Indigo week 3 discussion

20-13 season to-date, +7.25 units.

I suppose I do this because I like getting my thoughts down in front of me and perhaps it might benefit others.  Using a database, those betting angles can get lost in cyberspace, so I'd rather put them down before I can lose them.

Bettors are notorious for worrying that their secret sauce (betting methology) might become public knowledge and their advantage might be negated....that is a false assumption, unless you are taking millions out of the sports betting market place. 

The Turtle Traders were a group of individuals that were hired on a bet between Richard Dennis and his business partner...one thought that a successful stock market trader could be trained, and the other thought there was some inherent qualities that certain traders possessed that allowed them to become successful...there was a movie based on this bet called Trading Places.

The placed an ad in the Wall Street Journal to fill the positions and got hundreds of responses and they ultimately hired 12 (or was it 24?). Richard Dennis taught them his methodology.  Many, but not all, made money for his firm, some made hundreds of thousands of dollars.  He won the bet.

When interviewed, he said, "you could put my trading rules in a newspaper and it would not make one iota of difference in my ability to take money out of the markets".  One of the Turtle Traders has, in fact, published those trading rules in a book. 

What Richard Dennis said of his theory that sharing his methodology wouldn't affect his profits is true also of the sports betting marketplace.

In our forum, there are seldom bettors that put down what they are actually doing in making their plays, or what they are thinking.  If one has a bad day in our betting world, it can look like our methodology is flawed, rather than the norm course of events during a season of betting, in this case on football.  I think that because we as punters don't wish to go into their rationale that betting forums are not what they could be...and in metaphysical terms  by helping others, you help yourself.

This season I have done exceptionally well in the CFL and done less than average in the NCAA....it all evens out in the end as last year I had the best college football season betting in my life.

I have a bet on the Edmonton Elks to win the Grey cup at 53 to 1.  They've been the best team in the Canadian Football league in the last couple of months  winning 5 out of their last 6 games, after starting the season 0-7.  They are a half game out of a playoff spot with four games to go....as the top 3 teams (usually) in both divisions qualify for a playoff birth with the 3rd seed playing at the second seeds' home field, with the winner advancing to play the top seed on the number seeds' home turf.  At 53 to 1 it'll present some very good hedging possibilities at things into the playoffs.  Could it lose?....obviously it probably will, but betting is all about making +EV bets over a long course of time.

The Elks' quarterback is very similar to Michael Vick, Tre Ford,.....he has been hurt but he is coming back this coming week....they have three very good backs and it is possible after their bye that they run something like a wishbone in their upcoming games as their head coach, Jarious Jackson, was an option quarterback in his playing days.

angles)

a) A NFL home favorite in game 3 that lost on the road last week....42-82-6 ATS (-3.2), 75-55 straight up (+2.3)......VERSUS Colts, Bengals

  1)  This is 19-28 ATS if our home favorite has zero wins

  2)  This is 2-8 ATS on MNF

Query text.....p:AL and HF and week = 3 and day

b)  A NFL week 3 away dog that lost at home last week has been 71-60 ATS, this moves to 38-23 ATS if their present opponent will be a dog the next week, as Seattle goes to play at Detoit their next game....ON Dolphins

b)  A NFL week 3 away dog that lost at home last week has been 71-60 ATS, this moves to 38-23 ATS if their present opponent will be a dog the next week, as Seattle goes to play at Detoit their next game....ON Dolphins, Ravens (if they are an underdog) and Jaguars.

I have discussed "value betting" in past discourses....in the NFL the idea of finding value and using it to your advantage is a flawed strategy for betting the NFL, and rather one should be thinking "this line is off, what is the bookmaker trying to make me do?"

I'll run and share a query based on this in a minute...first we'll talk about how to calculate a line and how Vegas does it after there has been a sufficient sample of games....the NFL and college football is unique because the sample of games is very small, which leads to difficulty in making lines for the bookmaker.

We first use points scored differential per game....if team A has scored 6 more points per game than they allow per game their scoring differential is +6, and if their opponent, team B, has scored 2 points less per game than what they allow per game then their average scoring differential is -2.

