Are Parlays for Suckers?

thanks snook I will take that into consideration next time.  I did notice that betting baltys ML seemed to pay more than I expected when combined with the over and mondays game so I will have to look deeper into my bets.  If you had a game that you were 90% on. like I said detroit vs denver last week.  what do you do with that virtual lock?

 

Parlays (and teasers) are the reason books keep cleaning out clowns like you. With 10+ years of betting, you'd think you would've learned at least something by now...

thanks Zona,  how are how are those herpes treatin ya.  DOnt sweat it. doctor drew says its nothing more than an incurable rash so dont over react

Rules to win parlays... don't bet more than 3 games if you really want to win. Try to mix college and NFL most of the time on a parlay. If you pick more than 3 add totals to your picks. Like if it's a 10 gamer pick 5 NFL or NCAA games or mix them and pick 5 totals for either sport. If it's less than 10 just drop it down and mix it up. Trust me parlays pay when you put in the work. All niter staring at numbers. Record games and watch nfl replay, watch everything sports. Take notes when your watching games.

Look for info on the internet. The info here on covers gives me an edge all the time. I went 6-1 this weekend all because of this site. COVERS Listen to sports radio tons of squares are on tv and sports radio. They are fun for entertainment but are clueless when it come to sports gambling. Sometimes you get lucky and find an edge. I have been doing this for 10 years too and have hit hundreds of parlays. I am not a pro capper but i know i'm a pretty good amateur one.

thank you for making this thread and addressing this issue. 

I too been a sucker for parlay.  The odds payout has hidden my hindsight and sucked me in for the lose.  If 6 to 1 odds, I always thought that all I needed to do is to hit 1 out of 6 to be even.  If I only play 1 card a week, that is 6 weeks into the season with minimum action but maximum fun. 

Thank you bigniner for doing that math however, let me requestion that math. 

If you play a 3 teamer paying 6 to 1 with a $100 bet, that would be $100 wagering for that week to win $600. 

However, your system of play, although I agreed on the concept behind it to be a bad azz one but by the last leg, you are wagering $200 house money to win $400 total and not $800.

game a, you win... +100
game b, you win ...+100
game c, you take (win a) + (win b) to win $200 more for a total win of such week at +400. 

If lose on game c, you lose nothing and a free ride. 

Basing it upon your model, if you win game a and b and risking $400 to win $800, wouldn't that mean you are using $200 extra of your own money (200+200=400) for game c?  Wouldn't that be $100 more from your bankroll for such week?

I do see your concept on betting single game as your first leg of your parlay.   Wagering the same amount but your explanation makes more sense. 

-$100 parlay on 3 teams, if first leg loses, you lose $100
-$100 straight bet on first leg, if lose, you lose $100 however, most parlay's killers are not happening on the first leg.  If you win first leg, you get a free ride on second leg with $100 bookie money.  If lose, you are even for the week instead of losing out on $100 had you decided to play a 3 teamer. 

Thanks for the read.  I'm kinda slow in all of this and now it has opened up my eyes to strategy in how to get action without losing.  Much appreciated....

Googleme, I normally would have hedged with Pitt in that situation but when i placed the straigtht wager on Baltimore for $1000 I was sure my parlay was going down.  I got really lucky yesterday with seattle and AZ covering. When the parlay hit, and i already had the straight wager on balt I just said fuck it, let it ride on the ravens.  9 times out of 10 I would have lost the last game in this situation. 

 

The bottom line is that in both bets you are betting 3 teams and risking $100 of your own money.

one pays $600.....one pays $800

 

What do you think is the way to go?

parlays = money in the bank.

i screen shot all my winning parlay tickets... for my personal pref.  check them out here: winning!!!!

Anybody who tries to convince you parlays are the way to go, doesn't know the first thing about sports betting.

And I have news for you...if you have done well...expect an adjustment in the future...some regression towards the mean.

BigNiner....  Whether you believe in parlays or not, the real bottom line is you don't know how to do math!  You made a couple of huge errors in your calculations.

You need to start with the same amount on both sides;  you can't start with 100 and 110.  And you're dropping the starting amount from the parlay total (600) and including it in the flat bet total (800).  Also, you're not including juice correctly in you flat bet totals.

The real numbers, using all games at -110, and I'm rounding the cents....

3 team parlay starting amount of 110 pays 660.  So you end up with 770.

3 flat bets starting with 110 are...  110+100=210.  210+191=401.  401+365=765.  So you end up with only 765.

The difference is $5 NOT $200 and its favorable towards the parlay.  Some of that $5 is the rounding I did, so basically they are the same payout for the same about.

As long as you're getting 6-1 on a 3 teamer, the odds are fine.  They usually only start screwing you when you get into 4 and plus team parlays....

 

"Doesn't know the first thing about sports betting."

The risk involved in linking games together;  your math doesn't support it.  And regression towards the mean??  You might as well say "if you win a bunch of flat bets you'll then regress by losing a bunch of flat bets" because its the same thing.  If you believe that then you shouldn't gamble at all....

 

Re-read the oringinal post. I accounted for the initial $10 and all subsequent juice amounts are accounted for as well. You're defelecting from the practiciality of the issue.

Yes or no?

