Expanding on the situation in the Saints/Eagles game....
We used this query....
Query text......pp:HW and p:ADW and HD and op:H and week<14......to get half of the equation which gave us the Saints at 33-7-1 ATS
If we add that their opponent (the Eagles) will be less than a two point dog or favored off a home loss we get 1-6-1 ATS (-3.8) and 1-6 straight up (-2.0)....VERSUS Eagles
Query text.....
A and p:HL and week<7 and line<oA(margin)+2.5-tA(margin) and line<2 and op:AW and opp:HL
Line is moving Eagles' way in the NO/Philly game, as Gomer Pyle would say..."SURPRISE! SURPRISE! SURPRISE!!"......LOL.
The home dog in this situation has gone 7-0 SUATS winning by an average of 11.6 points/game and covering by almost 14 points/game.
Query text........pp:HW and p:ADW and HD and op:HL
For some reason I have yet to determine, I had to pass similar courses involving this kind of math and even harder to satisfy the credits for my Psychology degree. It's been over 10 years since I've had to even think about using any such mathematical equations in real life. I understand most of it still, just very rusty. In my experience you lose it if you don't use it whenever it comes to advanced mathematics.
No I haven't taken any calculus.....my father was a genius with numbers and could have made a living as a gin rummy and cribbage player, I could not touch him in either game, but I was better than him at poker and have had people tell me I could've been a pro poker player. I didn't have the motivation to spend the 10,000 hours it takes to become an expert at it....however the sports betting market I have always been fascinated with and I can easily spend 30 hours a week investigating and analyzing to get an edge.....that isn't work at all, but a labor of love.
Probably the three breakthroughs for me personally after many years of doing this was to find to come to the conclusion was that; a) time is not linear and b) zig when most others are zagging c) the mystics are always ahead of the scientists, sometimes by thousands of years.
Probably wouldn't seem too earth shattering to most, but it has made a difference to me and being successful.
I will utilize some of this in trading the stock market come November doing swing trading. A philosophy major in college named John Henry became a swing stock market trader and was worth 900 million when he bought the Boston Red Sox, and now he also owns a English Premier League soccer team that is worth a few hundred million more.
k) In the first three weeks of the NFL season, a dog who will be favored their next game, playing an opponent (the favorite) who will be an underdog their next game......173-84-6, (+4.6), 67.4%......ON Dolphins (playing at home to NE next game playing the Seahawks who will be at Detroit).
Possibly also on the Saints, as they go to Atlanta and Philly who goes to Tampa Bay.....we'll see what the linemaker puts out in their future week four lines later in this week . I would make Philly a 2 point dog on the road and the Saints a 2 point favorite at Atlanta.
Massey, as of right now has Philly being six points worse on a neutral field to New Orleans, and Philly being 4.2 points worse than Tampa Bay on a neutral field. New Orleans is 8.92 points stronger than Atlanta on a neutral field.
Miami and New England according to Massey are equal on a neutral field and Detroit being .8 of a point stronger than Seattle on a neutral field.
https://masseyratings.com/nfl/ratings
l) Week 3 home favorites that played their first two games on the road....26-45-4 ATS (-2.0)....VERSUS Jets, Steelers, Raiders
If they have one win...10-24-3 ATS (-3.7), including 7-7 if off an away win....if that win was as an away favorite 2-5 ATS...VERSUS Jets,......and 5-2-1 ATS off away dog win....Raiders
If they are off two away wins, the last as away favorite....they've been 5-8 ATS, 9-4 straight up....if the line after that away favorite win is less than -6, they've been 1-7 ATS (-4.2), 4-4 straight up....VERSUS Steelers
Team KOC betting percentages
Adding:
5) Dolphins +5........................1 unit 42%
6) Broncos +6'........................1 unit 19%
_______________________________________
1) CFL Edmonton +3', -120......2 units 36%
2) CFL Ottawa +125, ..............1 unit 49%
3) CFL Calgary +3...................2 units 57%
4) Saints pik, -105..................2 units
Denver will have to only allow a FG to score. Their offense is bad.
Pittsburgh defense does that to a lot of teams.....they are an ugly looking dog for sure......
A home favorite before week 5 off an away loss playing an opponent of a home win in a non-Sunday game...2-11 ATS (-11.9), 5-8 straight up (-7.2)
week<5 and p:AL and HF and op:HW and day!=Sunday
In the last six years home favorites in September are 0-7 ATS after playing the Chiefs
Adding:
7) Commanders +8......1 unit.............36%
But this data is completely invalid when the starting QB for the Dolphins isn't playing , correct ?
That is for you to decide....it's your wallet.
My view is that Tua is overrated and they'll play fine with Thompson and probably run the ball more, which usually means a good performance.
My college picks this week after last weeks' dismal performance...typically of all the football leagues I bet on...NCAA, CFL and NFL, my college picks have performed the best....week 3 of the college season can be tricky and it didn't go well...hopefully this week it turns around.
Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Baylor fit the parameters of the angle I used that has been 105-50-1 (+4.9), going 58-98 straight up (-4.5) with an average line of +9.4. However those three teams are all publicly backed dogs, so they were filtered out.
Plays:................................betting percentage
9) Tulsa +2............1 unit...........39%
10) Rutgers +5.......1 unit...........38%
11) Houston +5......1 unit............28%
12) Kansas +2'.......1 unit............48%
13) UTEP +10.........1 unit...........39%
14) NM State +16'...1 unit...........44%
15) Ohio +20..........1 unit...........48%
16) Buffalo +14.......1 unit...........39%
............... I see Saints +1 at ATlanta and Eagles -1 next week.
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