Public perception: Buffalo comes in off an
upset win at Arizona in overtime, but is still receiving lukewarm support as a
favorite. The Titans upset the Steelers but aren't getting too much love
despite getting more than a field goal. The public still doesn't know what to
do with these two teams.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were high on the
Bills in over/unders and other future bets before the season, and are starting
to see some hope as they're tied atop the AFC East (all four teams are 3-3, so
it's up for grabs).
Tuley's
take: I want to make a case for the dog, but I'm still smarting over
the last time I took them two weeks ago at Minnesota (they lost 30-7). The
Bills have won their last three games playing against what I consider non-elite
teams (Chiefs, Browns, Cardinals) while being blown out by the Patriots and
49ers. So I'd say the Bills are one of the best mediocre teams right now. The
pick: Pass.
Public perception: Buffalo comes in off an
upset win at Arizona in overtime, but is still receiving lukewarm support as a
favorite. The Titans upset the Steelers but aren't getting too much love
despite getting more than a field goal. The public still doesn't know what to
do with these two teams.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were high on the
Bills in over/unders and other future bets before the season, and are starting
to see some hope as they're tied atop the AFC East (all four teams are 3-3, so
it's up for grabs).
Tuley's
take: I want to make a case for the dog, but I'm still smarting over
the last time I took them two weeks ago at Minnesota (they lost 30-7). The
Bills have won their last three games playing against what I consider non-elite
teams (Chiefs, Browns, Cardinals) while being blown out by the Patriots and
49ers. So I'd say the Bills are one of the best mediocre teams right now. The
pick: Pass.
Matchup: Tennessee Titans
at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills minus-3.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 54 percent
picked Bills
Public perception: Buffalo comes in off an
upset win at Arizona in overtime, but is still receiving lukewarm support as a
favorite. The Titans upset the Steelers but aren't getting too much love
despite getting more than a field goal. The public still doesn't know what to
do with these two teams.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were high on the
Bills in over/unders and other future bets before the season, and are starting
to see some hope as they're tied atop the AFC East (all four teams are 3-3, so
it's up for grabs).
Tuley's take: I want to make a case for the dog,
but I'm still smarting over the last time I took them two weeks ago at
Minnesota (they lost 30-7). The Bills have won their last three games playing
against what I consider non-elite teams (Chiefs, Browns, Cardinals) while being
blown out by the Patriots and 49ers. So I'd say the Bills are one of the best
mediocre teams right now. The pick: Pass.
Matchup: Tennessee Titans
at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Bills minus-3.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 54 percent
picked Bills
Public perception: Buffalo comes in off an
upset win at Arizona in overtime, but is still receiving lukewarm support as a
favorite. The Titans upset the Steelers but aren't getting too much love
despite getting more than a field goal. The public still doesn't know what to
do with these two teams.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys were high on the
Bills in over/unders and other future bets before the season, and are starting
to see some hope as they're tied atop the AFC East (all four teams are 3-3, so
it's up for grabs).
Tuley's take: I want to make a case for the dog,
but I'm still smarting over the last time I took them two weeks ago at
Minnesota (they lost 30-7). The Bills have won their last three games playing
against what I consider non-elite teams (Chiefs, Browns, Cardinals) while being
blown out by the Patriots and 49ers. So I'd say the Bills are one of the best
mediocre teams right now. The pick: Pass.
Matchup: Cleveland Browns
and Indianapolis
Colts
Spread: Colts minus-2.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 58 percent
picked Colts
Public perception: The public wants to back Andrew Luck
and the Colts so much that even Indy's 35-9 blowout loss to the Jets won't
deter them. Meanwhile, the Browns are not a popular bet, even though they
continue to exceed expectations.
Wiseguys' view: Every site that monitors betting
patterns has the public squarely on the Colts in regard to either the number of
people picking them and/or the ticket count, yet this number has dropped from 3
to 2.5. That tells you the sharps and bigger bettors are on the dog.