Is betting parlays consistently, a good way to make money?

And let's use your $765 number

Why would ANYONE make a bet to win $600 when they can essentially can make the same bet to win $765 ?

I did read it.  You end up with 600 vs. 800 which is completely wrong...

There isn't a Yes or No answer to that.  It depends on how much you have, and how much you're trying/hoping to make.

The reason the books want people to parlay is simple.  If a guy has $330 and he bets $110 on three games, he has to lose all three for them to get the 330.  He still makes money if he only loses one.  With the parlay he can hit two of three and they get it all;  of course they're risking almost 2 grand that the guy can't hit all three.

My opinion....  If I risk 110 of my 330 on a parlay, it makes sense.  If I throw everything on 1 parlay, then I'm taking too much risk.  So I mostly bet flat, with small amounts on parlays if I feel like taking an extra shot.

bigniner, your math is all wrong. it's basically the same payout when comparing the -110 vig

To compare a 3 team parley with 3 straight (-110) wagers. If you bet 110 to win 100 on the first game you should also play $110 on the Parley to win $660 which totals $770 ($110 wager and $660 win)

wagering $400 at -110 on the 3rd game wins $364 for a total of $764

Here you go again;  you're not getting the math. 

Its not a bet to make 600 vs. 765, its a bet to make the same amount with either the parlay or the 3 flat bets.  Either way, you start out with $110 and end up with roughly $765.  That's the POINT;  the parlay odds aren't screwing you if you get 6-1 on a 3-teamer.  Now if you go to 4-teamers (often at 10-1) or 5 etc. you probably are getting screwed because most books stop giving you true odds.....

when I do multiple parlays/teasers, I never include the same team, because if that team loses, then you're screwed on all your bets.

Good luck... actually you don't need that, off of the bets I've been seeing in this thread, NICE JOB!

who you got tonight? Bears?

Great advice i completely forgot to say that.I had to lear that the hard way. I remember when i 1st started i must have lost over 150 parlays by one damn game in one NFL NCAA season. When i 1st started betting parlays that would kill me every time. Buy a 6,7,8,9, 10 gamer and the same team loses it's sever depression and lots of alcohol after. 

Googleme,

Showing a long term profit at sports betting is not about the type of bets you place, it is about consistently beating the odds. The answer to your question is simple: Parlays are for suckers when the bettor is taking odds less than the 'true odds' of the parlay hitting.
Parlays multiply the juice on bad value bets but by the same token multiply the edge on good value bets. Take a look at the examples below:

Team A's true odds of covering a spread are 4/6 (-150) but you can bet them at even money (+100), the same is true of Team B.

By parlaying the two together you now get odds of +300 on a bet where the true odds are roughly +178.

Team C's true odds of covering a spread are 6/4 (+150), again you are getting even money. By parlaying Team A with Team C you are getting +300 on a bet with 'true odds' of just over +310. In this case the value aquired by backing Team A is to an extent cancelled out by the bad vig you pay on Team C.

Now imagine Team C and Team D both are +150 true odds and you are getting evens on them. You are now getting +300 on a bet where the true odds are +525. By parlaying the bad value together it is multiplying and making your bet even more horrible.

These examples are quite extreme but hopefully you get the picture.
The hard part is being able to identify the 'true odds' of a given game. Value is in the eye of the beholder and the correct answer will never be know even after the game has been played. To illustrate this, imagine I had offered you Even money on the Saints or the Rams on the Money Line when they played last week. If you had taken the Saints you would have had a fantastic value bet that would ultimately have been a loser.
The concept of handicapping is to set the line where there is an equal chance of each outcome and then add in the juice or vig (this is the house edge so to speak). Parlays are often described as being for suckers as it assumed that the house always has an edge and by multiplying this edge you are increasing it for him.

Hope this helps

Ps. If as bigniner implies you are getting pre determined odds for your parlays, you are almost certainly being even more ripped off, move books

ITS SIMPLE. IF YOU CAN HANDICAP AT 53%- 55% YOU CAN BE RICH BETTING ONE GAME AT A TIME. PUT THAT WINNING % IN TO PARLAYS YOU WILL BE

Like I said before, straight bets favors the betters more than the house. 

scenario 1,
$100 parlay 3 teams to win $500+$100 of your own money back. 
If first leg wins and 2nd or third leg lose, you lose $100 of your own money. 

Scenario 2,
$100 straight bet on first leg, if lose, you would have lost the scenario 1 parlay anyway so no problem here.  However, if you win, you would be able to bet for free on the 2nd leg if you take your initial $100 back and -110 to bet on leg 2. 

Both scenarios carries a $100 wager but the second one gives you a chance to play for free on the second leg and you will still have action. 

Knowing that parlays are for suckers and we often loses our second or third leg, scenario carries a better value for the bettors. 

If you are planning to bet 3 games which plays at the same time then my explanation does not follows.  If the games are scattered, it gives you flexibility to come out even or make some chump change like if you win first leg and second leg, you can bank some of that money and ride 3rd leg for free.  Most can not even hit a 3 teamer parlay so this system here works best for guys like myself. 

It is all about making positive money at the end of the day, regardless to which styles you want to take on.  We have choices but I'm picking the smartest choice to beat the bookie.