Posted:
#76
@insatiable
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HUGE MNF PLAY
Posted:
#77
In any case, 25-14-1 is very impressive. I've been tailing quite a few with and without the -120. I think both times I didn't take the hook, I need the hook. So there's that.
All that matters is that you hit enough games with the hook to cover the extra premiums in the games you lose. That's math.
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Posted:
#78
@starguide
in your example, i said the exact same thing you are saying....is the guy 10-20 playing massive dogs....or is he 10-20 playing -110 lines but one of his wins was a 20-unit wager....
and for SI he can buy from +2.5 to +3.0 for 10 cents from what i am gathering...so thats what im referring too
if your book is charging 25-35 cents for a 0.5 or 1.0 than it isnt a smart option IMO
1
Posted:
#82
Quote Originally Posted by dubz4dummyz:
for SI he can sell from +2.5 to +3.0 for 10 cents from what i am gathering...so thats what im referring to
for SI he can sell from +2.5 to +3.0 for 10 cents from what i am gathering...so thats what im referring to
if your book is charging 25-35 cents for a 0.5 or 1.0 than it isnt a smart option IMO
To give him benefit of doubt, maybe he bet earlier when line was more favorable?
Yeah NO book charges 10 cents for getting on/off of 3. EVERY legit book charges 25c-35c. But again, if you turn enough losses into pushes, and enough pushes into wins, it's worth it.
"The vig only matters if you lose." :)
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Posted:
#84
@starguide
yes but buying and paying 20-35 cents obviously changes your required win rate on said bet...which would change the dynamics of the play being +EV or not anymore
for easy numbers
-110 or 1.91 line means you need to win this bet 52.4% of the time to be profitable
-120 or 1.833 line means you need to win this bet 54.55% of the time to be profitable
-130 or 1.77 line means you need to win this bet 56.55% of the time to be profitable
this would go into your +ev calcs
2
Posted:
#92
Quote Originally Posted by Rowdie22:
@starguide No no no, they heard Davidsss took the under
@starguide No no no, they heard Davidsss took the under
All I know is based on this SI thread, I bet 6 units, and then immediately the line dropped from 51 to 50.5. So obviously *I* had something to do with it, which means SI had something to do with it. 
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Posted:
#96
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Quote Originally Posted by Kadejax: He is forgetting that almost all books are charging -135 juice to move off of 3 and 7 these days. The -120 juice off 3 and 7 are not easy to find. I do not have a problem if someone wants to buy a 1/2 point, but paying -135 for it is ridiculous and thats what both my books charge, and thats what MGM and Caesars charge. Im sure he is just forgetting.
Quote Originally Posted by Kadejax: He is forgetting that almost all books are charging -135 juice to move off of 3 and 7 these days. The -120 juice off 3 and 7 are not easy to find. I do not have a problem if someone wants to buy a 1/2 point, but paying -135 for it is ridiculous and thats what both my books charge, and thats what MGM and Caesars charge. Im sure he is just forgetting.
no juice is charged when I win...only when u lose.
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Posted:
#98
Quote Originally Posted by SportsIntuition:
@vanzack Here's my record and profit based on the worst case scenario assumptions. 25-14-1 NFL = +8.2 units What's yours "Mr. Ego, I gotta be right" What I have observed over the years is that most people who only post profit do so because their actual win percentage sucks and the only reason why they are in the green is because they won a few big plays that offset all the losses. Let's be honest "Mr. Ego"... Who's better and why? Person A who is 20-10 and +10.9 units, or Person B who is 10-20 and 10.9 units?
have not read all the thread.....but "most people who only post a profit and not record have losing record" REALLY...wow..did not know that....IN THE END CASH IS KING AND records are not my number one interest....but maybe there is a point in a better record i don't know....POSTING A RECORD "WITHOUT KEEPING A PROFIT OR LOSS NUMBER" WTF IS THE POINT IN THAT.....books don't pay records
@vanzack Here's my record and profit based on the worst case scenario assumptions. 25-14-1 NFL = +8.2 units What's yours "Mr. Ego, I gotta be right" What I have observed over the years is that most people who only post profit do so because their actual win percentage sucks and the only reason why they are in the green is because they won a few big plays that offset all the losses. Let's be honest "Mr. Ego"... Who's better and why? Person A who is 20-10 and +10.9 units, or Person B who is 10-20 and 10.9 units?
goldfinger 1964
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