🏈🏈🏈 “To BEt, or not to BEt, that is the question” ...Fubah2's risky bets

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My 2024 weekly results:
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Week 01:    1 - 0
Week 02:    3 - 1    (Loser: -115)
Week 03:    5 - 2    (Losers: -110, *-175)
Week 04:    6 - 2    (Losers: -250, -180)
Week 05:    5 - 2    (Losers: *-230, -175)
Week 06:    6 - 0
Week 07:    8 - 4    (Losers: *-108, -115, -153, *-210)
Week 08:    5 - 2    (Losers: -120, -125)
Week 09:    9 - 8   (Losers: -105; +1.5-120; +17.5-250; +3-142; +3.5-150; -150; +3.5-180; -105)
Week 10:    6 - 4    (Losers: -4 140; +120; +8 -128; -127)
Week 11:  16 - 6    (Losers: -150; -6.5 -145; -287; -4 -152; -150; -2.5 -150)
Week 12:    8 - 1    (Loser: -7.5 -125)
Week 13:    7 - 4    (Losers: -118; -150; -130; +4.5 -145)
Week 14:    5 - 1    (Loser: +150 hedge bet)
Week 15:    5 - 1    (Loser: -125 hedge bet) 

Week 16:    3 - 1    (Loser: +8.5 -152)

Week 17:    6 - 3    (Losers: *+3 -140; +0.5 -138; *+12.5 -175 hedge bet)

Week 18:    6 - 3    (Losers: ATL -3 -290; GB -3 -345; *under 43.5 -334)

YTD:  110 - 45     [35 - 11  *Best Bets! ]

@fubah2

I'm LEANING

GL this week 

could be broncos could be bills  Have a great playoffs Fubah…

Or all of the above.....but no, I'm LEANING because I took a painful fall the other day and my back hurts when I recline....so I'm LEANING

@fubah2

Get well soon, Fubah. 

@Europa

 The Fall Guy ouch that not good buddy, shit happens and hope you get well asap You the Man

  Fubah's playoff teams rankings:

*NOTES:
 • Overall W/L record is often VERY deceptive and therefore virtually DISregarded in my assessments
 • Who they played, at what venue, and the margins of W/L results are far more important KEYS in my handicapping methods
- pt. differential overall and specific to "true" Home or Road
- results/pt diff vs all winning teams
- results/pt diff vs winning teams specific to "true" Home or Road
- results/pt diff vs all TOP TEN teams
- results/pt diff vs TOP TEN specific to "true" Home or Road
- absences or in-game injuries which caused diminished performances
- off YPP stats in all above scenarios
- def YPP stats in all above scenarios
- flukes, unforced errors and lucky/UNlucky breaks that clearly altered any game results significantly
- recent performances in all above scenarios (ie, how they performed in September/October is far LESS relevent to November/December....I give more weight to recency)
- very recent momentum (positive or negative)
- CURRENT INJURIES status!!!

With all that in mind:
Lions,
Chiefs, Bills, Ravens, Eagles, Vikes,
Packers, Chargers, Bucs, Commandos
Broncos, Rams, Texans...........Steelers

@Europa  

@Trustme99

Thanks fellas! Pain meds = Should be good to go...I escaped going on IR

BoL with your bets this week!

Wondering if the line move OFF Irish and over to PSU is due to smart money  OR  the rumors of flu affecting several ND players including some key players is confirmed by multiple sources or not

Several days of wildfires and poor air quality
forced the NFL on Thursday to take the
extraordinary step of moving Monday night's
game to State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Arizona.

Arizona I'm on it.

I’m nothing special capping NFL….But I really like the Chargers on the road. Two Teams going in different directions imo. Would like your thoughts Duke (JW) 

@JJWoods

  Just keep building on your profits - that's really the bottom line with sports-gambling.  Too many times over the years (including 2024 on this website) I've watched so-called "experts" fail, often miserably. 

My capping sheets have the CHARGERS "circled" - suggesting highly likely to win SU, and with a low spread and smallish ML the "value" appears to be there. However, I'm also expecting a close game and am seriously considering for a middle opp - maybe LAC ML and taking an alt-line to stretch the dog spread for Houston....or waiting for LIVE opps to make it happen....

  What's your take, JJ?

[Quote: Originally Posted by fubah2]

When I look at upcoming games where one team holds MASSIVE edges over their significantly weaker opponent, my handicapping sheets "circle" those for su wins!  I have subsequently used those indicators to make MOST of my su bet selections!

 Last 7 weeks:

"circled"   = 56 - 12  su and  41 - 24 - 2 ATS!

@fubah2

My confidence in Herbert over CJ is telling to me. Love Texans weapons on offense especially Nico and Mixon… But that’s where it stops for me.  I think LAC defense will be a difference maker.  Really liked the way they played down the stretch.  Texans home field is nice but certainly not intimidating.  Ryans is one of my favorites in the league, but something about Harbaugh…the guy flat wins.  I would think 1-2 road teams win, and this is the one I like best.  Thanks for asking, best of luck and congratulations on an outstanding season.  

Jack woods 

@fubah2

 So you circle the team straight up no spread your saying Fubah? 

Hope your recovery is going good fubah.

Praying 4 Ya

my other road team to win would be Commanders 

@fubah2

 N.D win or lose?

@JJWoods

 Who cares 

@Trustme99

 Correct.  My handicapping method is primarily to determine which team will most likely win SU ...then I dig deeper to assess their chances of covering a spread as well, although that carries a higher risk of failure so I usually stick with the ML or bet on very small fav spreads, if at all.  I don't discount betting on a dog to cover an inviting spread (not a ML dog)  but it hasn't occurred too often at least for me.

This WC weekend, my capping sheets (I still do it the old fashioned way, with papers spread out all over my table) indicate MASSIVE EDGES for Chargers, Ravens, Bills and Vikes.  I am posting my bet: VIKINGS -135 *BB now as I expect the odds to rise even more now that the venue has changed to a neutral site

N.D as in Notre Dame from Thursday...? Yeah I posted on their ML several days before and then added a live bet on them at -1.  Hope you earned some profit too!