Tuley's take: What do the Browns have to do to
get more support? They covered on the road against the Ravens, they had the
Giants on the ropes before losing the cover late in that game two weeks ago,
then they ran over the Bengals last week. Trent Richardson
has been upgraded to probable; he should have a huge game if he plays. The
pick: Browns.
Matchup: Cleveland Browns
and Indianapolis
Colts
Spread: Colts minus-2.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 58 percent
picked Colts
Public perception: The public wants to back Andrew Luck
and the Colts so much that even Indy's 35-9 blowout loss to the Jets won't
deter them. Meanwhile, the Browns are not a popular bet, even though they
continue to exceed expectations.
Wiseguys' view: Every site that monitors betting
patterns has the public squarely on the Colts in regard to either the number of
people picking them and/or the ticket count, yet this number has dropped from 3
to 2.5. That tells you the sharps and bigger bettors are on the dog.
Tuley's take: What do the Browns have to do to
get more support? They covered on the road against the Ravens, they had the
Giants on the ropes before losing the cover late in that game two weeks ago,
then they ran over the Bengals last week. Trent Richardson
has been upgraded to probable; he should have a huge game if he plays. The
pick: Browns.
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans
Spread: Texans minus-6.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 55 percent
picked Ravens
Public perception: The public is losing faith
in the Texans after they failed to cover against the Jets, then lost outright
to the Packers. That appears to outweigh the fact that the Ravens have failed
to cover three straight (against the Browns, Chiefs and Cowboys), though they
keep winning.
Wiseguys' view: You'll find a difference of
opinion here from the sharps; those on the Texans (or feeling the Ravens are
racking up too many injuries) are happy to lay less than a touchdown, while
those thinking the Ravens are still one of the Super Bowl contenders think
they're getting plenty of points.
Tuley's take: Put me in the latter camp. The
Ravens are 5-1 and know how to win. They won't have Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb,
but they haven't been winning with defense as much as in the past anyway. I've
been fading the Texans with success the past two weeks, because I felt they
were content to grind out wins (which certainly was the case against the Jets,
though they never got the chance against the Packers). The pick: Ravens.
Matchup: Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans
Spread: Texans minus-6.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 55 percent
picked Ravens
Public perception: The public is losing faith
in the Texans after they failed to cover against the Jets, then lost outright
to the Packers. That appears to outweigh the fact that the Ravens have failed
to cover three straight (against the Browns, Chiefs and Cowboys), though they
keep winning.
Wiseguys' view: You'll find a difference of
opinion here from the sharps; those on the Texans (or feeling the Ravens are
racking up too many injuries) are happy to lay less than a touchdown, while
those thinking the Ravens are still one of the Super Bowl contenders think
they're getting plenty of points.
Tuley's take: Put me in the latter camp. The
Ravens are 5-1 and know how to win. They won't have Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb,
but they haven't been winning with defense as much as in the past anyway. I've
been fading the Texans with success the past two weeks, because I felt they
were content to grind out wins (which certainly was the case against the Jets,
though they never got the chance against the Packers). The pick: Ravens.
Matchup: Green Bay
Packers at St. Louis Rams
Spread: Packers minus-5.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 72 percent
picked Packers
Public perception: The Packers are perhaps
the most public of the public teams, so there's no surprise they're loading up
on them off their upset of the Texans.
Wiseguys' view: As stated, home dogs are 21-11 ATS
this year and the Rams are 3-0 in this spot. The sharps are likely to grab the
plus-6 every time it pops up (though I sometimes wonder why the dog bettors
don't just wait for the public to steam it even higher).
Tuley's take: I love me some home dogs, and
they've been a big part of my success so far this season. However, I just don't
feel I'm getting enough points here. Besides, after a slow start the Packers
look as if they might be ready to go on a roll. I'm not sure I want to jump in
front of that train. The pick: Pass.
