I'm trying to build an excel database for the NFL and could use some pointers. I have a few stats i'm keeping track of but I'm not sure how to convert these stats into a score estimate.
Eg) Redzone Efficiency --> Team A - 65%, Team B - 35%
Team A has the edge but will they cover?
How can I use previous stats to estimate the future game score?
Also, what are some of the things you guys record each week?
Any help appreciated
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I'm trying to build an excel database for the NFL and could use some pointers. I have a few stats i'm keeping track of but I'm not sure how to convert these stats into a score estimate.
Eg) Redzone Efficiency --> Team A - 65%, Team B - 35%
Team A has the edge but will they cover?
How can I use previous stats to estimate the future game score?
Also, what are some of the things you guys record each week?
I'm trying to build an excel database for the NFL and could use some pointers. I have a few stats i'm keeping track of but I'm not sure how to convert these stats into a score estimate.
Eg) Redzone Efficiency --> Team A - 65%, Team B - 35%
Team A has the edge but will they cover?
How can I use previous stats to estimate the future game score?
Also, what are some of the things you guys record each week?
Any help appreciated
Try using these to get a feel for a baseline spread. Then use the REDZONE efficiency's to look for edges either way.
I'm trying to build an excel database for the NFL and could use some pointers. I have a few stats i'm keeping track of but I'm not sure how to convert these stats into a score estimate.
Eg) Redzone Efficiency --> Team A - 65%, Team B - 35%
Team A has the edge but will they cover?
How can I use previous stats to estimate the future game score?
Also, what are some of the things you guys record each week?
Any help appreciated
Try using these to get a feel for a baseline spread. Then use the REDZONE efficiency's to look for edges either way.
I'd be really careful about using red zone efficiency numbers. I might even be tempted to use them the other way (ie bet on the team with bad redzone efficiency).
Red zone efficiency stats are actually quite random and quite likely to regress to the mean.
In non-stats terms that means that teams that play well inside the red zone and poorly out of it just got lucky and teams that play well outside of it and poorly inside just got unlucky.
I'd be really careful about using red zone efficiency numbers. I might even be tempted to use them the other way (ie bet on the team with bad redzone efficiency).
Red zone efficiency stats are actually quite random and quite likely to regress to the mean.
In non-stats terms that means that teams that play well inside the red zone and poorly out of it just got lucky and teams that play well outside of it and poorly inside just got unlucky.
I use a modified version of yards-per-point, but only use stats from each team's last game. It gives me decent results. I'm in an ATS confidence pool, and my current record picking all games is 75-48 (about 61%)
Look at stats in box scores, and use those numbers to invent a formula that works for you. Maybe you could grade each team by multiplying rushing yards by points scored, then dividing that # by the # of first downs gained. Try different combos that make sense to you. Also keep in mind that a formula that works in the first half of the season may not work in the second half, and maybe you'll also need a third system to use in the playoffs.
GL
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DegenGamble gave you a good place to start
I use a modified version of yards-per-point, but only use stats from each team's last game. It gives me decent results. I'm in an ATS confidence pool, and my current record picking all games is 75-48 (about 61%)
Look at stats in box scores, and use those numbers to invent a formula that works for you. Maybe you could grade each team by multiplying rushing yards by points scored, then dividing that # by the # of first downs gained. Try different combos that make sense to you. Also keep in mind that a formula that works in the first half of the season may not work in the second half, and maybe you'll also need a third system to use in the playoffs.
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