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I SWEAR TO GOD I AM CURSED

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Posted: #1

I posted in college football yesterday that no matter what game, what team, what sport, or what wager I bet on, I ALWAYS, and I am not joking when I say I ALWAYS LOSE.

Is there anyone who can help me when it comes to sports betting? I am at the point I am ready to throw my fucking computer through the wall. I have been a sports player, fan, fantasy player, better for YEARS. I like to think I know shit about sports. Yet I CANNOT EVER PICK WINNING BETS. I follow what "Free Picks" are given sometimes and still lose.

Yesterday I bet on 2 college football games, both games had one ranked team vs a non ranked team. BOTH RANKED TEAMS LOST.

Today, I bet on the Colts who have ungodly numbers against the Jaguars throughout history at -3, a simple field goal spread and what do you know? THEY ARE LOSING BY SOON TO BE 11 POINTS AT HALFTIME.

I want to quit so bad, I really think I am not built for this. I can name every player on every team in like 3 sports, yet I just can win these bets. Im not trying to bitch I really am not but why do I have literally no luck whatsoever when it comes to placing my money on teams?

THE JAGUARS ARE REALLY WINNING BY 11 POINTS AT HALFTIME? Like you cant be serious.  Its straight bullshit. I am curse straight the fuck up

 
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Posted: #2
you literally have no luck. colts o line is trash, and multiple starters are out
 
Captain
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Posted: #3
Who else do you like today? 
 
Legend
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Posted: #4
The historical numbers between the two franchises mean absolutely nothing pertaining to this game today, both teams are completely different, and the situation is 100% standing on it's own. No disrespect but if you are picking winners based upon numbers from seasons past then quite frankly it's your tree and you're sitting in it.
The lion and the tiger may be more powerful, but the wolf doesn't perform in the circus.
 
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Posted: #5
You posted over in the college forum yesterday with the same type of rant. Maybe you are right, sports betting isn't your thing. You need to be more even keeled; remember once you push submit, the circumstances are out of your control. Every person on this forum has bad streaks but it is how you choose to deal with them that will make you better. I am not going to tell you to quit but maybe you just need to take a break. I have done this in the past and I find that it refocuses me because I am not stressing over a bad beat or a horrible pick. This game is 90% psychological and it can really play on your mind if you let it.  GL with whatever you do.
 
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Posted: #6
It's called betting...
 
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Posted: #7
Record ATS is the most misleading number there is. You need to figure out what really wins games, and HINT it is not what has happened historically! 

History only matters maybe 4 weeks to develop a trend, after that you are dealing with totally different players, coaches, play books, etc. 

I heard a bunch of noise last week about Jason Garret's home ATS record, but anyone who followed the Cowboys closely knew that the variance at home in just the last two years for the Cowboys was highly skewed towards bad luck (7.5 home games played without Tony Romo, 9 Home games played without Tony Romo/Romo off of injury, 10 games total played without Tony Romo/Romo off injury/Romo on short rest). You take away 10 games from the sample size and it was Jason Garrett 10-14 ATS at home, which isn't even close to as bad as 10-24. 

Try not to let your numbers convince you, my man. I always try to use numbers to both build and debunk my theories. 


 
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Posted: #8
You need to pick great teams in different situations. That's all this is. 
 
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Posted: #9

Yea I go on tilt pretty easy haha so I definitely shouldn't be betting sports.


I need to spend time researching deeper than I do. I only look at a couple sites of free predictions and consensus picks. I don't really know what else to use to give me research for the upcoming games.


Id never pay someones website for their "predictions" but maybe I should.


Is there any good researching tools or methods?

 
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Posted: #10
colts about to be down 24-6.....please tell me at least some of you bet the colts today
 
MVP
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Posted: #11
I agree, you be cursed and suck. Your luck will change, for the worse though. Good luck.
 
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Posted: #12
Here's the thing: We all know who will win, but will team x beat team z today in xzy situation...
 
Prospect
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Posted: #13
Mind sharing what other plays you like today??
 
