Bengals: SB hangover topic is popular

I’m not sure what to make of a Bengals team who incredibly outperformed their expectations by firing on all cylinders, yet stall at bringing guys from that incredible team back. Like how do you not sign Jessie Bates to a new deal?

All that aside, the talking heads seem to think that “fade the Bengals” is a solid strategy this year. Their season win total is 10. 
I agree the Ravens should win 10+ this year, but I’m down on Cleveland and question the Steelers to win more than 8-9 games. That opens the door to … the Bengals finishing first or second in the division lol. 
What do you think? I am wary of fading Joe Burrow and his new cast of pals, although I certainly understand the theory of SB hangovers and catching lightning in a bottle twice.

Out of the first 55 Super Bowl losers, 38 came back to make the playoffs the next season. The 69.1% playoff rate would refute the notion of a “Super Bowl runner-up jinx.”

Of the 17 runners-up that failed to make the playoffs, 11 did not even reach a .500 record -- like the 2003 Raiders. All 11 instances have come since 1989, with the earliest being the 1989 Denver Broncos and the most recent being the 2019 San Francisco 49ers.

So, I am not too worried about the 'jinx' for the SB loser.  I just think the NFL is so dynamic and full of parity now that it will be 2-3 very close games that could go either way during the season that will make or break their playoff chances.

I like Burrow a lot.  He has a lot of the intangibles that you just cannot teach a QB.  But he is also very good from an analytical perspective on the numbers that matter the most on winning games, especially the close games.  You could make a very good case for him as an MVP candidate last year.

I just think that division is going to be so interesting.  The Bengals schedule is also very interesting.  They have Steelers and Dolphins at home  and 4 away games at Dallas, Jets, Baltimore and New Orleans.  If they stumble at the start and get too far behind -- they will have an issue with the closeout portion of the schedule.  The middle part is okay with Atl, CLV (probably w/o Watson), and Carolina.  But they close out after the bye with Pitt, Tenn, KC, CLV (maybe with Watson), TB, NE, Buff, Balt.  That backend is going to be very tough if they do not get out ahead with 4 or 5 wins in their first 6 or 7 games.

I think 10 is very spot on and could hinge either way by a couple of plays in a couple of the games. 

I am not so sold on Balt -- I do not trust LJ to win games.  I think this is a team that can let you down or surprise you.  I do not see them being consistent enough week in and week out to win that division. I could see taking a chance on them if the number was 9. 

the sb hangover pertains mostly on wk 1 of new season where loser is 5w-15 loses.its my automatic bet every year this yr its pitt +6-

CIN was 4-11-1 in the 2020 season which gave them an easy schedule in 2021 and they went 10-7.  Their schedule will be MUCH tougher in 2022 and some regression is a reasonable expectation.

I would double check this.  

According to previous year’s winning % they were tied for 6th toughest schedule. 
According to projected total wins they had the 4th toughest schedule. 

@Raiders22

This analysis rates CIN's 2022 SOS as the third toughest behind LAR and ARZ:

https://eatdrinkandsleepfootball.com/schedule/strength-of-schedule.html

CIN's 2022 last six games:

KC

CLV

@ TB

@ NE

BUF

BAL

4 of the last 6 are at home, but that looks like a tough six-pack.

@Raiders22

 I understand people being leery of LJ but he is 37 - 12 as a starter or there about and while you can not completely throw out last year results he was playing with nagging injuries and a some what depleted roster.  

Correct.  I was referring to the 2021 schedule. It was the 4th and 6th toughest. 

Oh yes. You are correct on all points.  But getting him to throw outside the numbers in crucial games is hard. Teams have figured that out, etc. 

I do not take away from his talent.  He is learning the game more each year.  His mobility will always give him an extra talent no one else has.  
 
But as teams learn to contain him and make him try to throw outside — he has to be coached up in some areas.  Because, yes, the team has a lot of talent and a great coach.  But they will have to be able to win in crunch time.  Jackson just has not shown he can do that yet.  So, to me the team’s talent and Jackson’s talent get them very far and will mostly win all of the winnable games. 

A lot of QBs that rely on running after their first look eventually learn to read defenses and adapt. Cunningham, Vick, etc.  many have done this.  So much of the QB job is a mental thing.  That is one reason so many older QBs continue to play. 
I feel with good coaching Jackson will be able to do this as well.  

Bengals season would completely collapse if either Joe Burrow or Jamarr Chase got injured for the rest of the season.

I am not sure what this means.  Any team would probably collapse if they lose their top QB.  Losing a top WR would hurt somewhat as well.  I don’t think anyone is factoring in unforeseen injuries into their futures bets.  If they happen, they happen — it is the NFL.  
Or maybe I completely missed your point? 

@Raiders22

His point may simply be that a key injury is more likely to aid an "Under" bettor.  Losing Burrow may cost CIN more than 1 or 2 wins, while BAL losing Lamar Jackson could only benefit CIN a maximum of 2 wins.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Exactly, betting an under is mentally easier because all you have to root for is 1-2 big things going wrong. Betting overs often requires at least 3-5 things going right.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Any team that loses a legitimate MVP candidate is going to lose at least 2-3 games extra, more than likely.  Balt losing LJ would only affect CIN total if they play them.  Folks like to say that the Patriots still won 11 games and made the playoffs the year they lost Brady -- these folks never point out that was 5 FEWER wins than the year before. Etc., etc. 

