Record stands at 3-5 - 7,250.00 here on posted plays. Last play the Colts defense didn’t give the offense a chance in that game, I move on. Record is crap, while posting my plays , but as we all know, I could be in the positive in know time. I wager larger than most , I’m quite sure of that. Been waiting on this particular game all week long. Been looking at the line movement. Opened HOU - 1.5 on or around 12/16th, then a few days later it moved to LAC - 2 to - 1.5 after they embarrassed the Cowboys last week. Well , Houston’s defense is the exact opposite of what the Cowboys represent. After my research, I see that Houston should actually be favored here. In SOS Houston ranks anywhere between 2nd & 7th on respectable sites I visit , whereas LAC ‘s rank between, 23rd & 28th, in a playoff atmosphere like we will have tonight, where HOU is still trying to get to the postseason, that SOS will be telling. HOU is better overall in defense, offense, and ST’s. Per “ PFF “ Houston has the top 6 pass rushers in the entire league, in a game where LAC will play 2 to 3 3rd string offensive lineman tonight. HOU ranks 5th in weighted DVOA , whereas LAC ranks 14th. Stroud is a top 10 QB league wide since week 4 in EPA drop back success rate. LAC ranks 31st in run block win rate and 32nd in pass block win rate going against the absolute best and most consistent defense in the league. Will see if J. Herbert plays the entire game, he’s definitely a warrior. LAC have given up 51 sacks ( 29th ) worse , whereas HOU have given up 31 ( 12th best ). HOU gives up 84.3 yds per game in the run, whereas LAC gives up 96.1 yds on the ground @ home. In a physical game like we’re going to see today, whoever can pass protect the best , run the ball the best and play better defense will win this game. HOU is better in all facets there. Don’t forget how HOU manhandled LAC last year in the playoffs. Again the adjusted sack rate is key. LAC has a 9.7 % sack rate which is extremely high, compared to HOU @ a 6.0% , which is below league average. We win what we lost on the colts the other night plus a little bit more with the stronger overall better team. Also a caveat, D.Ryans road record ATS wise as a dog is very impressive. 4,400/4,000 + 1 , and 600/500 + 1.5 , two different books. GL and Happy Holidays to all.
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