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Posted: #14

Quote Originally Posted by hoku808pc:

Mind sharing what other plays you like today??


lol none, I have now retired from the profession of sports betting. Tell me who youre betting so I can win something man haha

 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

Record ATS is the most misleading number there is. You need to figure out what really wins games, and HINT it is not what has happened historically! 

History only matters maybe 4 weeks to develop a trend, after that you are dealing with totally different players, coaches, play books, etc. 

I heard a bunch of noise last week about Jason Garret's home ATS record, but anyone who followed the Cowboys closely knew that the variance at home in just the last two years for the Cowboys was highly skewed towards bad luck (7.5 home games played without Tony Romo, 9 Home games played without Tony Romo/Romo off of injury, 10 games total played without Tony Romo/Romo off injury/Romo on short rest). You take away 10 games from the sample size and it was Jason Garrett 10-14 ATS at home, which isn't even close to as bad as 10-24. 

Try not to let your numbers convince you, my man. I always try to use numbers to both build and debunk my theories. 


Porcelain, I have read your stuff in the other threads and I like your style and you make terrific points. I am 100% in agreement with you on historical trends not being the sole determining factors. The NFL is still an ebb and flow league in my opinion and I always put more stock in the present (injuries, travel, prior performances in recent weeks) than the past. 
 
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Posted: #16
I friend requested you, I don't post my picks, but I'll give you my best pick for the Sunday Morning games
 
MVP
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Posted: #17
Don't feel bad, we are all cursed with gambling. It's one of the seven deadly sins. Some people are just more cursed than others, that's all.
 
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Posted: #18
I also friend requested you, nfsupreme, I like talking with real cappers, that's why I put these little things out there to find people whose opinions I respect. You seem like a class act.
 
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Posted: #19
If Colts win it for you that would be funny. And at same time it would show one of your problems. You need to call it when it's over man! 
 
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Posted: #20
I apologize, I'm just kidding with you.
 
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Posted: #21
Quote Originally Posted by gcwrestling08:

you're not cursed, you just suck.

He can't be worse than you.  You are the biggest mush on this site right now.



Dude, if you want winners, just fade gcwrestling08.  You will make all of your money back.  
 
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Posted: #22
LB, another suggestion for you...please do not waste your money paying for other people's opinions. My suggestion to you is to peruse the threads on this site of the informed (like Porcelain as an example) because this is FREE information.  I have been on this site for a dozen years and I know I am a better handicapper because of all of the tricks I have picked up over the years. There is nothing wrong with tailing as long as you find a basis for the pick for yourself. Limit your picks and always be responsible from a money management perspective and you can have an enjoyable (albeit frustrating at times) hobby for years.
 
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Posted: #23
Quote Originally Posted by Lusen_Betz365:

Yea I go on tilt pretty easy haha so I definitely shouldn't be betting sports.


I need to spend time researching deeper than I do. I only look at a couple sites of free predictions and consensus picks. I don't really know what else to use to give me research for the upcoming games.


Id never pay someones website for their "predictions" but maybe I should.


Is there any good researching tools or methods?

  coin flipping
 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by porcelainfist:

I also friend requested you, nfsupreme, I like talking with real cappers, that's why I put these little things out there to find people whose opinions I respect. You seem like a class act.
I appreciate the kind words and I accepted the request-I am flattered) but I do have my moments. I am a little strong with my opinions and have irked people on this site but I do really mean well. I have always enjoyed reading posts from informed cappers like yourself. I was clueless when I started (and sometimes I still feel clueless-lol) but to last in this game, you need to have a short memory and the thirst for information. For that reason, I have always appreciated Covers and I have met alot of great people who share the same interests as me and that is awesome. GL to all today!
 
 
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Posted: #25
I hear you man, I used to be a hot head, arrogant, etc. It doesn't matter if someone disagrees with me, if anything I respect and want that disagreement. If the reasoning is solid, it helps me stay away from traps. 

Always results oriented, trying to find a better way to cap.
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