BILL @ BENGALS: They'll all tell you otherwise, but this is all about one man and one man only

2016 Record: 30-12 (71%) (Colorado State -4.5 as a 30th win is pending; up 49-17 right now) 

The pick:

Bills +125 over Bengals

Too pist off to do a detailed write-up right now after all the SDSU hoopla.

This is yet another "Rex Ryan's career is on the line" game.

And Rex is not Charlie Strong. Strong only has so much behind him to support as seen vs. Kansas. Apparently, in a loss like that, they gave up on him. These Bills players will not give up on Rex.

The Bills scheduling has gone through it's roughest patch.

They lost to the following:
A clearly rejuvenated Miami team in Miami

 The Pats in a revenge spot (Bill is NOT losing to the Bills 2x in 1 year)

@ Seattle - A leader for the NFC crow.

Not chopped liver there. All explainable.

Now they get a struggling Bengals team that, wait for this, got outrushed by the Giants by almost 50 yards last game. Are you fu**ing kidding me? They have Jenning and Paul fu**ing Perkins as RB's. Bengals passing game isn't scaring anyone either. Even MANNING ran for + 6 yards (his over under per game is usually 2 yards). Now the second best rushing attack in coming in after them. And Taylor looked superb last game.

For all the squawking about the Bills D and what Ryan has done to them (for the worse last year), they lead the league in sacks at 30. They'll get to Dalton who the Bengals cannot protect and are 28th in the league allowing 28 sacks.

The points are meaningless. If Ryan doesn't win, it's over. He'll throw the kitchen sink at them. The weather looks fine at 44 degrees and no precipitation for this one.

You want to take +3 -125 as insurance go right ahead. I'm taking the ML in an absolute must-win off a bye week where Rex had two weeks to gameplan for this.

I love the Bills coming in on 3 game losing streak with a tough loss to Seattle to motivate them even more. Ideally, I'd want the Bengals coming in off a win but at 3-5-1 how can they seriously think playoffs? Bills at 4-5 and able to get to 5-5 can given the back end of their schedule (jags/browns/jets) is so favorable.

Trust in Rex. He'll bring us home. He's made us a hell of a lot of money over the years in situations just like this one. End of story.

thanks

love it thanks scal I was hoping to see u post nfl

Not what I wanted to see.  I'm awake at 4:34AM EST.  Nothing good happens at this hour.  Good luck, friend. 

appreciated as always

Scal, I really like the Bills rushing attack here against the Bengals D. But you scared me when you say a MUST win. its documented that teams that need a win against a team that is out of the Playoff Pic loss at a 64% clip I still agree with your play here I like Buff by 7. 

It looks good and I almost was convinced to take the bills until this guy says " trust In rex, he will bring us home, he has made us a hell of alot of money in situations just like this one. End of story.".    Well sir, Rex Ryan is 2-6 in situations like this one in his career off of a bye week.    Just something to think about. 

Nobody liked the Bills +ML vs. the Pats and that was an easy cover.

Always a pleasure Risk

It's not YOUR record of 2-6 off a bye that has made us money (a meaningless stat that encompasses almost his entire career with the Jets). He has made us a hell of a lot of money in games I'VE posted in situations I've assessed he's had a must-win. Why post and have an angle otherwise.

Suuma, I read your write-up and respectfully disagree.

Ideally, I want Cincy off a win and I was cheering hard for them to beat the Giants but the rest of the game was so ugly it's not even worth mentioning. Then all you need to do to get the ball back down 1 is stop Rashad Jennings....and they couldn't do it: McCoy will give them far bigger problems.

1st and 10 at NYG 41

(3:01 - 4th) R.Jennings left tackle to NYG 42 for 1 yard (V.Rey, D.Peko)

(2:56 - 4th) Timeout #2 by CIN at 02:56.

2nd and 9 at NYG 42

(2:56 - 4th) R.Jennings left tackle to NYG 45 for 3 yards (M.Johnson, V.Rey)

(2:50 - 4th) Timeout #3 by CIN at 02:50.

3rd and 6 at NYG 45

(2:50 - 4th) (Shotgun) R.Jennings up the middle to CIN 46 for 9 yards (G.Atkins, G.Iloka). CIN-G.Iloka was injured during the play

(2:07 - 4th) Timeout #1 by NYG at 02:07.

Sausage Titz (can't believe I have to address someone in this way...):

It's a bit much for you to say this is NOT ALL about Rex. That is a bit of hyperbole on my part since Rex is not actually ON the field. The players will actually win or lose the game on the field. That is understood by all.

And as far as tilting, my tilting plays would have been the games I posted that came AFTER the SDSU game and here were the results:

Colorado State (-4.5) 49

New Mexico 31

and

Penn State (-28) 39

Rutgers 0

While the second play wasn't official, there were many here who likely made it for themselves which I why I post. And winning 7 posts out of 8 is tilting?

You do know people WILL lose at capping. Like baseball players, even if you hit .400 you'll get an out 60% of the time. A loss is completely unremarkable.

Well I got the same exact reaction when I took the Bills ML over the Pats and won that so it's good to see here as well.

Scala, I was on CSU and Penn State last night thanks to your write-ups! 

Unfortunately I'm on the opposite side for this game.  The Bills already lost too much to be relevant in the AFC wild card spot due to strong AFC West play.   The Bengals, on the other hand are still quite in contention in the lowly south, but they essentially control their own destiny.  I backed NYG on Monday because of the Lewis/Dalton suck on Prime Time factor, but I feel like the bounce back factor applies to the Bengals more than the Bills, even if the latter have lost the last 3.

Bengals at home, in a pissed off mentality, in a 1 o'clock forgettable game that no one cares about........  This is Dalton's time to shine.  They're healthy, Eiffert is playing well and will cause match-up problems.  Buffalo is porous vs. the run since switching back to a 3-4, their corners are alright but safety play is suspect.  Also teams coming off a bye are doing terrible this year, in the ~20% ATS range, and Rex Ryan has also proved that he cannot rally his troops after a bye time and time again.

I see the Bengals dominating on both sides of the ball and cruising to an easy win, 27-17

As always, best of luck!

Good stuff as always Scal...

Good luck w pick Scal.   Out of respect for your insight I'll put them in a teaser

Scal 

This game was not on my radar but I've been blindly following and you have made me a ton of coin. I'll be on Bills ML. Bills did look good at rejuvenated Seattle. An effort like that should get it done. Thanks for the pick. Win or lose You are appreciated here. 

I was thinking about taking Buffalo + today now I definatly will ThankSs and good work yesterday 2 of 3  l'll take that any day BOL

We agree to disagree Scla, can't always have the same opinion. Best of luck today, keep up the great work!

Bol brother on it

BOL