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Indy is clearly the more talented. So why bet Jags tonight?

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Posted: #26
And Mr Quija our Lions are just looking good right now buddy!
 
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Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by Jose_Reyes:

Tough spot for Indy. Rookie QB. Traveling on a short week. Road favorite, in the division. Jags already beat them once. 5 reasons right there why bettors are backing the home dog.


this

indy's wins this year by 3,3,3,4 and 6 this year.   the 6 was a fortunate OT win.  I think I'll grab the +4 I see at SIA.  Indy does not have blow out wins....and now they are on road on grass in division and short week of another emotional win with Pagano around and everyone taking about Indy this week with the bald heads and such.  lots of distractions
 
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Posted: #28

Quote Originally Posted by RemiRem:

Colts wins (5) are a total of 19 points combined. Hard as it is, Im taking the points. Colts should win but as posted above, those 5 reasons and my own, im taking the points. How did Ohio do vs Bowling Green? Everyone and their Mom had Ohio. Good luck fellas, just a small play but should be interesting tonight.

I was on BG

 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by RemiRem:

And Mr Quija our Lions are just looking good right now buddy!

I'll  to that.  Big game on Sunday though.  We dont win this playoffs are looking gloomy. 

 
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Posted: #30

Quote Originally Posted by jefff:



this

indy's wins this year by 3,3,3,4 and 6 this year.   the 6 was a fortunate OT win.  I think I'll grab the +4 I see at SIA.  Indy does not have blow out wins....and now they are on road on grass in division and short week of another emotional win with Pagano around and everyone taking about Indy this week with the bald heads and such.  lots of distractions

I know what you guys are saying about  the winning margin.  But they have covered every spread when they win. 

 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by Pasteur:



This ^

Don't handicap the game, handicap the spread in this one.  Sportsbooks just took a huge hit last weekend, which they need to do sometimes in order to keep the public interested in laying money on games.

However, once the books pay out the public like this, don't expect it to happen again like that for the rest of the season.  The public will still win some games, but now look for books to start cleaning house again on prime time games and heavily wagered games.

Setting the line at Colts -3 is begging for action on the Colts.  In this situation, AFTER THE BOOKS TOOK A HIT, if they are begging for action on one side, go the other way.
Not only do they want IND $$$ but they want heavily juiced IND money! There's a reason the line hasn't come off -3 even with 75% of action coming in on IND, that's cuz their comfortable with JAX being able to cover this # so they'll juice the hell out of the -3 (-125/-130, etc.) and make a ton more
 
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Posted: #32

And if we are gonna talk about winning margins lets talk about losing margins as well.  You always gotta look at the flip side.  I feel sorry for those who dont.  Tunnel vision will get you smoked.

Jags losing margins.  3, 20, 17, 38, 3, 9, 17

with the 20, 17, 38, 17 being at home

 
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Posted: #33

Yes, very tough game in Minn (4-1 at home Minn that is) PLUS i have Lions-2 right now on the site i use but past hour its been off the board??? Only game missing. Lions can do it for sure.

 
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Posted: #34
I was just looking at Jags losses, this damn game might be harder than i expected. I was thinking Colts all week but i shall wait and see how that spread moves throughout the day. NBA way to hard right now, 3 days of no action got annoying lol, good job on BG.
 
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Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by mrquija27:

And if we are gonna talk about winning margins lets talk about losing margins as well.  You always gotta look at the flip side.  I feel sorry for those who dont.  Tunnel vision will get you smoked.

Jags losing margins.  3, 20, 17, 38, 3, 9, 17

with the 20, 17, 38, 17 being at home

In the spirit of being objective here, we also have to take into consideration that those big margin losses came against teams with more seasoned QB's like Stafford, Rodgers, Cutler, Daulton, etc. not a rookie on the road in a divisional game in prime time on a short week
 
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Posted: #36
Lets also not forget that this is a Colts squad that won a whopping 1 game last year! Now, I realize that Jax is a bottom feeder as well but, it might just be asking a little too much of this Ind team to go on the road in a short week and win another one by a margin of more than 3!

I know Luck set a single game passing record last week for a rookie but, anyone who watched that game and is familiar with Mia's secondary will tell you that Sean Smith lost that game for the phins last week and was responsible for a lot of Luck's success through the air. If you were ever looking for an example of someone being "on the take" then look no further than S. Smith in last weeks game. The guy had 2 of the easiest INT's that at the last second he mysteriously dropped, and some of his actions on coverage that resulted in TD's were questionable at best! Made the rookie look like Manning in his prime!
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by RemiRem:

Yes, very tough game in Minn (4-1 at home Minn that is) PLUS i have Lions-2 right now on the site i use but past hour its been off the board??? Only game missing. Lions can do it for sure.

