Billy Buck "BACK THE TRUCK UP" SPECIAL

BB-I wish you the best of luck on your pick. I will be pulling for you and everyone else on the Pats. This is likely a no play for me on the side (we will see if I can maintain this discipline when Monday comes around), but I am leaning to the under.

I just wanted to throw some facts out there, especially for those of you that were not able to get the good number (-6.5) that BB locked in. We all know that 7 is a VERY key number, but it seems to be even more magnified when it comes to the Pats laying road chalk.

The last 18 time the Pats were road fav’s of less than seven they are 14-4 ATS. Of the 4 ATS losses, 3 were also straight up losses.

Once the number hits 7, things shift a bit for the Pats………they are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a RF of 7 or more. They were also just 6-4 SU in those games. The only time in the last 10 years that they were laying road chalk of 7 or more ON MNF, they lost straight up (a 1-point loss to the Fins towards the end of the ’04 season—as 9.5 fav’s).

Add to that the fact that MNF (as I believe KOAJ may have mentioned in this or another thread) seems to favor those home doggies to the tune of HD being 4-2 over the last 6 such affairs and 3-0 the last 3 Monday nighters in which the home team was getting 7 or more points.

Cincy also has covered their only MNF game as HD (once again, just going back 10 years only) and they won that game straight up.

As a home dog (any occasion, not just MNF) of 7 or more Cincy is 6-3 the past 9 times.

While the Pats are 3-1 SU the past four against the Bungals, they are just 1-3 ATS. The lone SU win for the Pats was the butt kicking from last year, so if you are one of those that plays the “revenge angle” for Cincy, there you go.

So, again, just sharing some facts and figures regarding the specifics (large HD and MNF, etc.) for anyone that is interested. With all of that said, I think it would be very, very hard to go against the Pats in any situation until some sort of guy in the armor is exposed—which may not happen anytime soon. They are the best team in football and I don’t think anyone can dispute that (with any logic, that is).

I can see any scenario EXCEPT a Bungals blowout in this one…………..a last second win or last team with the ball winning or a Pats stomping in a 31-14 affair. I have some pretty strong trends/stats/numbers for the under in this match up, despite most people anticipating a shootout in this one.