Posted:
#26
Will post thoughts/writeup shortly if requested
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*** Cincinatti Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts ***
Posted:
#28
Colts Strength of Schedule:
Andrew Luck is a good QB but this Colts team is overrated. Since the start of last season, the Colts are 23-11 (67.6%); however that includes a 12-0 record against the crappiest division in the NFL as they’ve beaten up on the Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Tennessee Titans 4 times each. If you havn’t heard of those teams before they are the ones who have Blaine Gabbert, Blake Bortles, Jake Locker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Schaub, Ryan Mallett, and Chad Henne leading their teams. Outside of the division, the Colts are a .500 ball club going just 11-11 (50.0%).
Colts Coaching:
The Colts coaching staff has some of the worst gameplans going into big games in the entire AFC. Ever notice how bad of a 1H team they are? Lots of times we talk about the Colts being a 2nd half team and coming back from large deficits. Most of the time this is due to the Coach’s gameplan not working at all in the first half. Either they are very good at halftime adjustments, or they abandon their gameplan altogether and let Andrew sling the rock around. Let’s take a look how they’ve come out in the 1H of some big games.
Half-time Deficits against Quality Opponents:
Down 10-6 to Chargers
Down 27-3 to Cardinals
Down 31-10 to Chiefs (playoff game)
Down 21-12 to Patriots (playoff game)
Down 24-7 to Broncos (primetime game)
Down 35-20 to Steelers
Down 14-10 to Patriots (primetime game)
Down 14-7 to Browns
Down 28-0 to Cowboys (not an important game for INDY but shutout entirely)
Week 7:
The Colts defeated the Bengals 27-0 in a lopsided affair. Let’s take a closer look at how prepared the Bengals were for that game. A week prior in week 6, the Bengals went to overtime and played a full 75 minutes against the Carolina Panthers in a 37-37 tie. I mentioned this earlier but road teams after a tie game are a perfect 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS all-time, losing by an average of 19.29 points. The Panthers also went to Green Bay after that game and lost by 21 points. It is no surprise the Bengals had nothing left in the tank for that game. The Colts dominated them but that wasn’t Cincinatti’s true form. How did each team perform the week after? The Colts lost to the Steelers 34-51 while Big Ben threw for a franchise record 521 passing yards and 6 touchdown passes. The Bengals returned to their true form as well beating the Ravens 27-24 in a tough divisional game. The NFL is all about spots, and the Colts will not have the luxury of facing the Bengals off a tie game this time around.
Bengals Hunger:
Last year the Bengals had a very good season and they hosted a playoff game against the Chargers. They fell flat in a huge game once again and people have been criticizing Andy Dalton and Marvin Lewis for not being able to win a big game since then. They went through an entire offseason listening to critics trash them, well how have they responded?
Prior to this year, this Bengals team has never won in Baltimore and has never swept them in the same year as Andy Dalton has gone 0-3 trying during his first 3 years in Cincinatti. Week 1 they went to Baltimore, jumped to a 15-0 halftime lead and beat them 23-16. Week 8 they win again 27-24 to complete the sweep.
Prior to this year, Andy Dalton has never won a big primetime game. Week 16 they defeated Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos 37-28 after a pick-6 that put them down 7-0.
All that’s left for this team this year is to win a playoff game. And this is a tremendous spot for them to do so.
Supporting Systems:
Non-Divisional teams in the playoffs revenging a same season double digit loss are 16-5 ATS (76.2%). As you might guess, teams that are capable of making the playoffs are quality teams that know how to make adjustments. Most people won’t admit the Bengals are a quality team but they have gone 21-11 SU since the start of last season in a very tough division (no Texans, Titans, or Jaguars in this one) so they have to be given some credit.
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Posted:
#36
Im not Going to argue this time LC, Cinncy +4.
I dont see Cinncy as the same team back in wk 6, where they lost 27-0. They were on a slump. Plus Colts had the easiest schedule, starting with the afc south and playing them twice... so for me that 11-5 is a little pumped up. what would their record look like is they traded places?
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Posted:
#42
Aj green is banged up.. even if he plays I bet his arm is still in pain from Denver game.. V Davis on Sanu. They can't be throwing to Gresham all day.. Luck got 4 stud healthy receivers... Moncreif is the X factor.. put #3 DB on him and watch they go deep..
It's gonna take a 2 big turnovers or returns for Cincy to win.. Indy is prone to turnovers so that will be key..
This won't be a huge bet for me.. depends on what happens with first 2 Games
It's gonna take a 2 big turnovers or returns for Cincy to win.. Indy is prone to turnovers so that will be key..
This won't be a huge bet for me.. depends on what happens with first 2 Games
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Posted:
#44
Only thing I see is that Green is doubtful, he hasn't been ruled out. Although it is unlikely he plays, not sure why everyone keeps saying he;s out.
Of course I would prefer him in the lineup, but this is a play regardless of if he's in or out. The Bengals strength isn't their passing game, it is their defense and rushing attack.
A positive if he plays, but still confident if he doesn't.
Thoughts on the Colts are on post #29.
GL
GL
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Posted:
#48
Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Quote Originally Posted by TheShallowCross:
Why Cinci? They got beat by Indy in week 7 of this year
27-0. The Bengals had 8 total first downs in that game. Now Green is hurt? I like the Colts here.
Same season revenge.Cinn will adjust...Win SUWhy Cinci? They got beat by Indy in week 7 of this year
27-0. The Bengals had 8 total first downs in that game. Now Green is hurt? I like the Colts here.
Wizer, how many people thought same season revenge was in store for SD in KC last week? Bengals and the rest of the AFC North all play poorly on the road. Luck has one of the better home winning percentages in the NFL. I definitely wouldn't back Cincy.
BOL to all
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Posted:
#49
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
Same season revenge.Cinn will adjust...Win SU
Wizer, how many people thought same season revenge was in store for SD in KC last week? Bengals and the rest of the AFC North all play poorly on the road. Luck has one of the better home winning percentages in the NFL. I definitely wouldn't back Cincy.
BOL to all
Bengals bad on the road huh!?!?!?... Take a look back at week 11 Bengals vs. The unbeatable Saints at home in a DOME! Then get back to us. Same season revenge.Cinn will adjust...Win SU
Wizer, how many people thought same season revenge was in store for SD in KC last week? Bengals and the rest of the AFC North all play poorly on the road. Luck has one of the better home winning percentages in the NFL. I definitely wouldn't back Cincy.
BOL to all
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Posted:
#50
Quote Originally Posted by NFLGuru83:
Same season revenge.Cinn will adjust...Win SU
Wizer, how many people thought same season revenge was in store for SD in KC last week? Bengals and the rest of the AFC North all play poorly on the road. Luck has one of the better home winning percentages in the NFL. I definitely wouldn't back Cincy.
BOL to all
Same season revenge.Cinn will adjust...Win SU
Wizer, how many people thought same season revenge was in store for SD in KC last week? Bengals and the rest of the AFC North all play poorly on the road. Luck has one of the better home winning percentages in the NFL. I definitely wouldn't back Cincy.
BOL to all
if they didn't change the QB in that game San diego was winning.
YEAH I KNOW I KNOW THAT SOUNDS NUTS. ill save you the time.
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