Ok now lets flip it and look at San Francisco Offense Vs. Baltimore’s D.
Obviously the Forty Niners’ are a running team at their core, Kap is turning into the Brady of 2001, making clutch throws but letting the run game and defense do most of the heavy lifting. Not saying anything about Kap, he is turning into a phenom and I believe he IS the wildcard in this game. How big or little he comes up will determine the game. The Niners’ passing game consists mostly of underneath mesh routes, screens, and drags for the wide outs, although Randy does seam to still go deep. Vernon Davis however is the true down the field threat for San Fran and Baltimore could have trouble stopping him if this connection is as hot as it was in the second half of the Falcons game.
All that said I think the better defensive game plan will be on the Baltimore sideline. Now experience with an opponent had something to do with this, but the game plans successive ravens coaches, *Cough* Ray Lewis *COUGH* have come up with to confound Brady, Manning, and often Big Ben, are not to be underestimated. Playing and winning against those quarterbacks takes a great game plan, disguise, and discipline, all things that the FORTY NINERS OFFENSE SEEKS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF! Baltimore will not let the read option and other quirks fool them for the WHOLE GAME.
I see Vernon getting jammed every play off the line of scrimmage. Again this would mean a huge drop off in pass rush, especially because Suggs would often be the jammer. But think about it, no pass rush is needed against this team.
If you watch Kap, the one thing he does not do YET is progress from covered receivers to second and third receivers; it is first look and then run. San Fran WILL EITHER be running the ball OR PASS TO THE FIRST LOOK ONLY, after that he always tucks and runs. Go back and watch some tape if you want proof, it is part of the reason he is such a dynamic runner, he is AGGRESSIVE WITH HIS LEGS. All the Vernon throws, Crabtree throws, first looks, great play design and throw, but no progression. Baltimore will try to take that first look away and bottle him up using a “mush rush." This will require a big game from the Raven linebackers but I don’t think Ray or the defense would have it any other way.
Looking at the offensive and defensive lines, I see another draw here. Both are full of warhorses. Joe Staley, Haloti Ngata, I mean were going to see the clash of the titans on Super Sunday. But I see it much like the start of a sumo match; both big men meet, slap each other, and can’t move an inch. In the NFL a stalemate usually means the offensive line has won or at least not lost, but like the Niners defensive line, the philosophy is space eating. The big defensive linemen of the ravens are bred to occupy blocks so Ray Lewis can clean everything up. This leaves the Ravens linebacking core to either show up or shut up against Frank Gore, L. James, and Kap on the read option. Although I think Balty will struggle with this aspect of the game early, certainly by halftime these on field coaches will have figured out exactly what they need to do to stop this aspect of the offense. I believe this because they will spend all week learning and practicing against the read option, be surprised by the speed and power of the Niners game early, but after they get used to the speed, techniques and emotional staying power will start to make plays.
The last part of the Ravens D, the back end, I believe is a big advantage over the Niners’ receiving core as a whole, if you include V. Davis, include Ravens backers to cover him. A game of importance to me is the last game of the season against Arizona. Yes it was a real game, division rivals, chance to knock Forty Niners’ from home field advantage, both teams wanted a win and played like it. Not many people watched that game but it was a much closer affair than the final score indicates. The big, physical defense of the Cardinals thoroughly won that game, but was literally playing without a competitive offense. Adrian Wilson and that secondary caused all kinds of problems for the Forty Niners. Although not as nasty as Adrian Wilson, they have B Pollard for that, Ed Reed, who also may retire after this year, is far deceptive than the vet from Arizona. If Kap thinks he can simply lock in on Davis deep in the middle of the field, I think we will watch another Ed Reed Pick 6 Special. He is one of the most deceptive secondary players in league history at baiting routes he wants thrown. This is part of the reason he is able to pick off veteran quarterbacks like Manning and Brady. I think Kap should be more focused on #20 than anyone else on the field potential day spoiler. Although Crabtree has been hot, he was not quite the same guy last game and the Ravens secondary tackles MUCH, MUCH better than either the Packers or the Falcons.
In short, Baltimore Defense is again a slight mismatch for San Francisco’ offense. I think we see a draw at the line of scrimmage and in the linebackers against backs and tight ends. However, Baltimore does have a clear advantage in the secondary against the wide receivers of the Forty Niners’. Given that an edge exists in the secondary, I also expect if necessary for Pollard to drop into the box to dirty some jerseys.
Forty Niners’ Offense vs. Baltimore Defense= Slight Edge
-MVP Joe Flacco
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