Flawed Logic: and Bad Decisions: NFL Edition

@countrybob

 LFG BOB.

WE ARE GOING TO CRU$H THEM TODAY BRO. 

Chargers -6.5 — this just improved

Shortcard 

This is exactly the inactive combination I was waiting for

Ladd McConkey is ACTIVE.
Brock Bowers is OUT.

@LVTruck

 Chargers / raiders I think raiders looked good Kirk cousins isn’t bad and Ashton is good, fading Mike McDaniel . Raiders +7

jax/Denver Jax small market, good on D or and offense. Jax could win outright so I’m taking Jax +3

dallas/wash no bet but cowboys can score in bunches so if I had to play - Dal -4

seattle-Arizona - no darnold no play, but if to I’m taking cards +4.5

Miami-sf . Sf should blow the doors off Miami. Super Bowl contender vs toilet bowl contender. It’s either sf-13 or nothing 

Bag it 

FULL $END.

WE'RE HITTIN TODAY. 

e

NFL [268] LA CHARGERS -6½-115 BIG 

BIG.

LET U$ FKN GO.

THE CHAGA$$$. 

A little more under the hood on why I’m on the Chargers -6.5.

The biggest number for me is Ladd McConkey. With him on the field last week, the Chargers averaged 6.3 yards per play with a 41.4% success rate. Without him, that dropped to 4.2 yards per play and a 33.3% success rate. Herbert averaged 10.3 yards per attempt with McConkey out there compared to only 5.4 without him.

The efficiency numbers tell the same fucking story. The Chargers were +0.12 EPA per play with McConkey on the field and -0.61 without him. Herbert was at 8.9 yards per attempt before McConkey left and just 3.9 afterward.

He’s active today. That fucking matters.

Now flip it over.

Vegas scored 27 last week, but Kirk Cousins threw for only 160 yards at 5.3 yards per attempt. On throws 10+ yards downfield he was 1-for-7 for 21 yards with zero touchdowns and two interceptions.

Now Brock Bowers is officially out, and starting corner Darien Porter is out for Vegas as well. McConkey is active for LA.

So I’m getting Herbert with his most important receiving weapon back against a Raiders offense that was nowhere near as explosive as that Week 1 final score makes it look.

Better quarterback. Better offensive setup. Home field. The injury news broke exactly where I wanted it, and most importantly I’m still underneath the key number 7

LET THE CHARGER$ COOK.

LFG TRUCK. 

$HOWTIMEEE.

LFGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG. 

INTERCEPTION.

LFGGGG. 

@LVTruck

please don't do it dead might win by 3 or lost straight up

@gary4323

 Your 20 minute late from Kickoff.

Please delete your account. Thx. 

LFG. 

DDDD FEN$E.

LET$ GO FKN $COREEEE. 

@gary4323

 STFU

@countrybob

WERE ABOUT TO TAKE THE FKN LEAD.

LFG. 

Cousins is 3-of-5 for 28 yards with an interception, and the Raiders have only 37 total yards through the first chunk of the game. That’s pretty much the offensive limitation we were talking about before kickoff.

The Chargers haven’t done anything special yet either Herbert is only 3-of-6 for 29 yards, and they’ve run it 6 times for 15 yards. They also missed a field goal, so there was already one scoring opportunity that produced nothing.

FK

DEFEN$E. 

@TheBoogeyman931

@TheBoogeyman931

there defense can not stop any body you 'll have a long day go back to sleep

That they may. One thing I CAN A$$URE YOU,

I'll actually be here $TART 2 FINI$H.

Not 20 minutes into the game. 

@TheBoogeyman931

  i did not see his post i went to a bookies bet on seattle  other wise i will warn him not to bet on them