Here is my opinion on touts. Also, I will preface this by telling you I used to date a girl that used to date a dude that was in the sports information industry, and she confirmed everything we already thought.
1) they recycle company names, and many times are calling you from the same location
2) they give opposite sides of games to players intentionally, and completely manipulate their records, and juice
3) once a player goes bust, or gives up on using them, they will change phone numbers and try them again figuring the gambling addiction will overcome any good sense
4) numerous other scummy stories she told me, which just preyed on people's greed and addictions.
Having said that, I do believe there are some honest ones, but ultimately, the BEST OF THE BEST in the betting world, typically hit around 60%....sometimes they hit better than that in the short term........but rarely does it not even out over time......slightly above 60% is considered amazing in this racket.
I am not talking about a person who bets 1 game a week and goes 11-5 on the season, this is not a survivor pool we're talking about......I mean real hardened everyday garden variety degenerates.......
So, the thing I always have a hard time wrapping my head around, is why would I pay a person for an outcome that is so close to a 50/50 chance anyway? Plus, for me, I just don't trust some people's assessments. Numbers and analytics are fine and useful, but I have played these sports, competitively, most of my life, and I don't think the analytics guy that can't throw a football 30 yards, can't hit a curveball, or that I would shut out in basketball, should be the end-all decision maker when it comes to athletic decisions.........I trust my eye test more than his (or hers)
I get emails, with free picks, etc, like I am sure most of you do.........and one company in particular offered me a free trial, so I took it. It was actually $1, for a full week of picks, which I didn't bet at all, but the guy did win around 65% in his defense...........BUT.......one of his picks was DIRECTLY AGAINST one of my favorite picks.....and then what am I supposed to do? The guy loved Carolina 2 weeks ago home vs Arizona, and I loved the Cards in that game. I disagreed with everything he was writing about it. My point is not that I was right, but how would you handle betting on something you disagree with the tout about, and then you end up being right? How can you fully trust it ever again? You are supposed to commit to these touts I would imagine, and do everything they tell you. I cannot be your sports cuck.
Also, this is really best treated as a hobby in my opinion, not a financial investment technique. Betting should only be with risk capital, and not with a part of your retirement portfolio. So if you have some dude telling you exactly what to do......where is the fun and satisfaction and enjoyment in the hobby?
TL;DR: Just nope. You can do bad all by yourself.
Great post.
I wouldnt pay for anyone's picks, including my own.
Nobody is 60%+ lifetime. Including me.
Picks are only picks. Its like needing transportation to work and asking "should I buy a car engine?". What about the rest of the car? Even with picks, you will lose without a staking strategy, without multiple outs to get best lines, without the ability to understand what line to actually bet at what price etc. This is the rest of the car. Picks (even winning ones) can still make you a loser.
If I was able to pick winners all the time.......why would I NEED TO SELL THEM??
I can make a FORTUNE just betting on my own, and would have NO need to sell them, and have people annoying me to give them winners.
Like mind readers and fortune tellers, why would they need you, if they can see the future. Just use your common sense.....THEIR PRAYING ON YOU!!
Freudian slip.
Most people who say they pray, also prey.
I worked for a tout in the early 2000s before I even knew what they were. Thought they really had intelligence to help people, a few weeks into it I could barely sleep. The tout industry isn't even about picking winners, because they make even more money from people after they've given losers and they are stuck. Some give out both sides of a game so at least 50% of the players are happy.
I'm not saying there aren't people out there that have some skills handicapping games, but they are few and far between. My experience was also that people don't even take the advice, they would combine with their own thoughts and bet other game. Inside information, etc...is absolute wolf tickets. They have pre-canned stories lines to get you to bite....I remember one a big "closer" would use.... being aware of a fight between players in practice day before college basketball game...guys could barely stand to be around each other, etc. Seriously, have you ever been pitched by one of these guys. They act like they have ants in their pants while being on the best YAY you've even laid nostrils on. Go ahead what's your credit card number? I'll have my office call ya right back.
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