

Some conflicting trends for you guys here.

The Steelers haven't beaten the Bears in Chicago since 1995. And are 1-12 all time playing in Chicago.

Aaron Rodgers is 24-5 all time vs the Bears.

@undermysac

 If I was going to bet Pitt I would much rather Rudolph be playing. I really want nothing to do with them if its Rodgers. 

The Bears ran Nickel Defense on 100% of the Vikings snaps last week.

Tremaine Edmunds had 9 tackles. Noah Sewell had 10 tackles. That's 19 of the Bears total 58 tackles in the game, including special teams tackles.

Another thing to consider is that Dennis Allen has blitzed 27.9% of the time, 9th highest in the league. I'm not sure if he stays the coarse with LB blitzing this week or not.

Here's a stat that does not marry well with the LB injury situation for the Bears. The Bears D line gives up 1.9 yards before contact per RB rush. That's tied for dead last along with the Giants. The Bears D line has a 15% rush stuff rate. 5th worst in the nfl.

"Cluster injuries" is one of the worst things you can hear if you plan on backing a team.

We'll see if Arthur Smith is smart enough to exploit this area with his gameplan. Personally I think he's sort of a dumb ass.

Bet carefully and good luck 

@undermysac

 Aaron Rodgers is 24-5 all time vs the Bears.

This is the most crucial stat right here and most likely the difference maker for Pittsburgh winning this take outright 

I am not a fan of Rodgers by no means but this man knows the Chicago Bears and I think it .vwill show come Sunday afternoon.

Good stuff Sac thanks 

Bears also have a negative point differential. 7-3 but given up more points than scored and like you said three starting linebackers out for Bears. Not a fan of Steelers this year but Steelers are the play on Sunday. 

Reading the Steelers injury reports, Aaron Rodgers was limited on Thursday and Friday. And as I suspected took all his snaps from the shotgun. 

Here's a video from the talking heads. 

https://youtu.be/KmnCArEVKFI?si=PAEa28b0RoflRffR

Hard to believe "Are Steelers better off with Aaron Rodgers or Rudolph?" is even a question.  

Rodgers minority ownership stake in the Bears would be a bet since he owns them. Has anyone ever seen Rudolph do anything worthy of million$?

No bet if no Rodgers. Rodgers with Metcalf and Washington could work.

Hard to believe "Are Steelers better off with Aaron Rodgers or Rudolph?" is even a question.  

Rodgers minority ownership stake in the Bears would be a bet since he owns them. Has anyone ever seen Rudolph do anything worthy of million$?

No bet if no Rodgers. Rodgers with Metcalf and Washington could work. NO RODGERS NO BET.

true, but if you take away the first two games, they have a pos point differential.   In the last 8 games the bears are 7-1 SU & 6-2 ATS.    There are similarities between them and the Seahawks…..both have good young head coaches who are turning their teams into winners.    I am careful about going against either team right now.

a couple more fun facts about the bears, courtesy of Zoe Grossman:

Chicago’s offense has totaled 82 big plays (passes of 20-plus yards and rushes of 10-plus yards) this season, ranking No. 1 in the NFL. They have 28 in the fourth quarter this season, also the most in the NFL.

BIG PLAYS, NFL 2025
1. Chicago Bears 82
2. Buffalo Bills 77
3. New England Patriots 69

In the fourth quarter, the Bears are averaging 104.7 net yards offensively, the third-most in the NFL.

4TH QUARTER NET YARD AVG., NFL, 2025
1. Denver Broncos 110.0
2. Buffalo Bills 106.9
3. Chicago Bears 104.7

Caleb Williams registered his fifth fourth-quarter comeback this season, the most by any player in the NFL in 2025 and the most in a single season by any Bears quarterback in franchise history. Jay Cutler had four in both the 2010 and 2015 seasons.

Williams’ 19 career games without throwing an interception are the most by any quarterback over the last two seasons through the early afternoon slate of Week 11 games. Williams has amassed six fourth-quarter comebacks over his last 11 outings, posting an 8-3 record.

4TH QUARTER COMEBACKS, NFL, 2025
1. Chi. QB Caleb Williams 5 
2. T.B. QB Baker Mayfield 4 
Den. QB Bo Nix 4 
4. G.B. QB Jordan Love 3 

@Yanasaur

 16’ on Gainwell

Thx for this...where do you find those stats?...................Good Luck!

Based on all this info regarding the Bears explosiveness and their linebacker injuries on Steelers game plan has to be keep away. Underneath passes to TE and screen passes to backs to take advantage of that soft middle, in addition to any running game they can stitch together to keep the ball away from the Bears offense. Put points on the board and bleed the clock is the name of the game, especially if the gimpy Rodgers is the QB. 

@jowchoo

 I forget the site, I just found that info when searching for “bears injuries”

YES!!!

@Biscuit

Good stuff 

@begginerboy

Even if the Steelers win time of possession and successfully play keep away, I'm having a tough time seeing this game go under the total. When I started the thread it was 45.5, today it's 46.

I rarely like overs, this one I can get on board with. Unless I'm missing something. 

Considering the injury, and if they are relegated to only using shotgun, then yes Rudolph feels like the better option. 

The Bears have really good DB's and depth at the position. They lead the league in interceptions. Why go into shotgun and attack them when all the linebackers are out?

But it wouldn't surprise me one bit. If you have  watched any Arthur Smith offenses over the years, they're not too good.

I'm leaning towards this avenue as well, for a couple of reasons. 

1. If Mason is declared the starter, the line will surely move a half point to 1 point north. If Rodgers is declared the starter, it will move the opposite way.

2. I just checked the Steelers formation usage #'s. They have used 3 or more WR formations only 33.2% of the time. Lowest of any team. They have used multiple TE formations 56.4% of the time. Tops in the league. 

This right here is exactly where they want to stay against a Nickel defense. I honestly don't think that the Bears have the personal to run a 4-3. They have only 3 linebackers listed on their depth chart for this game. Rookie Ruben Hyppolite, Amen Ogbongbemiga, and Demarco Jackson.

https://dawindycity.com/bears-lb-injuries-could-thrust-forgotten-vet-big-week-12-role-01kakzsgpj0g

If Mason Rudolph is the starter, there's no reason for Arthur Smith to change the formations that he's been using all year.

If it's Aaron Rodgers, it's looking like shotgun only. I suppose you could still run double TE's from the shotgun how the Colts did with Peyton Manning for years. I have just not seen that from Pitt or Rodgers much at all, and it's no time to re invent an offense in week 12.

If Rodgers is a go my bet will be on the Bears.

If it's Mason I'll be inclined to bet on the Steelers.

I think that the over is a good bet as well.

I looked up taking away those 1st 2 games.

After that Bears won by 1 pt, 1 pt, 2 pts , 4 pts and 5 pts

5 of those 7 wins were in very close games that is not repeatable to continue to win these close games and the opps were not good.