Early Grabs

WAS +2.5 -105

NE +2.5 +109 / +3 -112

AZ O39.5 -104

PIT +3.5 -107

ATL +3.5 -114

CLV +5 -108

IND -2.5 -107

DAL +4 -107

WAS O41 -108

Are these bets or leans Raiders? Good luck!

You have to tell us about that Patriots wager.

I'm looking at Cleveland, but would rather have Shedeur? I think.

Good Luck 

I have them now and generally keep around half as I look more into them. 

A lot of times they are leans where I see the line moving in may direction and if I look into it more and like it I will keep it or add to it.

If something comes back I do not like for some reason I will get out.  But it is so crucial to get so many early if you like them.

Your method is sound, like several of these leans/plays!

@undermysac

 I like CLV no matter the QB.  But I think Sanders would be better.  He has shown that he learns from previous game mistakes.  Plus he is a wildcard and that helps in a game like this.  With Watson the other team knows what to expect.  This seems an overreaction with HOU and under reaction with CLV.  CLV defense is solid at home.

I actually think CLV should be favored.  Teams generally work on what they did poorly the past week.  CLV will work on moving the ball.

NE is a clear overreaction to last week's game as well.  The only reason I may back off is that I really think being outside benefits NE far more.  But being int'l I am not sure how that works out.  I like to skip those games anyway.  So, I will be looking for a reason to get out.

But I think NE will also work on what went poorly last week.  They will work on getting the defense right.  DET already is having more trouble lately scoring -- 20, 19, 19.  I think NE can help them stay that way.

Maye has shown that he bounces back and is fearless.  So, I do not see him tentative at all.

@SecretAgentMan1

 Your method is sound, like several of these leans/plays! 

It is mainly for posting here also.  I have always done it this way.  

It is confusing if you post an unrealistic line on Sat or Sun.  But how often does the movement move away from what would have been a good line for you if you took it right away.  So, now if you post a current line and it loses but your really won or pushed it is irritating.

If you have your. numbers 'set' at what you think should be correct then when they open you should know right away if you see something worth getting.

This is very good to do with totals as the season progresses and the weather looks to affect a number you already think came out too high.

But you also have to sort of anticipate injuries.  Then if someone does not practice that is key and it will change things.

So, I will build a position on something I like and add to or take away from it with new information throughout the week or get out completely.

@Raiders22

Patriots I like as well this week in which I have done well betting on a team following games when beaten as a  favorite (Patriots-3.5 outright lost at home to Packers) turns up a dog (patriots +2.5 the following week playing Detroit come Sunday morning.

Good luck this week I'm still dodging and weaving And adding and leaning a lot myself this week. 

@justliketoplay

 That is a very good point.  

I had not considered it like that. 

Good luck Raiders.  

@Raiders22

 What’s your read on these three games-

WAS/NYG

MIA/IND

GB/MIN

I lean WAS. I’d prefer to see a 3 but seeing as how you took 2.5 early you’re probably not hopeful on that? Giants have critical players practicing in full. Coaching mismatch as usual here with Dan Quinn being a complete clown. I actually like the offensive matchup for WAS but I have concerns about how they’ll handle the pass rush.

Indy as a favorite is terrifying. If you laid the 2.5 you’re in a better position, but how much does this qb situation matter for Miami? Miami seems to fight every week. Indy has got to be struggling to keep these players interested. I can’t even imagine what Taylor’s current motivation level is. You’re basically asking this Indy team to go out there and put up an effort when they’ve clearly quit on the season. Importantly for me I like to play against Indy when DJ will face a decent pass rush which Miami seems to have.

 I have Min +4.5 in pocket already. We know they’ll get after Jordan Love. We know that he’ll be heaving the ball to his WRs no matter what. I’m not too confident in Minnesota on the back end. That’s where they got hurt against buffalo giving up a few big plays. I don’t believe Gb will run the ball as well as buf did. Can Captain Kirk come in right away and be competitive?

@brn2loslive2win

 I like WAS.  There QB situation is just much better and steady. Up down up down .. now up?

Likely their last chance to make a run at the division.  Their defense is solid in all 3 parts.  The weakest part of NYG is their pass defense.

The pass rush is easier for Daniels to deal with because of that and the fact that he can take off and will.

IND at home knowing the trade deadline is over and they are what they are now will help.  They have the QB and RB they have.

Willis has been looking gimpy lately.  He is not on the report but just seems sketchy.  I am not a big fan of him right now.  IND at least has good pass rush.

It just seems time for me to get off of looking at MIA on the road.

GB I am real big on right now.  I have said I would not be surprised to see them at the top and make a deep run in the playoffs.  I also supported the guy that said MIN might finish last in the division.  They only have 2-3 games left that they will be favored in and could lose to a couple of those.  

I am not sure how much difference a new QB makes right away.  Love and GB are on fire.  Both sides of the ball are playing good.  MIN it is just their defense.  

But just in case a new QB jumpstarts them and GB has a 'letdown' of sorts -- I likely just stay away.

Yes, the +5.5 at open looks good now and +4.5 is a good number.  But I think at +3.5 it is a slight overreaction that the offense will all of a sudden be good.

They never really gave Wentz a chance to look decent, even.  Line needs better blocking and WR need to try to get separation and even their running game looks awful.

@Raiders22

 I’m with you and many others in being high on GB right now. But here’s a few counter arguments-

Green Bay when facing a formidable pass rush has not won a game by more than 3 points. The week 1 matchup vs the Vikings ended with Love sacked 4 times and hit 15 times. There really isn’t any reason to expect anything different this time around. You could say that the o line is better now. But it’s not better so much that the Vikings won’t repeat a similar type performance. And never forget the idiocy that Matt LaFleur will likely put on full display in this critical matchup…

Malik Willis is on IR! Kyle McCord will start. He’s a qb who had some impressive performances in college, ended up a 6th round pick, and was passed around a little bit. Obviously significant. Hard to bet on these backup QBs these days. I just ultimately don’t believe that Indy is 3.5 points better than anyone right now. I have a small position on MIA but I may find my way out of it. You have Indy -2.5. Ok good number. How would you feel if you were forced to bet the game today? Would you rather lay 3.5 or take it? Obviously hypothetical, gun to head situation.

@brn2loslive2win

 Yes, I agree the MIN pass rush is huge and their defense overall.  But 3-4 decent drives might be enough.

But good points.

I did not see the Willis news.  But not surprised because he was limping a lot last week. I am really happy with my number now.  May still add to it along the way.

I see 4 in places.  But if they win I think they can cover 5 or 6 if they are going to win the game.

Nice Gl with them 

@Raiders22

 Just going over some of my notes about the Texans I worked on earlier in the year.

They usually start slow, but Demeco Ryans flips a switch after their bye week.

The Texans under Demeco Ryans are 23-11 overall in all games following their bye week. Including playoffs. 20-8 in the regular season alone.

Something to think about. 

@undermysac