Matchup: Green Bay
Packers at St. Louis Rams
Spread: Packers minus-5.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 72 percent
picked Packers
Public perception: The Packers are perhaps
the most public of the public teams, so there's no surprise they're loading up
on them off their upset of the Texans.
Wiseguys' view: As stated, home dogs are 21-11 ATS
this year and the Rams are 3-0 in this spot. The sharps are likely to grab the
plus-6 every time it pops up (though I sometimes wonder why the dog bettors
don't just wait for the public to steam it even higher).
Tuley's take: I love me some home dogs, and
they've been a big part of my success so far this season. However, I just don't
feel I'm getting enough points here. Besides, after a slow start the Packers
look as if they might be ready to go on a roll. I'm not sure I want to jump in
front of that train. The pick: Pass.
Matchup: Dallas Cowboys
at Carolina
Panthers
Spread: Cowboys minus-2 ?Public
consensus pick: 64 percent
picked Cowboys
Public perception: The Panthers have been
inconsistent, so naturally the public lands on America's Team (do we still call
them that?) even though they've been just as inconsistent.
Wiseguys' view: We again see the public on the
favorite while the line drops, so the wiseguys are taking a little bit of the
dog (but not a major move).
Tuley's take: I love me some home dogs (did I
already say that?), but again we have a number that seems short. If I thought
the Carolina team that nearly knocked off the Falcons on the road was going to
show up, I'd be on them, but I have no such confidence. The pick: Pass.
Matchup: Dallas Cowboys
at Carolina
Panthers
Spread: Cowboys minus-2 ?Public
consensus pick: 64 percent
picked Cowboys
Public perception: The Panthers have been
inconsistent, so naturally the public lands on America's Team (do we still call
them that?) even though they've been just as inconsistent.
Wiseguys' view: We again see the public on the
favorite while the line drops, so the wiseguys are taking a little bit of the
dog (but not a major move).
Tuley's take: I love me some home dogs (did I
already say that?), but again we have a number that seems short. If I thought
the Carolina team that nearly knocked off the Falcons on the road was going to
show up, I'd be on them, but I have no such confidence. The pick: Pass.
Matchup: Washington
Redskins at New York Giants
Spread: Giants minus-6 ?Public consensus
pick: 51 percent
picked Redskins
Public perception: You would think the public
would be all over the favored Giants after their 26-3 whipping of the 49ers.
Nope. Meanwhile, the legend of RG3 grows. He was doubtful most of last week,
then showed up and ran (and passed) the Redskins over the Vikings. The public
loves a story like that.
Wiseguys' view: This line was as high as minus-7
last Monday and has been steadily bet down, but it's not all public money.
Tuley's take: Despite going 0-2 last week with
chalk, I'll try this again. This was a game that I should have listed as a play
in the Bettors' Poll; our power ratings have the Giants six points better than
the Redskins even before home-field advantage is factored in (though we
acknowledge the Giants don't have too much of one and usually play better on
the road). Still, anything under a touchdown looks like value. The pick:
Giants.
Matchup: Washington
Redskins at New York Giants
Spread: Giants minus-6 ?Public consensus
pick: 51 percent
picked Redskins
Public perception: You would think the public
would be all over the favored Giants after their 26-3 whipping of the 49ers.
Nope. Meanwhile, the legend of RG3 grows. He was doubtful most of last week,
then showed up and ran (and passed) the Redskins over the Vikings. The public
loves a story like that.
Wiseguys' view: This line was as high as minus-7
last Monday and has been steadily bet down, but it's not all public money.
Tuley's take: Despite going 0-2 last week with
chalk, I'll try this again. This was a game that I should have listed as a play
in the Bettors' Poll; our power ratings have the Giants six points better than
the Redskins even before home-field advantage is factored in (though we
acknowledge the Giants don't have too much of one and usually play better on
the road). Still, anything under a touchdown looks like value. The pick:
Giants.
