IN GAME- COLTS BILLS The winner is inside

Rivers can look good when he has the lead....but he can't perform under pressure.....if the colts go down by 7 points or more then Phillip will start throwing picks left and right

Bills -3 for 2H?? That's weird. Books think it'll be a 1 point game?

Edit: sorry math is wrong, they still think it's 7 points. 

True, if you have 1h Colts or 1h under, you probably have to consider the last minute of the half as a bad loss.

No, that means Bills win by 7. Spread is -6.5, so they can't allow middles.

Sorry, you're right. Sometimes I get my math inverted on 2H's when I first see them. LOL. 

I've said it all day before the game started, if the Colts have to play catch up and abandon the run and Taylor, this ones a wrap. Their ability to mix it up is whats given them offense so far. If they lose that, this one becomes a runaway. They can't let the Bills get an opening TD here. I'm on the Bills, and if they score here, I feel really damn good.

Very much obliged Racer! This type of information is what makes these forums great. I’ve already made a lot of ingame money off this gem and plan to for years to come

BILLS FG

BILLS SH

Gl $$$$$$$$$$$NOWMAN

I think momentum has completely changed. Rivers will choke this game away and lose by more than a TD

Bills only had 2 drives both resulting TDs--Colts numerous times in Bills Territory and paltry 10 points...probably end up last team with the ball winning

If this was soccer I think that guy that jumped offsides might have got shot after the game 

I added 1u Bills -3. Bills have been a 2nd half team all year. Colts are the anithesis, a very poor 2nd half team.

@pa2918

 No problem. 

If you want to see the original rabbit hole we went down a couple years ago:

https://www.covers.com/forum/nfl-betting/whichever-team-wins-1q-wins-game-suats-103278533/1

And my original thread that started that thread:

https://www.covers.com/forum/ViewThread/103276188/nfl-ytd-teams-who-win-the-1st-quarter-win-the-game-74-of-the-time

The one change I've added since those two threads is the team with better record and you get to about 90%

There's also one for NBA: if a team with a better record wins the 1Q and scores at least 30, they win the game straight up 83% of the time. NBA is fun because you can get better odds with the scoring swings so you don't have to pay as much juice.

Another tip for all the above: play some live parlays with the system qualifiers to minimize the juice. *When there's multiple NBA/NFL/College games on simultaneously. 

Wind going Bills way now? Colts had it all their way with field position 1st half. Big factor in this game. Go Bills

Bills have started drives on their own 8, 6, and 4. All drives, but 1, from inside their 20

The Bills are 0-4 on 3rd down, and run 11 less plays than the Colts, and had the ball for 9 less minutes, but up by 4 points at half.

Frank Reich and his analytics not kicking a fg will be the death of him in this game.

@snowman76

 Like the Bills as well snowman but got Under 51.5 earlier in the week. 

Also in stats, if you kick FG first to make it 3-0. You only cover 42% against the spread. It's a pretty weird stat. That also says to bet against Colts

Colts probably need a turnover now to win

^^^

That's a weird stat, but interesting. Like settling for 3 or the Defense holding you to 3 carries over the whole game. 

Finally, some Beasley action and a 3rd down conversion. Brown has been bad so far.

John Brown for show, Cole Beasley for the dough

Tight game to sucker in some more colts money before and around the halftime, now its time for Bills to put up points and cover

Bills mafia-6.5 here!!!