ESPN APP SYSTEM

Question

This system is actually for NFL and NCAAF, as long as the game fits a certain criteria. The best way to explain how the system works is give you an example of my first bet.

Tennessee -160 vs Georgia Tech +140

Now Tennessee is a -160 favorite which gives them about a 61.5% chance of winning this game. That is the math behind the odds, a simple google search will show you the percent chance each team has of winning based on their moneyline. Georgia Tech is +140 which gives them a 41.66% chance of winning.

After you check the moneylines and the chance the books give each team of winning, head over to your ESPN app and click on the game. You will see ESPN gives Tennessee a 68.1% chance of winning and Georgia Tech a 31.9% chance of winning.

With a 68.1% chance of winning, Tennessee should be around -220. With a 31.9% chance of winning GT should be around +160.

The value here is in a Tennessee ML play. Im looking for differences of 5% and higher. Tennessee is 68.1% likely to win, yet we are getting to bet them as if they are 61.5%. This is a 6.6% different.

The bet: Tennessee ML -$160 to win $100

I did this last year for NFL on a couple of games when i had some free time and had some success although i dont have the exact numbers. Going to give it a try for both NFL and NCAAF this year. Right now the Lions and Bears look like they have some value this sunday.

Best of luck.

AceRothstein27 · Answer

This system is actually for NFL and NCAAF, as long as the game fits a certain criteria. The best way to explain how the system works is give you an example of my first bet.

Tennessee -160 vs Georgia Tech +140

Now Tennessee is a -160 favorite which gives them about a 61.5% chance of winning this game. That is the math behind the odds, a simple google search will show you the percent chance each team has of winning based on their moneyline. Georgia Tech is +140 which gives them a 41.66% chance of winning.

After you check the moneylines and the chance the books give each team of winning, head over to your ESPN app and click on the game. You will see ESPN gives Tennessee a 68.1% chance of winning and Georgia Tech a 31.9% chance of winning.

With a 68.1% chance of winning, Tennessee should be around -220. With a 31.9% chance of winning GT should be around +160.

The value here is in a Tennessee ML play. Im looking for differences of 5% and higher. Tennessee is 68.1% likely to win, yet we are getting to bet them as if they are 61.5%. This is a 6.6% different.

The bet: Tennessee ML -$160 to win $100

I did this last year for NFL on a couple of games when i had some free time and had some success although i dont have the exact numbers. Going to give it a try for both NFL and NCAAF this year. Right now the Lions and Bears look like they have some value this sunday.

Best of luck.

AceRothstein27 · Answer

Record: 1-0, &#x2B;100 Not the easiest win but still a win and i&#x27;ll take it. Thursday is the first NFL game so lets take a look. Patriots -425 = 80.75% chance of winningESPN Percent- 74.3% chance of winning = -290 odds (approx.)This shows that by betting Patriots moneyline, we are losing value. Chiefs- &#x2B;335 = 22% chance of winning approx. ESPN PErcent- 25,5% = &#x2B;300. Chiefs would need to move to &#x2B;400 or higher for this to be a play if they stay at 25.5%. As of now this is a NO PLAY. For Friday, Ohio is looking like a play with ESPN showing a 51.5% chance of winning and &#x2B;165 odds. At &#x2B;165 the odds give them approx a 38% chance of winning so we are looking at a difference of 13.5%. Going to watch the odds, if they drop to &#x2B;150 i&#x27;ll be pulling the trigger on this early.Best of luck

Dzzy · Answer

Think you are on to something.. Will be watching

Hypnos · Answer

This system is actually for NFL and NCAAF, as long as the game fits a certain criteria.What&#x27;s the criteria that must be met for a game to qualify?

AceRothstein27 · Answer

As of right now, i&#x27;m looking for games that are higher than a 5% difference. If espn has a team that is 55% likely to win and i&#x27;m getting odds that reflect a 45% chance to win. Ill be betting them. Same as a team that is 90% likely to win on espn and i&#x27;m only paying for odds that reflect 75% likely. The reason is that if espn is correct, and the 60% team wins 6/10 times and i&#x27;m getting odds that are lower, i&#x27;m getting good value and will come out ahead in the long run.

bailey314 · Answer

So if they qualify they are always moneyline bets?

satchmo76 · Answer

hmmmm. . .-160/&#x2B;140. . .those lines contain juice. . adjust them to -150/&#x2B;150 for winning % calculation first?  legit question, not implying you&#x27;re doing it wrong

AceRothstein27 · Answer

Placed my second bet today for the college game on FridayOHIO &#x2B;145 , 100 to win 145. At &#x2B;145, Ohio has a 40.8% chance to win this game based on the odds. The ESPN APP actually has them as the favorite, with a 51.5% chance of winning this game which is a difference of 9.7%.Once again we have seen the odds drop on one of these bets. Tennessee went from -160 to -185 and Ohio has gone from &#x2B;165 to &#x2B;145.  Going to continue to see if this becomes a trend with these games because maybe I will need to pull the trigger earlier than I want to in order to get the best value. Chiefs have moved to &#x2B;350 (22.5) which is still not enough to make the a valuable play. ESPN gives them a 25.2% chance of winning so they would need to still hit &#x2B;400 (20%)or higher in order to have value.

motowner · Answer

What makes you think ESPN is a more accurate market maker than linemakers? That&#x27;s a very dangerous assumption to make when trying to run numbers and decipher value.