Matchup: New Orleans
Saints at Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
Spread: Saints minus-2.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 70 percent
picked Saints
Public perception: The Saints' prime-time
rally against the Chargers two weeks ago has people believing again. Plus, the
Buccaneers are just not a sexy team that the public is going to fawn over.
Wiseguys' view: This is another case where I think
that if the sharps/dog players would stay away, the public would bet it to a
higher number. The Saints usually struggle in outdoor games.
Tuley's take: Here's yet another home dog I
would consider if the line was where I think it should be. I won't be betting
it out of pocket, but the play has to be on the short favorite. The pick: Saints.
Matchup: New Orleans
Saints at Tampa Bay
Buccaneers
Spread: Saints minus-2.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 70 percent
picked Saints
Public perception: The Saints' prime-time
rally against the Chargers two weeks ago has people believing again. Plus, the
Buccaneers are just not a sexy team that the public is going to fawn over.
Wiseguys' view: This is another case where I think
that if the sharps/dog players would stay away, the public would bet it to a
higher number. The Saints usually struggle in outdoor games.
Tuley's take: Here's yet another home dog I
would consider if the line was where I think it should be. I won't be betting
it out of pocket, but the play has to be on the short favorite. The pick: Saints.
Matchup: New York Jets
at New England
Patriots
Spread: Patriots minus-10.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 54 percent
picked Jets
Public perception: I'm not sure if it's the
fact that they blew out the Colts 35-9 last week or that the public is tired of
laying too many points, but they're backing the Jets here getting double
digits.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also know it's not wise
to lay double digits in the NFL, even though that's one of the rare underdog
trends performing under .500 this year at 3-4 ATS.
Tuley's take: While that stat is true, it's also
true that underdogs of more than seven points are 12-5 (70.6 percent). But this
is more than just about the numbers. The Jets have quietly (or as quietly as
any team can do anything in the media center of New York) been playing better,
with their point-spread cover against the Texans and blowout of the Colts.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have underperformed. This game is for at least a share
of the AFC lead, and I expect the Patriots to win, but the Jets will put up a
fight. The pick: Jets.
Matchup: New York Jets
at New England
Patriots
Spread: Patriots minus-10.5 ?Public
consensus pick: 54 percent
picked Jets
Public perception: I'm not sure if it's the
fact that they blew out the Colts 35-9 last week or that the public is tired of
laying too many points, but they're backing the Jets here getting double
digits.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps also know it's not wise
to lay double digits in the NFL, even though that's one of the rare underdog
trends performing under .500 this year at 3-4 ATS.
Tuley's take: While that stat is true, it's also
true that underdogs of more than seven points are 12-5 (70.6 percent). But this
is more than just about the numbers. The Jets have quietly (or as quietly as
any team can do anything in the media center of New York) been playing better,
with their point-spread cover against the Texans and blowout of the Colts.
Meanwhile, the Patriots have underperformed. This game is for at least a share
of the AFC lead, and I expect the Patriots to win, but the Jets will put up a
fight. The pick: Jets.
Matchup: Jacksonville
Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
Spread: Raiders minus-4 ?Public
consensus pick: 65 percent
picked Raiders
Public perception: Teams coming off a bye are
5-1 ATS this year, but that still doesn't get the public looking favorably at
the Jaguars. The public saw how the Raiders probably should have beaten the
Falcons last week, so they're solidly on them now.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split here. The
Raiders look like the play, but losing teams coming off a bye are always a
popular play.