A line is calculated by subtracting one team's average scoring differential from the other, NOT AVERAGING, and then home field of around 2.5 points/per game in football is factored in.  So if team A is  the home team, we would take their differential of 6 and subtract team B's -2 to get a line of team A -8 and then give them 2.5 points to make them -10.5 for their home game against team B.

What if the bookmaker makes team A -7?....the value bettor would hop on team A's bandwagon and bet them, to the bettor's regret later.

We use a query to find out if going against the value is the correct move.

Query text.....

AD, AF and line<oA(margin)+2.5-tA(margin) and season>2013 and week<8

Away dogs have been 159-106-5 ATS since 2013 going against early season "value"....after week 7 this peters out into largely not being profitable after that.  Away favorites have been 53-36-5 ATS also.

In week 3 this has been 48-33 ATS......ON Giants, Texans, Broncos, Panthers, Dolphins, Lions, Ravens, Jaguars

Play:

1)  Edmonton Elks +3.....2 units

Adding:

CFL

2)  Calgary +3....two units

3)  Ottawa +2'...two units

1)  Edmonton +3..two units

Saskatchewan has not won in their past seven games.....Calgary looked very good in beating the team with the best record in the league last week....we'll see if that was temporary euphoria or something that they will build on.

Ottawa has rarely been threatened at home.....

I am pretty surprised at all three of these lines as I would have made the home teams Ottawa, Calgary and Edmonton all three point favorites.

I called NASA they told me if they see my Query's in cyberspace that they can't get them back before the super bowl. So the one's I have now are easier to keep track of, but I do miss the one's I lost, I just need to learn how to run this new computer and windows 11. But I did keep the LAC this week . Got lucky with the Pat's as I had them at+3.5.

Very good....the Chargers were the big fish that got away for me....I took a team instead that I did not post here, which lost, so a good week could've (or shoulda/woulda) been an excellent week.

c)  A NCAA away dog........ 

  1)  week four

  2)  whose opponent has  less than three losses 

  3)  whose opponent will be at least a three point underdog their next game

240-168-7, 58.3%, (+2.3)......ON Tulsa, Georgia Tech, Houston, Kansas, Baylor, UTEP, NM State, Ohio, Buffalo

  4)  if our team, the away dog, has at least one loss ahd the line is less than +14 this moves to 117-68-3, 63.2%

Great info

Surely from post 9… it matters how many games have been played… #2….?       I got a C in calculus…. 41 years ago.   

Of course, lookahead lines can change based on the week's performance ....all favorites that will be underdogs their next game cover only 45% of the time....however if your favorite who is scheduled to  be an underdog wins 55-0 and their next week's opponent loses 0-55, that  team that was scheduled to be a favorite might not end up being the favorite.

We can make our stipulation be that our favorite will be an underdog their next game by more than 6 points (who covers 42.5% of the time), as even the most extreme situations won't change the bookmaker's power ratings more than six points unless the circumstances are extreme or a star quarterback is hurt, as was the case in the Packers/Colts game,......the Packers almost certainly would have been thought to be the favorite versus the Colts going into their game 1 versus Philly and then of course the Jordan Love injury changed that lookahead line from the Packers being favorites to being underdogs versus the Colts. 

So, using a power rating a game ahead of the game we're postulating a pointspread is not exact,...circumstances can change enough to change and make an estimated underdog one game ahead to actually ba a favorite....that will change what we supposed some of the time.....I'm guess maybe 5-10% of the time.  I haven't actually gone through and done a season-long check to see how often a scheduled underdog actually becomes a favorite and vice versa.

The way things are calculated now is to look at the two teams' Massey power ratings and subtracting one from the other and adding the calculated home field advantage for the present season..  Instead of hitting the database percentage of 59-62% as I use another parameter to increase the winning percentage from 57 percent to around 61%, it has had a hit rate of 57% over the course of a whole season, so there is some slippage.

