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🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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Posted: #7026

cool  My updated ratings for WEEK 02 . . . 

 

G+  Buffalo...Ravens...Eagles

G    Packers...Chargers...Vikings...Lions...Chiefs...Tampa...Wash...Denver...Rams

M+  Dallas....Indy....Cinci.... AZ .... Pitts

M    Seattle...Browns...Houston ...Atlanta... Vegas...Jets...Jags.... SF.... Tenn ....Chicago

M-   Miami....NE.... NYG..... Saints.....Carolina

 
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Posted: #7027

cool My Week 02 preliminary analysis so far has 9 teams circled for further scrutiny as promising and possible bets, pending injury updates of course (as always!)

In most cases the current odds are a 1/2 pt or full point worse than what I prefer so I will either wait for a better line OR grab an alt-line.

 

 

 
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Posted: #7028

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

My Week 02 preliminary analysis so far has 9 teams circled for further scrutiny as promising and possible bets, pending injury updates of course (as always!) In most cases the current odds are a 1/2 pt or full point worse than what I prefer so I will either wait for a better line OR grab an alt-line.

While my capping on these is NOT completed, these look promising from the perspective of my updated NFL ratings:

What follows are NOT MY POSTED BETS...

G..........Commandos +3.5
G+/G.....PACKERS -3.5

 

I have the PACK slightly higher rated on top of the homefield advantage, so in theory, they should be faved -4 or -4.5 imo

I may consider a -3 or -2.5 alt-line, but definitely no higher!

 
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Posted: #7029

cool Analysis only...these are NOT my posted bets.

 

              I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 32 teams:

              G+    G     M+     M     M-     W     W-

            Whereby G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak

 

M- ........Giants +6.0
G/M+.....K'BOYS -5.5

Significant Dallas edge on top of HFA suggests homies -7.0 or -7.5 imo
Dallas is improved. They were on the verge of upsetting the SB champs on the road, but now return to a friendly venue where their fans are pleased with that performance against Eagles. Better yet, they get to face an opponent that was just 3 - 14 -142 net pt diff last year. Sure, the NYG will improve off that debacle, no doubt....but so have the Cowboys! Dallas should be flirting with at least a 10 win season if DAK stays healthy....He's healthy for this game. Bring on the BIG DAK ATTACK...
Despite yielding a whopping -55 more penalty yards, the Commandos nearly DOUBLED the net yardage of Russell Wilson and his Giants! There were no cheap scores in that one as Washington earned a convincing 21 - 6 win. Giants will be facing a Dallas team of similar calibre! Giants will be w/o a key linebacker...

 
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Posted: #7030

@fubah2

 Thanks filor yiur insights sir

Mr Evil.
 
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Posted: #7031

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: My Week 02 preliminary analysis so far has 9 teams circled for further scrutiny as promising and possible bets, pending injury updates of course (as always!) In most cases the current odds are a 1/2 pt or full point worse than what I prefer so I will either wait for a better line OR grab an alt-line. While my capping on these is NOT completed, these look promising from the perspective of my updated NFL ratings: What follows are NOT MY POSTED BETS... G..........Commandos +3.5G+/G.....PACKERS -3.5   I have the PACK slightly higher rated on top of the homefield advantage, so in theory, they should be faved -4 or -4.5 imo I may consider a -3 or -2.5 alt-line, but definitely no higher!

Keep in mind PACKERS have 2 from OL ailing who are GT decisions and possibly LB Quay as well an_beatup

 
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Posted: #7032


m+/M......Jaguars +3.5
M+..........BENGALS -3.5

OMG, Joe Burrow and the Bungles got whupped good up and down the field against the ageless Joe Flacco and his Charlie Browns - who were a pathetic 3 - 14 for -177 net pt diff last yr - among the league's WORST!
But we know Cinci is waaaay better than this. I'm dismissing it as a one-off, and looking for a dramatic performance reversal. OR maybe I'm wrong.
Jags did look good....but remember, they were playing AT HOME and against the pathetic Panthers. Change of venue. And despite what we saw, we know Cinci is far better than Carolina...

My ratings still show a slight edge to BENGALS *PLUS* HFA, suggesting -4.0 or -4.5 here, imo. I would look to take Cinci at a smaller line...

 
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Posted: #7033

Quote Originally Posted by trust-me:

@fubah2  Thanks filor yiur insights sir

@trust-me

 cool TY sir!  BoL this week! clover an_2drinks

 
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Posted: #7034

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Analysis only...these are NOT my posted bets.                 I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 32 teams:               G+    G     M+     M     M-     W     W-             Whereby G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak   M- ........Giants +6.0G/M+.....K'BOYS -5.5 Significant Dallas edge on top of HFA suggests homies -7.0 or -7.5 imoDallas is improved. They were on the verge of upsetting the SB champs on the road, but now return to a friendly venue where their fans are pleased with that performance against Eagles. Better yet, they get to face an opponent that was just 3 - 14 -142 net pt diff last year. Sure, the NYG will improve off that debacle, no doubt....but so have the Cowboys! Dallas should be flirting with at least a 10 win season if DAK stays healthy....He's healthy for this game. Bring on the BIG DAK ATTACK...Despite yielding a whopping -55 more penalty yards, the Commandos nearly DOUBLED the net yardage of Russell Wilson and his Giants! There were no cheap scores in that one as Washington earned a convincing 21 - 6 win. Giants will be facing a Dallas team of similar calibre! Giants will be w/o a key linebacker...

