ClubDirtSports Round One Playoff Newsletter

what is this place?

for every game, but more so in the playoffs, i start by looking at 4 matchups- defense, running game, coach and qb.  situations don't mean much to me in the playoffs unlike the regular season where that is often the most important thing to me after week 4.  look at the last two super bowl champions.  they both had to win just about every game on the road.  every team comes to play.  i just don't know how to factor in the situation like in the regular season. also, i don't pay much attention to QB during the regular season but it's different in the playoffs.  so much pressure, some guys can handle it better than others.  last season SF rnked so high in 3 of the 4 categoires that i made them my biggest play of the season against NO.  unfortunately, i made them my second biggest play of the season against the giants and kyle williams killed me. Cincy/Houston Coaching - houston on paper but you can't discount the way both teams  are entering the postseason.  something doesn't seem right with houston while cincy continues to play great defense. Running game- houston is better but not lately.  so, i suppose situatlly analysis comes into the picture because i'm focusing more on the last few weeks rather than the teams as a whole.  last week, foster averaged 6 yards a carry and they only ran him 16 times.  that just doesn't make sense.  in the other two losses to wend the season, they ran foster 15 times and 10 times.  again, something isn't right there. cincy isn't running much either and this could be their downfall today but i see this category as about even over the last few weeks when it should be a clear edge to houston. Defense- this is the key category to me.  this category should go to houston but they've given up some big numbers in some important games in the second half.  cincy has played very well on defense for a while now so you have to give the clear edge to cincy here. QB - shaub is the better qb with some experience but lately, they've both been below average.  i give a slight edge to houston due to the experience but neither qb is in any kind of good form right now.  and this category is the least important. so, i don't love cincy.  i think houston is the better team by 7 points or so.  but the only clear edge in any category goes to cincy on defense based on recent form.  but then again, i'm not sure cincy's defense is better overall.   at the end of the day, i like the 4- points and the fact that cincy has played consistently good defense for the second half while houston has been pretty bad on defense lately and hasn't stepped up in the big games to end the season.

Minn/GB 

Coaching- GB gets the slight edge here but it's hard to trust them after what they did in the playoffs last season.  but minn has no experience in the playoffs so they basically get an incomplete, although you have to give the coaching staff credit for getting to the playoffs with ponder.

Running game- obviously minn blows GB away

Defense - GB's defense has actually been pretty good this season compared with previous seasons.  they have been ok against the run overall.  minn is such a one dimensional team, if GB can put a dent in that one dimension, minn is in big trouble.  of course, that one dimesnion is pretty good and if they can't contain it, they are in big trouble.  i don't like minn's defense much on the road.  and they are weaker against the pass.  their defense has given up some big numbers on the road.  this one is close, i'd give a slight edge to GB at home in the playoffs

QB-  obviously the biggest mismatch in the game.  and while QB isn't that important a category, it is pretty important when the QB's are rodgers v ponder.

the analysis really doesn't suggest a play on GB at 7 or more but i'm putting more emphasis on QB's and my guess that after seeing them twice, GB can figure out some way to slow peterson down and make ponder make plays.  plus, rodgers may be the smartest guy on the field today and the fact that this is their third matchup this season favors him.  but as you can see, i paid extra to get 7 and only put half a unit on it along with half a unit on the GB ml in a parlay so i'm not excited about this one either.

Sea/Wash

Coaching- i've never been a fan of carroll but to have that kind of season with a 3rd round rookie qb says a lot.  shanahan has obviously been here before and also did a great job with a rookie qb and with some major defensive injuries erly in the season.  have to give the edge to wash.

Running game- obviously close but i give the edge to washington because i like RG3 better than wilson in every category, including running.  i know RG3 is a little banged up but i'm guessing he goes all out in his first playoff game.

Defense- Sea is one of the best defensive teams in the league.  washington is bad on pass defense but actually good on run defense.  and i think that dichotomy won't hurt wash much here since i just don't see Sea airing it out too much in a road playoff game against a dynamic offense. so the edge goes to Sea but not by as much as people might think.  plus, we all know Sea on the road is a different team. i'm seeing no wins against playoff teams on the road for Sea and only one arguable good road win against Chc although Chc was in their freefall mode then (in the middle of a 1-5 stretch). 

QB - i see this as a pretty big edge ti wash.  i know in this age of espnb dumbing people down with nonsense, the latest is always the greatest but  i have RG3 as being the clearly better qb in this matchup.  if this was in Sea, i'd probably call it about even but wilson has been much better at home than on the roda and this will be his toughest road test yet.  yes SF is a better team but this is an entirely different ballgame being his first playoff game ever on the road.  so, i don't see wilson as being much of a positive here.  and if wash can contain away Sea's running game to some degree, i think wilson will struggle. 

as for RG3, i love him.  he's incredible.  i'd still give the ROY award to luick but in this matchup, RG3 is the best QB on the field and i don't think it's that close.  of course, if he truly is hurt, then that could be a problem but i have know way of knowing that so i'll assume he's helthy if he's playing and says he's healthy.


as i mentioned, this is the closest thing to the value we got with SF over NO last year as i can find this round.  it doesn't mean washington will cover, morris is an overrated Rb and the thread saying he should get ROY was laughable, but Wash has the edge in 3 categories and the 4th is closer than people think so i have to take the 3 with a home dog.

Indy/Blt

Coaching - indy coaches have done a great job getting a 2-14 team last season into the playoffs.  pretty incredible.  but i'd still give the edge to harbaugh because he's a great coach and has playoff experience.

Running game- clear edge to Blt and given how bad indy's run defense has been at times, this alone was almost enough for me to play Blt.  if Blt can really expoit this mismatch, and i think they can, this game could get ugly and possibly out of reach of a luck backdoor td.

Defense-  i don't really know.  i've seen this colts defense just get pounded by Rb's this season and that's no way to go on the road into the playoffs.  and sometimes they've been ok.  Blt has a terrible defense and has given up huge numbers against good qb's. 

QB- have to give the edge to indy here.  i just can't go against the numbers which say indy has a better and more reliable passing game.  i also can't bet on a rookie qb on the road in his first playoff game.  if i ever did, it would be on luck who i think is the best rookie QB in the league.  but there's also nothing wrong with sitting a game out to play another day.

so i doubt i'll play this one.  the points are tempting but i'm scared of what might happen with the running game here. 


good luck

appreciated your write ups all regular season CD

idle, i enjoyed doing the (mostly) weekly newsletter this season and simplifying things really helped.  the above is kind of a half-behind effort this week.  i wasn't going to do one but i really don't like the matchups that much so i thought putting some thoughts together might help me sort things out.  hopefully, i'll have something better next week.

good luck today 

  and so its written