@Sidehatch

 Sure, it is way easier for your under to hit if you lose an MVP candidate QB.  But if that is one of the reasons you are capping your futures bets and what you are relying on to win it -- that is a losing proposition from the start.  Who says they are taking an UNDER bet because they 'think' or 'hope' a team will have a major injury or two?  Maybe folks do -- but, wow that would be weird to me.

Now, if you say in the above example that you think the chances of one or more of the teams that CINN plays having a major injury or two than Cinn -- maybe.  In that case, I would think the odds of one or more of the other 14 teams having injuries could help Cinn hit the OVER -- then I would say that is more likely to affect it because it is more likely to happen than for it to happen just to Cinn.  Simply because there are more teams for it to happen to than just Cinn.  In the above example, you would be relying on just Cinn to have the injuries and none of the teams they play.  So, in that case the odds are more in your favor.  But still a very, very weird way to cap a season total to me.

Explain more why you think there are fewer things you need to go right to hit an UNDER than an OVER?  Why would they not be basically the same things?  Absolutely, if you lose a QB -- then your only hope is a Brady is next up to replace a Bledsoe, etc.  But besides that?  Because I do not think folks are 'EXPECTING and HOPING' for injuries just to hit their futures bet?

Maybe I am wrong.  Maybe there are folks that root for injuries or predict them.

But in the past if I say I think that the Colts or Patriots are gong to win the Super Bowl.  There is an understood parenthetical expression there. (If Manning and/or Brady stays healthy).  No reasonable person holds it against me and says I was wrong if that happens.

Joe Burrow and Jamar chase nuff said. They may not have the same success, but I doubt they regress to anything short of advancing past the 1st round of the playoffs 

I think they’re real contenders for the AFC championship 

Super Bowl losers next season 

team                           week 1                    regular season record

2002 Rams         AF -3, 16-23 loss                7-9 SU, 4-12 ATS

2003 Raiders      AD +3 20-25 loss                4-12 ....3-12-1 ATS

2004 Panthers    HF -3  14-24 loss                7-9.......9-6-1 ATS

2005 Eagles       AF -1  10-14 loss                6-10.....5-11 ATS

2006 Seahawks  AF -5' 24-10 win                10-6.....9-7 ATS

2007 Bears        AD +6 3-14 loss                 7-9......7-9 ATS

2008 Patriots     HF -15 17-10 loss               11-5....9-7 ATS

2009 AZ            HF -6   16-20 loss               10-6...8-7-1 ATS

2010 Colts         AF -1   24-34 loss               10-6...8-7-1 ATS

2011 Steelers    AD +2  7-35 loss                 12-4...7-9 ATS

2012 Patriots     AF -6   34-13 win                12-4...9-6-1 ATS

2013 49ers        HF -4'  34-28 win                12-4...10-5-1 ATS

2014 Broncos     HF -8  31-24 loss                12-4....8-8 ATS

2015 Seahawks  AF-3'  31-34 loss                 10-6...8-7-1 ATS

2016 Panthers    AF-3   20-21 loss                6-10....6-9-1 ATS

2017 Falcons      AF -6' 23-17 loss                 10-6....7-9 ATS

2018 Patriots      HF -6' 27-20 win                 11-5....9-7 ATS

2019 Rams         AF -2' 30-27 win                  9-7....10-6 ATS

2020 49ers         HF -6' 20-24 loss                 6-10....7-9 ATS

2021 Chiefs        HF -5'  33-29 loss               12-5.....8-9 ATS 

2022 Bengals     HF -6'

Average wins the following season.....9.2

Average covers in regular season.....7.5

Week 1 as home favorites......... 2-6 ATS

Week 1 as away favorites..........3-6 ATS

"........" as away dogs...............0-3 ATS

nice stats you know who i have gd luck this season

@Indigo999

 Thank you, excellent post!

@Indigo999

 Great research.  PIT looks like a live dog in week #1 while CIN should be a fan favorite.

From the 2022 Marc Lawrence Playbook. The worst situation for Super Bowl losers since 2000 has been as a non division favorite as they have gone 78-109-6 ATS. Possible situations this year.

1. at NYJ 9/25  -4

2. Miami 9/29  -3.5

@sundance

 Thanks.  Good info.

This is what I have running this through killersports....this comes with a caveat is I couldn't siphon out teams that played three or more playoff games that didn't make it to the Super Bowl, which would include conference final losers (49ers and Chiefs this past season).  These situations were before week 13, as I found these were not very predictive at the end of the season.

Teams that played three or more playoff games the previous season ending with a loss....49ers, Chiefs and Bengals

Home divisional favorites.....20-34-1 ATS

Away divisional favorites......25-17 ATS

Home non-divisional favorites...57-60 ATS

Away non-divisional favorites...30-41-3 ATS

Also, teams since 2002 that won 5 or 6 divisional games the season prior have been 74-100 ATS as home divisional favorites the next season before week 13.......

AND 24-48-2 ATS (-3.52), 36-37-1 straight  up (+0.49) if the home favorite divisional game line was -6 or less.....average line/total -4/44.1, average score 22-21.5 

Teams qualifying in 2022......Bills, Titans, Chiefs, Cowboys

And, the reciprocal of that,....teams that won 0 or 1 in division games  last season as away divisional dogs of 6 or less...48-29 ATS before week 13.

Jaguars, Giants, Jets, Broncos, Ravens

@usarmy69-71

 Couldn't agree more. Tomlin is an absurd 41-23-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog. Tomlin also is 29-19-1 ATS and 23-26 straight up (SU) as a road underdog in his career.