Tuley's take: I'll be staying away, but again
I'll defer to the Bettors' Poll, which had the Raiders rated five points
against the Jags even before home-field advantage was added in. Please note
that if I'm saying here that I think the value is on the favorite, that doesn't
mean that I'm betting it myself -- though I'll definitely have the Raiders on
all of my SU contest plays (where I try to pick live dogs). The pick:
Raiders
Matchup: Jacksonville
Jaguars at Oakland Raiders
Spread: Raiders minus-4 ?Public
consensus pick: 65 percent
picked Raiders
Public perception: Teams coming off a bye are
5-1 ATS this year, but that still doesn't get the public looking favorably at
the Jaguars. The public saw how the Raiders probably should have beaten the
Falcons last week, so they're solidly on them now.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps are split here. The
Raiders look like the play, but losing teams coming off a bye are always a
popular play.
Tuley's take: I'll be staying away, but again
I'll defer to the Bettors' Poll, which had the Raiders rated five points
against the Jags even before home-field advantage was added in. Please note
that if I'm saying here that I think the value is on the favorite, that doesn't
mean that I'm betting it myself -- though I'll definitely have the Raiders on
all of my SU contest plays (where I try to pick live dogs). The pick:
Raiders
Matchup: Pittsburgh
Steelers at Cincinnati
Bengals
Spread: Steelers minus-1.5 ?Public consensus
pick: 66 percent
picked Steelers
Public perception: Steelers lose to the
Titans. Bengals lose to the Browns. Public loads up on the Steelers? Hmm, OK. I
don't get why the public is backing the Steelers (again) after failing to cover
their last three games, but they are.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps haven't been fooled and
have bet this down from 2.5 to 1.5.
Tuley's take: The Bengals are also struggling,
coming off back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Browns, but this is a key
divisional game at home. Obviously both want to win (and need to win if they're
going to catch the Ravens). This is definitely a lukewarm pick at the low
number, but I have to side with the home dog in this case. The pick:
Bengals.
Matchup: Pittsburgh
Steelers at Cincinnati
Bengals
Spread: Steelers minus-1.5 ?Public consensus
pick: 66 percent
picked Steelers
Public perception: Steelers lose to the
Titans. Bengals lose to the Browns. Public loads up on the Steelers? Hmm, OK. I
don't get why the public is backing the Steelers (again) after failing to cover
their last three games, but they are.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps haven't been fooled and
have bet this down from 2.5 to 1.5.
Tuley's take: The Bengals are also struggling,
coming off back-to-back losses to the Dolphins and Browns, but this is a key
divisional game at home. Obviously both want to win (and need to win if they're
going to catch the Ravens). This is definitely a lukewarm pick at the low
number, but I have to side with the home dog in this case. The pick:
Bengals.
Matchup: Detroit Lions
at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bears minus-6 ?Public consensus
pick: 53 percent
picked Bears
Public perception: The Bears are 4-1 and have
been impressive in winning and covering their last three since suffering their
only loss at Green Bay. But the public is also supporting Matthew Stafford,
Calvin Johnson
& Co. coming off their upset win over the Eagles.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys are also split on
this one; arguments can be made for both sides, especially where the spread is
concerned.
Tuley's take: This game should be a shootout (I haven't picked totals in this column, but if I did, I'd be looking at more than 47 points). In a back-and-forth game, this could certainly come down to a late field goal or a deciding touchdown where the trailing team is down by four and scores a touchdown to win by three. The pick: Lions.
Matchup: Detroit Lions
at Chicago Bears
Spread: Bears minus-6 ?Public consensus
pick: 53 percent
picked Bears
Public perception: The Bears are 4-1 and have
been impressive in winning and covering their last three since suffering their
only loss at Green Bay. But the public is also supporting Matthew Stafford,
Calvin Johnson
& Co. coming off their upset win over the Eagles.
Wiseguys' view: The wiseguys are also split on
this one; arguments can be made for both sides, especially where the spread is
concerned.
Tuley's take: This game should be a shootout (I haven't picked totals in this column, but if I did, I'd be looking at more than 47 points). In a back-and-forth game, this could certainly come down to a late field goal or a deciding touchdown where the trailing team is down by four and scores a touchdown to win by three. The pick: Lions.
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