Back after all these years. Storytime and current picks inside.

Yes you haven't seen me around since 2009 or so. I used to live in Washington State where betting is legal then moved to Kentucky where it was illegal (due to corrupt horse racing and lotto industry). We finally have it legal here now so I am back at it.

I started off the NFL season going 10-0 which I chalked up to re-beginners luck but it built my bank up nicely. Since then I have tinkered with small parlay bets and NFL bets gaining a little with wins and losses.

Here is what I have going on for the next week of NFL betting. Last night I went 1-3 winning an outright bet and losing two parlays.

*Two leg parlay Raiders -3 and Dolphins/Eagles Under 52

Both the raiders and bears are garbo but Fields is OUT and the Raiders back up is pretty capable I will take them over a really bad team without their star running ba...I mean quarterback. Eagles D will slow down and beat up the speedster Dolphins enough for the under to hit.

*Two leg parlay Chargers at Chiefs pick CHARGERS to win and OVER 50.5

Herbert has something to prove after his performance last game and I believe this will be the game we find out the Chiefs are vastly over valued with their two man show of Mahomes and Kelce. Mahomes is starting to throw picks and Kelce is showing to be injury prone as well. 

I will have more picks soon let me know what you think. Best of luck to you all. Cheers!

 welcome back 

stink

Welcome back  

I would expect a bounce back performance from Herbert at Arrowhead this weekend....he was missing targets all over the place vs. Dallas.... Chargers lost at KC last year but had won their previous two trips.  They are 5-1 ATS last six vs KC, 3-0 ATS last 3 trips.  

The vastly over valued two man show is the same two man show they won the Super Bowl with last year...Kelce is a year older, that's about it....efficiency wise, this is by far the best defense KC has had with Mahomes....dvoa is 5th overall / 6th offensive / 9th defensive / 4th ST.  

Kelce goes out then they are in trouble but you're not looking at anything different than last year.  4 of Mahomes' 5 picks on the year have occurred in 3 different nationally televised prime time games.   That will skew the perception of "Mahomes throwing picks" right there.  

@kcblitzkrieg

 Great points. However, Kelce's injuries are mounting up this year and this team is in no way performing on the same level as last year. They were pretty close to losing to the Jets with Zack Wilson matching Mahomes performance. Their latest games were mostly unimpressive showing Mahomes is not gelling at all with his WR's.  17-9, 23-20 (to the Jets??) and 27-20 to the Vikings does not a dominating team make.

Considering the Chargers have vastly better weapons then both the Jets and the Vikings I think they have a decent chance at the upset here as the public piles into the over valued Chiefs with their two man show. Also how long will this two man show be successful as the weeks go on and the tape is watched? You can only have so many plays for one player.

I completely agree with this.  Not sure why DC's are so hesitant to implement a scheme to A) jam Kelce at the line to mess up his timing, and/or B) double team him.  Take Kelce out of picture and KC is a mostly average team, at least temporarily, as it is clear Pat doesn't fully trust any of his other receivers yet.

Not to mention their heavy reliance on Kelce is clearly taking its toll on his body. They would love to give the guy a break but their WR team is full of butter fingers. Mahomes is the man, Kelce is the man but DC actually watch tape and scheme. I saw the Colts shut down Derrick Henry at his prime once when they were fully relying on him using an average D line. It's only a matter of time and I think this next game the time runs out.

You remember anybody from 2009 

@ToddC

 I see a few names but it's been a long time. I enjoy anyone's take as I almost always pick up a point I never considered or some breaking news on injury/weather etc. I'm happy to be back in the community and talking bets with all of you again.

Cheers!

This is true....eliminate Kelce and the timing and spacing of Andy's system for the WRs is wrecked.  Kelce is 34 years old.  Gronk is same age and we think of him as an old man....Kelce showed signs of slowing down last season, injury bug for Mr. Pfizer has crept up on him but he is still battling.  

To your other point, Big Lou Anarumo is the one DC that does exactly what you describe.  Bengals have made it a point to shut him down and the end results have been very favorable to the Bengals winning those games.