AceRothstein27 · Answer

i was considering taking the spread on underdogs to increase my win percentage but I realized that the value is in moneylines since according to ESPN im getting better odds than the team truly deserves. It's entirely possible that the bookmakers know better what odds the teams truly deserve and ESPN is the one who is off. But you have to remember, the books create a line that they think will allow them to get even action on both sides, not necessarily 100% based on a teams skill level. ESPN app has no dog in the fight and strictly analyzes the game and comes up with a percentage. That is my theory, only way to find out if it works is to track it.

I also randomly came up with the 5% difference because i thought that was a big enough difference to make it valuable. Its possible that 5% might be too low and maybe I should increase the difference.

Dzzy · Answer

Hey Ace.. After that KC win last night you might be on to something

AceRothstein27 · Answer

Really wish my book hit &#x2B;400 because the chiefs would have been a play then. Hit &#x2B;375 and went back down but i do think a couple of books did offer &#x2B;400 so if you were lucky enough to have that number, you wouldve played last night. Tonight play: Ohio &#x2B;145. They are currently &#x2B;140 and when i first started watching this moneyline it was at &#x2B;165 so it seems to be on its way down. The espn app has them at a 51.5% chance to win this game so were getting underdog odds on who espn thinks should be the slight favorite.

Dzzy · Answer

so do you just go down the list of games then crunch the numbers?

AceRothstein27 · Answer

Yeah pretty much... Ohio is down to &#x2B;120, very happy to have &#x2B;145 and see that 2 games in a row the odds dropped by gametime, shows the $$ is coming in on the systems bets. However, makes me wonder how many games tomorrow i could have gotten better lines with if i pulled the trigger earlier. Best of luck tonight whoever (if anyone) tailed

monstergrit · Answer

this. youre basically just tailing ESPN when you see value. not a terrible idea, but dont see it long term profiting. BOL

AceRothstein27 · Answer

Ohio gets blown the F out lol 1-1 record and back to zero dollars. 10 plays for tomorrow will post in the am.

rivermonsterz · Answer

you should consider using a kelly criterion calculator for these bets.

AceRothstein27 · Answer

army 86% at -650, espn 92.6  d = 6.6%syracuse 80.75% at -425, espn 87.4% d= 7%mississippi state  77.5% at -350, espn 87% d=9.5% Parlay    50/42  duke &#x2B;110 47.6%, espn 56.7 difference   9.1%       30/33n.carolina approx 24.5%at &#x2B;335, espn 41.1, difference 16.6%      25/84uab is &#x2B;475 18.5%, espn has 25.8%difference 7.3%       25/119umass 40% at &#x2B;155, 50% espndifference 10%        30/47tulane 25% at &#x2B;335, 31.4 % ESPN6.4% difference       25/84illinios 57.2% at &#x2B;235, 28% ESPN29.2% difference     30/71arizona 52.5 at -110 &#x2B;1, 59.6% ESPN. 7.1 difference           45/41Going with the parlay on the favorites because if one loses i&#x27;ll save money, If they all win i&#x27;ll make less but if let&#x27;s say army loses, the entire day is basically shot and i don&#x27;t want to risk that. Also dialed my bets back a good amount instead of betting to win/risk $100. Still testing this system, shouldn&#x27;t be going betting it like it&#x27;s proven just yet. I also looked at that kelly criterion, very cool. if this does workout that is definitely the way to go about betting it. Thank you BOL and GO UAB!!

AceRothstein27 · Answer

One NFL play for tomorrow:Lions &#x2B;120, 50/60Lions are &#x2B;120 which shows them as having a 45.45% chance of winning. ESPN App has them at 59.1% chance of winning. This is a difference of about 14%. Personally like this bet so betting a little bit more on it. Currently 2-2 with our bets for &#x2B;8. North Carolina collapses in what was a competitive game and Duke rolls over NW. Parlay is still alive with Army&#x27;s win. BOL

AceRothstein27 · Answer

UAB, UMass, Tulane.... 0-3 and currently -72 lol maybe the system is the other way around?? Need Syracuse to keep the parlay alive an that ones a coin flip right now

KingRGIII · Answer

Yikes

lajohn · Answer

It is actually worth following for the rest of the season...Makes sense for "live betting"...

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