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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Legend
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Posted: #7051

cool  Analysis only...these are NOT my posted bets.

 

           I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

                  G+    G    M+   M    M-   W    W-

             Whereby G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

 

m+/M......Seattle +3
M+/M......Steelers -3

Steelers look to have a small edge here in my ratings PLUS the HFA and should be -3.5 home favs.

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #7052

G+ .....Eagles  -1.0

G .......KC Chiefs +1.5

 

Eagles do have an edge here but after accounting for the HFA to Chiefs, that edge is wiped out down to a pick'em/coinflipper SU

Recommend no pregame bets.  Just watch and enjoy...

 
Legend
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Posted: #7053

M- .....Patriots +1

M- .....Dolphins -1

 

Even matchup, I guess.  Miami is supposed to be much better than they showed last Sunday but, ya never really know.  That's why I prefer to hold off on bets for 5 weeks or so to let things sort out as to their true skills... 

 

 
Legend
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Posted: #7054

Week 01 completed:   5 - 4    with 2 - 1 *Best Bets

 
MVP
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Posted: #7055

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Week 01 completed:   5 - 4    with 2 - 1 *Best Bets

an_cheers

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #7056

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

G/M+......LA Rams -5.5M............TITANS +6.0 Decent 1.5 tier edge for Rams, but when subtracting the HFA favoring Titans, I make this line at around -3.5/-4.0 max for the roadies. Homies could have home dog value here for a cover, although if I ultimately choose to bet into this I would insist on at least +7 pts from alt-line (preferably +7.5) or failing that it would be a "watch & wait" for me...
The rams are also travelling east 3 time zones

 
Legend
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Posted: #7057

            I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:

                  G+    G    M+   M    M-   W    W-

             Whereby G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

 

M ........Falcons

G/M+....VIKINGS

 

My ratings - assuming close approximation - are suggesting to me this line should be around -7 on Minny

     

 
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Posted: #7058

Washington drops yo +2.5 looks really tempting vut its unusaul i suspect this game stays closer then i think Commanders +3.5

Mr Evil.
 
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Posted: #7059

Hi Duke , not a bad first week - Profitable peace_5

I did well last year betting 2 team teasers or 2 team mixed sports ML parlays. NFL is the hardest so sad a 50 year pro odds maker. Last year I teased KC almost every week and I sure needed those points. Good luck this year buddy 

 
Legend
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Posted: #7060

M/m-.....Charlie Browns +11.5

 

G+ ......BALTIMORE -11.5

 

My ratings indicate a HUGE difference between their respective tiers!  This margin of difference typically correlates well to around 10 pts on a neutral field!  ...but this is a homer for the Ravens...

 

an_police Mind you anything can happen in sports.  The Ravens could have a bad day...while the Charlie Browns could play over their heads...and then of course there always are the unforseeable intangibles  which can often affect every team sport - INJURIES, bad/unlucky breaks, FLUKES, untimely bad coaching calls and untimely BAD officiating.....ya just never know...sad

 
Legend
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Posted: #7061

Quote Originally Posted by RayRayK:

Hi Duke , not a bad first week - Profitable  I did well last year betting 2 team teasers or 2 team mixed sports ML parlays. NFL is the hardest so sad a 50 year pro odds maker. Last year I teased KC almost every week and I sure needed those points. Good luck this year buddy

@RayRayK

 I hope you keep it up again this season!! thumbs_up

 
Legend
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Posted: #7062

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 136 FBS teams:                   G+    G    M+   M    M-   W    W-              Whereby G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak   M ........Falcons G/M+....VIKINGS   My ratings - assuming close approximation - are suggesting to me this line should be around -7 on Minny

 

Analytical error......I forgot to check injury updates 

Vikings are more banged up than Falcons.

Line on Vikes may be more accurately set around -5.5 (not -7)

 
Legend
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Posted: #7063

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

What follows are NOT MY POSTED BETS...

G..........Commandos +3.5
G+/G.....PACKERS -3.5

 

I have the PACK slightly higher rated on top of the homefield advantage, so in theory, they should be faved -4 or -4.5 imo

I may consider a -3 or -2.5 alt-line, but definitely no higher!

Line has dropped a 1/2 pt to -3 - likely due to the news the PACKERS will be w/o two starting OL - which is a concern.  Commandos are otherwise healthy

PASS.

Daniels is a game changing dual-threat QB.

Will just "watch & wait" for possible LIVE bet opps...

 
Legend
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Posted: #7064

Quote Originally Posted by nmgolf57:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: G/M+......LA Rams -5.5M............TITANS +6.0 Decent 1.5 tier edge for Rams, but when subtracting the HFA favoring Titans, I make this line at around -3.5/-4.0 max for the roadies. Homies could have home dog value here for a cover, although if I ultimately choose to bet into this I would insist on at least +7 pts from alt-line (preferably +7.5) or failing that it would be a "watch & wait" for me...The rams are also travelling east 3 time zones

@nmgolf57

Long travel but maybe the effect won't be too much...

 
Legend
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Posted: #7065

TNF...

 

Leaning   Commandos ...

 
Legend
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Posted: #7066

LIVE BET, no score opening GB drive: Commandos +10.5 -300 alt@B365

 
Legend
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Posted: #7067

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

LIVE BET, no score opening GB drive: Commandos +10.5 -300 alt@B365

Bad idea to gamble on 4th and 3

 
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Posted: #7068

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LIVE BET, no score opening GB drive: Commandos +10.5 -300 alt@B365 Bad idea to gamble on 4th and 3

 

7 - 0 ... GB ball,  mid 2Q... 

LIVE BET:  Packers -395

 

Hoping for a middle

 
Legend
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Posted: #7069

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: LIVE BET, no score opening GB drive: Commandos +10.5 -300 alt@B365 Bad idea to gamble on 4th and 3   7 - 0 ... GB ball,  mid 2Q...  LIVE BET:  Packers -395   Hoping for a middle

I need a Washington TD and my middle is in play..... I expect GB to score 21 or 24 so Commandos need to score 2 TDs by game end...

 
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Posted: #7070

Pack was to conservative last drive 2 runs then a pass. Then dumb penalties and they let Washington back in the game 

Aloha Fakas
 
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Posted: #7071

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

 

LIVE BET, no score opening GB drive: Commandos +10.5 -300 alt@B365

7 - 0 ... GB ball,  mid 2Q...  LIVE BET:  Packers -395  

Hoping for a middle

middle??   <<<< an_horse

 
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Posted: #7072

MIDDLE   ...   an_cheers          an_timeout    let's hear it for a 2 pt conversion          an_speechless

goldfinger 1964
 
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Posted: #7073

Quote Originally Posted by PUSSYGALORE333:

MIDDLE   ...                

let's hear it for a 2 pt conversion

YAY! an_2drinks  

Although even a one pt conversion would have still given me my middle. peace_5

 

2 - 0   tonight

 

 

 
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Posted: #7074

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:   LIVE BET, no score opening GB drive: Commandos +10.5 -300 alt@B365 7 - 0 ... GB ball,  mid 2Q...  LIVE BET:  Packers -395   Hoping for a middle middle??   <<<<

 

Nice  an_clap

 
 
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Posted: #7075

 Originally Posted by fubah2    Although even a one pt conversion would have still given me my middle.    2 - 0   tonight   yes but come on ... they didn't go for 1   an_roll_laugh   glad to see they got there for you ... good luck rest the way (27-16) was little tense on the try  (27-18)  happy time... (get some sleep pg)  quiet

goldfinger 1964
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