HUGE MNF PLAY

If there is one thing that has been VERY CLEAR from the start is that I DON'T ADVOCATE BUYING POINTS because 99% of the bettors lose consistently, therefore, it's a losing proposition.

But for the 1% who win consistently, like myself, it does make sense for certain reasons.

If you didn't understand this before, maybe you do now.

Once again, this is the exact opposite of what you would want to do. 

It's like advocating life insurance to a healthy 20-year-old and not advocating it to an ill elderly person.

Why are you guys fighting each other? We should be fighting the books! 

The advantage is obvious given the numbers presented [+3/+16], but the bettor would never be presented with the decision to buy to +3 or +16 in the same game.

However, looking at both scenarios independently, one might be able to argue that there is great value in both.

Value is like beauty... it's in the eye of the beholder.

He's fighting with his ego, not me.

I could care less what his perspective is or about being right or wrong.

Just thought I would share a worst case scenario in my own thread based on current record and expand upon my own perspective.

But the egoic troll has a closed mind and can't see beyond his own personal beliefs.

So the conversation ends and we look forward to the game and stacking the wins AND cash.

@SportsIntuition

 that example is not talking about the same game (the +3 or +16)

the idea is that many more games end on 3 as opposed to 16....hence when you are buying around 3 you have a much higher chance of actually landing exactly on 3 and getting a push....nothing more nothing less

this is a word salad unless you can expand on it

are you saying 500 actual patriots games

or are you saying running 500 simulations of 1 patriots game....

I am saying 500 games. Sorry for the poor wording. Just meant 500 games similar to the Patriots game, where it is basically a coin flip game

Sorry if you already answered, but who do you lean to WIN the game SU? Thank you.

Best of luck Sports, thanks for posting 

(BTW, stop feeding the animals and these trolls will go away)

No need to explain yourself. Good luck tonight and the rest of the way. 

@SportsIntuition

 SP I like the way you handle yourself on Covers.  You are right in so many ways.  I had an old gambler tell me "if its so easy pickin' winners than try pickin' losers and see how that works for ya"...He was right. GL brother I'm tailing rest of way....

If you get a push after buying half a point: good you bought it, but hitting many pushes  is also indicative of betting too many fair lines ( which you shouldnt wanna do).

If you assume almost gaussian distributions ( at least jagged ones because of the incremental scores for FGs and TDs) for football results, then you should be willing to pay the more for a half point the closer it is to the median of the point distribution. And because you should disagree with the markets perception on any given median in order to place a bet, you should also consequently disagree on the value of that half point and better not buy it.

@SportsIntuition

 sorry to bombard your thread, just find the topic interesting

GL tonight, usually when we agree on picks its a good sign

@DomBooks
I will post the pick soon!

@mrb9999

@boro33

@kiddwellington

@Crater
I don't play to "push", I play to win, which is why I often see buy off the flat number [ie. 3 to 3.5] and this is evident in only having 1 push so far.

@dubz4dummyz

 You are not bombarding. I enjoy constructive and respectful exchanges.

Let's cash tonight!

@Crater

 yes theoretically.....

but just because you disagree with the line has no bearing on the actual result of the game.....sure you disagree and think you have found value.....but now the game has to be played and you are at the mercy of the bounces

@SportsIntuition

 yes always nice to talk the intricacies of what we are doing

not sure if you or invest4profits having the best season on here so far

props either way, keep er rollin

... and the hidden agendas.

@SportsIntuition

 refs can definitely massage a game if they need too...especially in the NFL and NBA

@dubz4dummyz

But it also costs a lot more to get on/off 3 than 16. The premium you pay corresponds to the frequency of occurrence. So it's not necessarily better just because of frequency of occurrence. Sometimes you sell to go from -3 to -3.5 because of the value it gives. 

Generally, I'm on the buying points side. I'd like to pay a premium for more protection. But I also sell life insurance, and I value insurance a lot more than most people. When looking at the (A) 20-10 vs. (B)10-20 scenario with equal profits, you can't assume which bettor is better without looking at how much they bet. Let's assume bettor A made all his bets between -105 and -125 with wagers between 1u and 5u. If the B bettor had positive money because he made one huge 50u bet that won while other bets are all 1u-5u, then IMHO, that's not a good bettor because of too much risk involved = worse than A. But if the B bettor made all bets between 1u and 5u, then the only way to make positive money is making a lot of underdog ML bets or other +Money bets, which means less money risked for same winnings = better than A.

@SportsIntuition

Well, OK, please replace "push" in my posting by "result close to the betted line" then. Ideally the median of the results of the games that you bet on is not close to the betted line. And the more the results are shifted on the x axis, the less valueable are those half points close to the main line.

@SportsIntuition