@fubah2

 

thx fubs !     what the heck  so  i bought pts andtook dallas at 4   gl an_2drinks

 

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #7035

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: Analysis only...these are NOT my posted bets.                 I use 7 main tiers for RATING their strength among all 32 teams:               G+    G     M+     M     M-     W     W-             Whereby G = GOOD......... M = Mediocre/Middlin ........W = Weak   M- ........Giants +6.0G/M+.....K'BOYS -5.5 Significant Dallas edge on top of HFA suggests homies -7.0 or -7.5 imoDallas is improved. They were on the verge of upsetting the SB champs on the road, but now return to a friendly venue where their fans are pleased with that performance against Eagles. Better yet, they get to face an opponent that was just 3 - 14 -142 net pt diff last year. Sure, the NYG will improve off that debacle, no doubt....but so have the Cowboys! Dallas should be flirting with at least a 10 win season if DAK stays healthy....He's healthy for this game. Bring on the BIG DAK ATTACK...Despite yielding a whopping -55 more penalty yards, the Commandos nearly DOUBLED the net yardage of Russell Wilson and his Giants! There were no cheap scores in that one as Washington earned a convincing 21 - 6 win. Giants will be facing a Dallas team of similar calibre! Giants will be w/o a key linebacker... @fubah2   thx fubs !     what the heck  so  i bought pts andtook dallas at 4   gl

Good. thumbs_up

K'Boys remain at full health again for Sunday vs NYG

 
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Posted: #7036


M/m-.........Bears +6
G/m+ .......LIONS -5.5

Significant LIONS edge on top of HFA suggests homies -7.5+ imo.
LIONS are not as bad as a very good home team Packers made them look.
But a friendly HOME venue now and they are lazer focussed on righting the ship against a weaker opp...Bears will try to regroup but their offensive performance was uninspiring to say the least and I don't see them above .500 this seson. Bears likely to keep it close in the 1H but after that I expect Detroit to prevail. LIONS were the best team in the NFL thru the reg season last year...

 
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Posted: #7037

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

M/m-.........Bears +6G/m+ .......LIONS -5.5 Significant LIONS edge on top of HFA suggests homies -7.5+ imo.LIONS are not as bad as a very good home team Packers made them look.But a friendly HOME venue now and they are lazer focussed on righting the ship against a weaker opp...Bears will try to regroup but their offensive performance was uninspiring to say the least and I don't see them above .500 this seson. Bears likely to keep it close in the 1H but after that I expect Detroit to prevail. LIONS were the best team in the NFL thru the reg season last year...

looks good to me so i bet detroit    gl clover

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #7038

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: M/m-.........Bears +6G/m+ .......LIONS -5.5 Significant LIONS edge on top of HFA suggests homies -7.5+ imo.LIONS are not as bad as a very good home team Packers made them look.But a friendly HOME venue now and they are lazer focussed on righting the ship against a weaker opp...Bears will try to regroup but their offensive performance was uninspiring to say the least and I don't see them above .500 this seson. Bears likely to keep it close in the 1H but after that I expect Detroit to prevail. LIONS were the best team in the NFL thru the reg season last year... looks good to me so i bet detroit    gl

 

coolYou understand that I haven't yet posted those games as good bets yet, right?

 
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Posted: #7039

PACKERS could be w/o two starting OL as well as WR 

 
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Posted: #7040

G+.....Buffy -6.5
M.......Jets +6.5

 

My ratings give BILLS a very significant edge after accounting for Jets HFA suggesting -7.0 here.

Coin flipper on the spread.

 
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Posted: #7041

G/M+......LA Rams -5.5
M............TITANS +6.0

Decent 1.5 tier edge for Rams, but when subtracting the HFA favoring Titans, I make this line at around -3.5/-4.0 max for the roadies. Homies could have home dog value here for a cover, although if I ultimately choose to bet into this I would insist on at least +7 pts from alt-line (preferably +7.5) or failing that it would be a "watch & wait" for me...

 
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Posted: #7042

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

m+/M......Jaguars +3.5M+..........BENGALS -3.5 OMG, Joe Burrow and the Bungles got whupped good up and down the field against the ageless Joe Flacco and his Charlie Browns - who were a pathetic 3 - 14 for -177 net pt diff last yr - among the league's WORST! But we know Cinci is waaaay better than this. I'm dismissing it as a one-off, and looking for a dramatic performance reversal. OR maybe I'm wrong. Jags did look good....but remember, they were playing AT HOME and against the pathetic Panthers. Change of venue. And despite what we saw, we know Cinci is far better than Carolina... My ratings still show a slight edge to BENGALS *PLUS* HFA, suggesting -4.0 or -4.5 here, imo. I would look to take Cinci at a smaller line...

