Seems high, I like it, NEW is on the downslide a bit and Buffalo is strong.
Perhaps you've forgotten the Bills could have and probably should have played KC in the division round of the playoffs. Maybe they'll just be the better team, regardless of who plays QB for the Pats. I certainly think so
There is a long trend where a team goes over or under their win total by more then 3 games, the next year they do the opposite. An example of regression from last year would be the bears going under after going way over in 2018. The bills went way over their opening win total of 6 which means a lot went their way, not many injuries and a schedule that was fairly easy with the nfc least. The 49ers from last year were an example of the reverse, where a team goes way under (due to injuries) then bounces back and goes way over the following year.
The Bills have done a good job with FA's. While they lost Shaq Lawson they signed Mario Addison from Carolina, 30 sacks last 3 years in a starting role, kept their O-line in tact, and signed Stefon Diggs, a much needed weapon for young Josh Allen that the Bills lacked last year. So far GM Brandon Beane (any relation to Billy?) has done a good job in rebuilding the Bills. If Allen continues to progress, they could challenge for the AFC. And who would want to travel to Buffalo in January for a playoff game? Yea, I know I wouldn't. They learned alot from the heartbreaking playoff loss @ HOU. They'll be back and better IMO, of course, staying relatively healthy. If Lamar didn't have the year he had, Allen would have garnered alot more attention. I like him and believe the Bills will be cutting down the AFC east nets this upcoming season. Rejoice Buffalo fans, your team is for real.
New England was downsliding last year WITH Brady. If Belicheck is so guru-like, and yes he is a great, why didn't they get past the first round last year and almost lose the division to Buffalo? Now who is their starting QB? Buffalo is the more complete team, younger, learned valuable lessons from choking in playoffs, and their franchise and community are far more hungry than New England. The momentum of last season coupled with their off season moves, excellent coaching and hunger to win, all make +149 hard to believe. I would bet more than the $500 I put on them, but that is the max on that prop bet. Both Miami and NY Jets may be slightly improved, but not enough to make a difference. Buffalo has the 2nd place schedule, a bit easier than the 1st place schedule New England is playing. It all adds up to Buffalo.
We will see if it was Brady or the system/coach.
Brady is going to a better offense in my opinion. Belicheck will have an inferiors QB. Let's see who does better.
Three words: AFC East front-runner. While the Jets focused on building their offensive line, the Dolphins spent big money on marquee free agents and the Patriots coped with the loss of quarterback https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/2330/tom-brady, the Bills made one of their splashiest moves of the new league year, trading for wide receiver https://www.espn.com/nfl/player/_/id/2976212/stefon-diggs. The additions Buffalo made on defense should, on paper, make an already-stout group even better -- vaulting the Bills to the top of the preseason AFC East totem pole. -- Marcel Louis-Jacques
This is from the just released ESPN Power Rankings. Buffalo is 9th, New England is 13th.
Both Dalton and Newton are PAST their prime and are only serviceable at best. Plus NE may put their money on their young QB, and IMO any of the three above mentioned QB's are not the answer NE needs with weak WR's, aging overrated defense and huge ? at QB. Buffalo IMPROVED on an already good team, adding more defense which will make their defense elite, and got Diggs from Minnesota, the one thing they needed on offense. They have a quality OLINE and running backs. New England is on a slow downslide...…..
Buffalo winning the division has nothing to do with Brady being gone. They are the better team across the board, position by position. I would've picked them if Brady was still a Patriot. I'm a MIA fan ( see avatar), I watch more AFC east football than most and been doing it for years. And Cam or Dalton can't adequately replace Brady, either of them would be a big drop down at the QB position. Personally, I hope they do take one of them, it would be the beginning of the end for BB and the Patriots. It may be anyways.
Everything out of NE points to them riding with Stidham to start the season...personally I believe the entire division will be much more competitive this year. Jet's weren't "BAD" when Darnold played, a few games over .500 for sure. Miami has to be better with all the moves they made and the progress seen throughout the year aka dumpster fire for first half of the season then winning 5 of last 9....not the nfc west but more competitive at least.