Yes they can.  Lets go Lions!!!

 
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Posted: #38

Quote Originally Posted by Dolphan:

In the spirit of being objective here, we also have to take into consideration that those big margin losses came against teams with more seasoned QB's like Stafford, Rodgers, Cutler, Daulton, etc. not a rookie on the road in a divisional game in prime time on a short week

Well lets do this.

You speak of QBs I will talk teams

Green Bay:  Both teams got this team at home, both actually played competitive games. One of these teams won by 3, the other lost by 9

Detroit:  We dominated this game, it was never competitive and we did this by running for the most part.  Jags couldnt move the ball at all.  They had less than 300 yds total and both their scores came in the end when the game was out of hand (garbage time).  In case you dont know our defense is not good and our secondary might be worst in the league.

Cincy:  Cincy is just not good and Jags where never in it.

Chi:  Both teams also played this team.  Jags got them at home and got destroyed 41-3.  Indy played in Chicago in Luck's debut and actually competed.  I dont remember the game a whole lot other than I believe there was a pick 6 for both teams and I bet Chicago and I was nervous until the 4th.  I also took Chicago vs Jags and..... never got nervous.

 
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Posted: #39
What do you think about a teaser of Indy +10 and U 49. Also an interesting fact on the O/U is The Colts are 0-11 OU(-11.8ppg) since November 25, 2004 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date.
 
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Posted: #40

csharp1990 looks like like a good tease but how'd you get Indy +10?

For the record I was never set on the Colts but I havent seen one non situational angle yet.  Just give me one please.

 
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Posted: #41
To bet Jags it is.  Tons of situational angles point to Jags.  Talent points Indy.  I side with talent first.  I am going Indy.
 
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Posted: #42
quija, my bad I meant Jags +11, was too busy thinking about earlier this week when I wanted Colts
 
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Posted: #43
Lol, that could be the play.  Like I said the situational angles point to Jags, Talent points to Indy.  In my book it should be a no play.  But I cant not play.  It will be a smaller play but I always go with talent first then situations. Jags are just horrible.
 
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Posted: #44
on paper its the COLTS tonite.....in the minds of the Colts players......the Colts will win tonite!.......everyone like the Jags?.......my friend said watch out!  tonite's game...will be  a MAFIA game! 
 
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Posted: #45
Could do that teaser I was taking about with another bet on Colts, and in my book I'm seeing Colts -4 now.
 
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Posted: #46
A non situational angle: The jags beat them once already, in Indy.
 
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Posted: #47

Away Favs only hitting 40% on Season - Indy doesn't play a great fav in general let alone on road.  Jags +3 looks good

Jags won 4 outta last 5 ATS vs indy

 

 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by JMC1984:

OK, so the red hot, emotionally fueled(Pagano situation) 5-3 Colts and their stud rookie QB come into Jacksonville on a Thursday night to play the hapless 1-7 Jaguars who have been outscored at home 126-34 in 4 games, AND are missing their best player.

Now ask yourself.....Why in the hell are the Colts only giving 3 points?  Doesn't that seem a little off? 

The Colts have played 3 road games.  They won the most recent one in Tennessee in OT.  The previous 2 road games, they were absolutely throttled in Chicago and in NY.   41-21 and 35-9.

Maybe the Colts come out and do what everyone else has done, and just kill Jax.  But I'm guessing the Jags win this one.

because they are +3 you guess they win this one? just curious is that your actual thought process? no play for me

 
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Posted: #49
Off topic questions, is there a website that show how much Las Vegas win/loss weekly?

How does one gauge Jags in bookie side? If Vegus wanted more of Indy bet why don't they just have Indy -1. 

Indy:
1. Has better QB
2. More motivated
3. Last game, Indy lead the game until the last 4 mins.
4. Last game, Jags were pounding with MJD

Jags:
1. Without leading offense service of MJD.
2. Gabbert got picked off by Detroit twice, avging 8 yds per pass
3. Jenning average 3.1 per carry, often play from behind and having to rely on Gabbert to pass. 

Short week? It's not like Jags had the week off. So if Jags going to win this game Gabbert has to win it with his arms. I'll bet against it.
 
 
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Posted: #50
BOL tonight buddy....
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