So, what happens in the future can have an effect on the past, or maybe it is as simple as elite teams tend to cover more often, and also elite teams are not underdogs very often.

angles cont.

d)  An additional modification of angle a.....a winless home favorite week three of 7 or less points off an away loss...11-25 ATS....VERSUS Colts

On the other hand a winless home favorite off an away loss week three of more than 7 points has been 8-3 ATS....ON Bengals.

e)  A NFL underdog week three that has not covered either of their first two games and also has not won both of their games...87-52-1 ATS, 62.6% (+2.6)....this coverage rate increases to 64% if the line is less than 7 points......ON Dolphins, Panthers, Giants

If our underdog will be favored their next game and/or their present opponent will be an underdog this moves to 42-17-1 ATS (+5.6), 71.2%.....ON Dolphins, Panthers

Query text.......week = 3 and p:ATSL and pp:ATSL and D and t:wins<2 and (n:F or on:D)

e)  A NFL week three underdog that will be favored both of their next two games....64-34-2 ATS (+5.6), 65.3%....ON Falcons (versus Chiefs), Cowboys, Bears

f)  A NFL week three favorite that will be an underdog their next two games...28-57-2 ATS (-4.9), 32.3%....VERSUS Bills, Raiders, Bucs, Steelers, Titans

g)  A NFL week three favorite that will be an underdog their next game and their present opponent will be favored their next game....30-54-2 (-4.7), 35.7%...VERSUS Seahawks, Titans

I got a different line on my Edmonton CFL play...

Plays:

1)  CFL Edmonton Elks +3' -120, 2 units

2)  CFL Ottawa Redblacks +125...1 unit

3)  CFL Calgary Stampeders +3...2 units 

Great stuff Indigo—yeah being from Edmonton good to see the Elks turn it around! I liked Jarious Jackson in his nd days then the Broncos….

Would love to see the Elks get the next two from the Bombers....

Nice post, i never heard of the turtle traders before but have listened to and read quite a bit of market trading information and all the successful traders have said they dont have any magic or extra intelligence or creativity, they are just great at following their rules

h)  A NFL dog that outrush attempts their opponent....2761-575-70  ATS (+8.9), 82.8%

This is the reason that Harbaugh West and East will cover when they are underdogs.

  1)  Home dogs that outrush attempts their opponent.....922-210-26 ATS, (+9.2), 81.4%.  

  2)  Away dogs that outrush attempts their opponent......1817-359-44 ATS (+8.8), 83.5% 

i)  A NFL home dog that in their previous two games won as an away dog, and previous to that won at home, playing an opponent off a home game, before week 14.....33-7-1 ATS (+8.5), 30-11 straight up (+5.1)  ON Saints

Query text.......pp:HW and p:ADW and HD and op:H and week<14 

Plays:

Adding....

4)  Saints -105.......................2 units

_________________________________________________

1)  CFL Edmonton +3' -120......2 units

2)  CFL Ottawa +125...............1 unit

3)  CFL Calgary +3.................2 units

week=3 and pp:W and pp:ATSL and p:L and p:ATSL and AD  (7-1 87%  Mia)

week=3 and pp:L and pp:ATSL and p:L and p:ATSL and AD  (50-29-1  63.3% NYG-Car)

j)  A NFL home dog before week 7 off a sequence of away win, home win and then home dog, playing a team off a home favorite win..... 6-9-1 ATS, 3-13 straight up (-6.4)....VERSUS Vikings

This is another reason why one queries to produce historical data....my beloved Vikings looked amazing versus the 49ers.  Their defense looked like they had 22 guys on the field against a San Fran team that one  week prior ran roughshod over a very good Jets defense.  I might have considered playing the Vikings, but now, obviously I wouldn't.

pp:HW and p:ADW and HD and op:H and month=9  (9-2  81%) NO

pp:HW and p:ADW and HD and op:H and week=3    (6-2 75%)      

pp:HW and p:ADW and HD and op:H and month=9   (9-2 81% still Saints)

I did not read your # 1… week 4… or I didn’t pay attention… my bad… appreciate your efforts sir.