 

ok thx    i grabbed bengals thumbs_up

 

 

"I'm the MOST HONEST human being that GOD EVER created!" - Donald "the felon" Trump
 
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Posted: #7043

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964:

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: m+/M......Jaguars +3.5M+..........BENGALS -3.5 OMG, Joe Burrow and the Bungles got whupped good up and down the field against the ageless Joe Flacco and his Charlie Browns - who were a pathetic 3 - 14 for -177 net pt diff last yr - among the league's WORST! But we know Cinci is waaaay better than this. I'm dismissing it as a one-off, and looking for a dramatic performance reversal. OR maybe I'm wrong. Jags did look good....but remember, they were playing AT HOME and against the pathetic Panthers. Change of venue. And despite what we saw, we know Cinci is far better than Carolina... My ratings still show a slight edge to BENGALS *PLUS* HFA, suggesting -4.0 or -4.5 here, imo. I would look to take Cinci at a smaller line...   ok thx    i grabbed bengals

@KellyM_1964

 What odds?

 

 
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Posted: #7044

m+/M ......Seattle
M+/M......Steelers

Steelers look to have a tiny edge here in my ratings PLUS the HFA and should be -3.5 home favs.

 
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Posted: #7045

M- .......Panthers +6.5

M+/M....Cardinals -6.5

 

Significant 1.5 tier edge to the HOMETOWN Cards *plus* the HFA and my ratings suggest a line of -7 is indicated here

 
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Posted: #7046

M- .......Panthers +6.5

M+/M....Cardinals -6.5

 

Significant 1.5 tier edge to the HOMETOWN Cards *plus* the HFA and my ratings suggest a line of -7 is indicated here

 
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Posted: #7047

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: m+/M......Jaguars +3.5M+..........BENGALS -3.5 OMG, Joe Burrow and the Bungles got whupped good up and down the field against the ageless Joe Flacco and his Charlie Browns - who were a pathetic 3 - 14 for -177 net pt diff last yr - among the league's WORST! But we know Cinci is waaaay better than this. I'm dismissing it as a one-off, and looking for a dramatic performance reversal. OR maybe I'm wrong. Jags did look good....but remember, they were playing AT HOME and against the pathetic Panthers. Change of venue. And despite what we saw, we know Cinci is far better than Carolina... My ratings still show a slight edge to BENGALS *PLUS* HFA, suggesting -4.0 or -4.5 here, imo. I would look to take Cinci at a smaller line...   ok thx    i grabbed bengals @KellyM_1964  What odds?

 

moneyline  an_cheers

 

 

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Posted: #7048

Quote Originally Posted by fubah2:

Quote Originally Posted by KellyM_1964: Quote Originally Posted by fubah2: m+/M......Jaguars +3.5M+..........BENGALS -3.5 OMG, Joe Burrow and the Bungles got whupped good up and down the field against the ageless Joe Flacco and his Charlie Browns - who were a pathetic 3 - 14 for -177 net pt diff last yr - among the league's WORST! But we know Cinci is waaaay better than this. I'm dismissing it as a one-off, and looking for a dramatic performance reversal. OR maybe I'm wrong. Jags did look good....but remember, they were playing AT HOME and against the pathetic Panthers. Change of venue. And despite what we saw, we know Cinci is far better than Carolina... My ratings still show a slight edge to BENGALS *PLUS* HFA, suggesting -4.0 or -4.5 here, imo. I would look to take Cinci at a smaller line...   ok thx    i grabbed bengals @KellyM_1964  What odds?

 

moneyline  an_cheers

 

 

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Posted: #7049

G/M+......Broncos -1.5
M+..........COLTS +2.0

I do have the Broncos rated slightly higher than the COLTS, but when I subtract for the HFA, actually my ratings suggest it is the COLTS at home should be a tiny fav of -1.0
Both teams look reasonably healthy, though CB WARD (Colts) is in concussion protocol...
I see value in the homies here, assuming my ratings are good and assuming I am not missing something with regard to KEY injuries...
Maybe QB Jones has been reborn after escaping from New York. He sure looked good against a Miami team that was 8 - 9 last year, blowing out Miami 33 - 8.
Meanwhile, Denver won by 8 pts against an opponent that last year was just 3 - 14 for -149 pt diff....and Denver was on homefield! Now they are on the road to face a much better team than the Titans...

 
 
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Posted: #7050


M ...........49ers -3.0
M- ..........SAINTS +3.0

Saints will struggle again this year. Spencer Rattler is NOT the man. Nevertheless except for one 52 yd gallup by Arizona's RB Benson, statistically the Saints OUTPLAYED the Cardinals in a one score loss at home. I have those Cardinals rated slightly higher than the NINERS, so this game should be closer, particularly given how banged up the Niners are. My ratings - if reasonably accurate - suggest NINERS should be tiny road favs but by no higher than -1.5 max when factoring the loss of stars TE Kittle and QB Purdy...

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